The P / E10 level always drops to 7 or 8 (one - half of fair value) in the years
following bull market tops.
Not exact matches
After the third longest
bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend -
following components within our measures of
market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the
top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period average) and cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9 - year high.
Therefore, it is likely that 2013 will see a
bull market top,
followed by a relatively short, likely sharp, bear
market.
My suggestion for using a moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the
Top Endowments and Avoid Bear
Markets and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend
Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in
Bull or Bear
Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.
This is a simply strategy used in various portfolio strategies made popular in books such as Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the
Top Endowments and Avoid Bear
Markets and by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend
Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in
Bull or Bear
Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.