And here is how New York City's busiest airport, John F. Kennedy International, would fare under a 10 -
foot sea level rise scenario:
Not exact matches
Silver Award: Alex Kuffner The Providence Journal «
Rising seas, rising stakes» Nov. 20, 2016 «Losing ground» March 19, 2017 «On the brink» July 9, 2017 Judges praised Alex Kuffner for his comprehensive look at the risks facing Rhode Island communities from either a once - in - a-century hurricane or a sea level rise of seven feet by the end of the century, as projected in a worst - case scenario by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (
Rising seas,
rising stakes» Nov. 20, 2016 «Losing ground» March 19, 2017 «On the brink» July 9, 2017 Judges praised Alex Kuffner for his comprehensive look at the risks facing Rhode Island communities from either a once - in - a-century hurricane or a sea level rise of seven feet by the end of the century, as projected in a worst - case scenario by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (
rising stakes» Nov. 20, 2016 «Losing ground» March 19, 2017 «On the brink» July 9, 2017 Judges praised Alex Kuffner for his comprehensive look at the risks facing Rhode Island communities from either a once - in - a-century hurricane or a
sea level rise of seven
feet by the end of the century, as projected in a worst - case
scenario by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The analysis, which used land elevation and tidal data, found that 460 acres, or about a sixth of Hallandale Beach, would be below
sea level during high tide under a 3 -
foot scenario of
rise, according to Nancy Gassman, a natural resources administrator for Broward County's Natural Resources Planning and Management Division who worked on the assessment.
«Regional
sea -
level scenarios: Helping US Northeast plan for faster - than - global
rise: Global
sea level could
rise by as much as 8
feet by 2100 in a worst - case
scenario.»
«When we modeled future shoreline change with the increased rates of
sea level rise (SLR) projected under the IPCC's «business as usual»
scenario, we found that increased SLR causes an average 16 - 20
feet of additional shoreline retreat by 2050, and an average of nearly 60
feet of additional retreat by 2100,» said Tiffany Anderson, lead author and post-doctoral researcher at the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.
Moreover, in a worst - case
scenario, global
sea level could
rise by about 8
feet by 2100.
The report provides a range of possible
scenarios, from at least 1
foot of global
sea -
level rise by 2100 to a worst - case
rise that's 1.6
feet higher than a
scenario in a key 2012 study that the report updates.
«Hybrid» solution with small barriers affordable now Assuming a «middle climate change»
scenario of about a
foot of
sea -
level rise by midcentury, the team further assessed the cost - effectiveness of each flood - control strategy by measuring whether its benefits, or avoided risk, would outweigh the investment costs.
On the high end, recent work suggests that 4
feet is plausible.23, 3,6,7,8 In the context of risk - based analysis, some decision makers may wish to use a wider range of
scenarios, from 8 inches to 6.6
feet by 2100.10,2 In particular, the high end of these
scenarios may be useful for decision makers with a low tolerance for risk (see Figure 2.26 on global
sea level rise).10, 2 Although scientists can not yet assign likelihood to any particular
scenario, in general, higher emissions
scenarios that lead to more warming would be expected to lead to higher amounts of
sea level rise.
«Up to 8.5
feet of global
sea level rise is possible by 2100» in a worst - case emissions
scenario.
Worse case
scenario: if the ice covering all of Antarctica melted,
sea level could
rise 10 times that much (160
feet).
Swiss Re used climate change
scenarios by incorporating
rising sea levels in our underwriting tools so that the city could translate
feet of
sea level rise into dollars of potential economic losses.
Jim has made his actually worst case
scenarios abundantly clear in many interviews, in the Washington Post for instance: «
sea level rise that can be measured by
feet more than inches», and in the ERL papers itself «measured in meters», and in the quote you picked up on.
That conclusion, based on a new, sophisticated computer model, makes the worst - case
scenario of
sea level rise — an increase of 6
feet or so, on average, by 2100 — look less likely to play out.
Each base's exposure is calculated based on the National Climate Assessment's midrange or «intermediate - high»
sea level rise scenario (referred to in this analysis as «intermediate»), which projects a global average increase of 3.7
feet above 2012
levels, by 2100; and a «highest»
scenario based on a more rapid rate of increase, which projects a global average increase of 6.3
feet.
He was forced to correct that statement after it was pointed out that LAX is at least 108
feet above
sea level, and therefore safe from
rising seas even under the most extreme
scenario.
Under the worst - case
scenario investigated, if pollution continues unabated, and if
seas respond to ongoing warming by
rising at the fastest rates considered likely,
sea levels could
rise more than 4
feet this century alone, wiping out coastal infrastructure and driving communities inland.
Vanity Fair published a «worst - case
scenario» photo illustration of Manhattan drowned by an 80 -
foot sea -
level rise, the skyscrapers poking up from what has become part of the Atlantic Ocean.
The research also finds that
sea levels will
rise between 2.3 and 4
feet by 2300 even under best - case
scenarios.
The disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is speeding up, providing more evidence we are headed for the worst - case
scenario of
sea level rise — three to six
feet (or more) by 2100 — unless total warming is limited to «well below 2 °C,» as Paris envisions.
If all the ice on Greenland were to melt, it would raise
sea level by 7 meters (23
feet), but even under a high temperature
rise scenario, it could take many centuries for it to melt completely.
«By the end of this century, global
sea level is expected to
rise by more than 2
feet in a low emissions
scenario or nearly 3.5
feet in a higher emissions
scenario.
Last August, I wrote about what that near - term worse case
scenario might look like: Should its melt rate continue to trend above previous estimates, Antarctica may produce an extra
foot of
sea level rise by 2100, which would pose a threat to low - lying coastal areas worldwide.
The leaked summary said the IPCC believed a worst case
scenario could see
sea levels rising by as much as three
feet (90 centimeters) by the year 2100.
These projections indicate that, depending on ice melt
scenarios, the Mid-Hudson's
sea level could
rise from between two and six
feet by the end of the century.
An «intermediate
scenario» that projects carbon emissions peaking around mid-century and about 4
feet of
sea level rise globally, with ice melting at a moderate rate that increases over time.
According to that report, although a
sea level rise of 1.6
feet or more would negatively affect large portions of the City, the «worst - case
scenario» for
sea level rise projects a 1.6
foot increase to be reached in 2047 assuming no mitigation or adaptation efforts... Furthermore, even assuming a 2 -
foot sea level rise, only 0.1 square miles of land in the City that isn't potentially protected by levees or other flood control structures is below two
feet of elevation.»
All of these things point to a precarious future for our species — a business - as - usual
scenario will mean some six
feet of
sea level rise and some regions of the world becoming uninhabitable or disappearing under
rising seas by the end of the century.