I would also like to add that the paper: Glacial geological evidence
for the medieval warm period (Climatic Change, Volume 26, Numbers 2 - 3, pp. 143 - 169, March 1994)- Jean M. Grove, Roy Switsur is available as PDF on Google Books.
Tonyb, In response to your first post I think you should be aware that Grindsted et al. 2010 addressed the Sea Level Rise Issue
for the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and has shown that sea levels at the peak height of the MWP were 12 - 22 cm higher than today.
However, tossing out these same data sets results in the deflation of the temperature reconstruction calculations
for the Medieval Warm Period.
Mann further denies the mountain of global evidence
for the Medieval Warm Period.
And that there is good evidence
for a medieval warm period and much cooler times, for example during the 15th century and early 19th century the Thames River froze over it was so cold.
McIntyre and McKitrick were able to show that the Hockey Stick chart was based on cherry picked use of data, failed to comply with accepted standards in statistics and signal processing, and ignored compelling evidence
for the Medieval Warm Period where historical records demonstrate that it was just as warm, if not warmer, then than the 20th century.
For the Medieval Warm Period you might try the following graph which shows six different reconstructions, three of which reach back to 900 AD.
Soon and Baliunas just showed there was a mountain of evidence
for the medieval warm period and other natural climate variability in history — a very good paper that is now accepted by climate science as more indicative of what actually occured in climate history.....
He basically does a literature review
for the medieval warm period and the little ice age.
There is considerable evidence
for the Medieval Warm Period and other periods of warmer temperatures.
Figure 1: Reconstructed surface temperature anomaly
for Medieval Warm Period (950 to 1250 A.D.), relative to the 1961 — 1990 reference period.
Figure 1 - Reconstructed surface temperature anomalies
for the Medieval Warm Period (950-1250) compared to a 1961 - 1990 reference period.
Villalba, R., «Tree - ring and Glacial Evidence
for the Medieval Warm Epoch and the Little Ice Age in Southern South America».
The problem with odds
for the medieval warm period, as you have described it, is not possible because the warming was localized, patchy over time, and not «extreme.»
I would also like to add that the paper: Glacial geological evidence
for the medieval warm period (Climatic Change, Volume 26, Numbers 2 - 3, pp. 143 - 169, March 1994)- Jean M. Grove, Roy Switsur is available as PDF on Google Books.
Villalba (1994) «Tree Ring and Glacial Evidence
for the Medieval Warm Epoch and the Little Ice Age in Southern South America» Climate Change 26, 183 - 197.
For example, if a proxy record indicated that a drier condition existed in one part of the world from 800 to 850, it would be counted as equal evidence
for a Medieval Warming Period as a different proxy record that showed wetter conditions in another part of the world from 1250 to 1300.
The results confirm the reason
for the Medieval Warming and the Little Ice Age (1300 — 1850) with its three separate Grand Minima (Spörer Maunder, and Dalton).»
For example, if a proxy record indicated that a drier condition existed in one part of the world from 800 to 850, it would be counted as equal evidence
for a Medieval Warming Period as a different proxy record that showed wetter conditions in another part of the world from 1250 to 1300.
Not exact matches
There is no evidence
for significant increase of CO2 in the
medieval warm period, nor
for a significant decrease at the time of the subsequent little ice age.
See the RealClimate discussions of the Little Ice Age and
Medieval Warm Period
for explanations of why both the Viking colonization of Greenland and the freezing of the River Thames actually tells us relatively little about past climate change.
«The climate reconstructions
for the past 2,000 years have led to a simplistic picture of a
Medieval Warm Period and a Little Ice Age.
Try here
for what the hockey stick implies (and doesn't), here and here
for more about the
medieval warm period, and Jared Diamond
for information about the Norse settlements.
Dear Sir, I have found 193 papers (2003 +) on co2science.org, standing
for the existence of a
medieval warm period, and also added 6 more papers
for 2010.
Other tree ring data, 10 Be data, orbital satellite data, borehole data, ice coring data, etc. show,
for example, the lengthy
medieval warming which is practically absent from the hockey stick.
If you look at the proxy portion of the new Moberg graphic, you see nothing that would be problematic
for opponents of the hockey stick: it shows a striking
Medieval Warm Period (MWP), a cold Little Ice Age and 20th century
warming not quite reaching MWP levels by 1979, when the proxy portion of the study ends.
What the «Hockey Stick» tried to do was erase the
Medieval Warm Period
for the political purpose of making the present
warming appear to be a crisis.
For example, bristlecone pines are known to be CO2 fertilized, creating a possible confounding problem if they are used in temperature reconstructionA figure from Mann's own website suggested that the
medieval warm period reappeared if bristlecone pines were excluded from the reconstruction.
Evidence
for regional warmth during
medieval times can be found in a diverse but more limited set of records including ice cores, tree rings, marine sediments, and historical sources from Europe and Asia, but the exact timing and duration of
warm periods may have varied from region to region, and the magnitude and geographic extent of the warmth are uncertain.
The building is a fantastic imitation of a
medieval castle, which was equipped with some revolutionary modern conveniences
for its time, such as running water, flushing toilets and a
warm air heating system.
Medieval villages of Provence, grand castles, city squares with cafes & markets, narrow streets
for exploring and shopping, beautiful wineries, excellent food,
warm beaches on the Mediterranean, the South has it all!
Medieval villages of Provence, grand castles, city squares with cafes and markets, narrow streets
for exploring and shopping, beautiful wineries, excellent food,
warm beaches on the Mediterranean, the South has it all!
At least you appear to be one of the rare AGW» ers admitting the importance of solar forcing and who at the same time implicitly refutes Mann's hockey stick by acknowledging the proxies that established the existence of the Little Ice Age, and
for that matter, the
Medieval Warm Period.
No one on either side of the fence, aside from a few crackpots, denies that the world is now
warmer than it's been
for a very long time — at least since the
Medieval Warm Period and possibly earlier.
Let us take
for example something you touched on, ``... A big issue here is that any correlation between the two can be due to CO2 outgassing...» plus the argument that «the
Medieval Warm Period was
warmer than today» or «CO2 increases lag temperature increases by 800 years».
As another example, Montford makes the claim that if you eliminate just two of the proxies used
for the MBH98 reconstruction since 1400, the Stahle and NOAMER PC1 series, «you got a completely different result — the
Medieval Warm Period magically reappeared and suddenly the modern
warming didn't look quite so frightening.»
In the more recent papers (Mann et al, 2009
for instance), Greenland is already shown as
warmer in the
medieval period — as are areas in Northern Europe (fig 2), so why you think that Vinther et al will affect these these materially is unclear.
The conclusion that certain regions were similarly
warm (i.e. comparable to late 20th century) during
medieval times is uncontroversial (
for example, this is true w / the Obsorn and Briffa, 2006 study mentioned in the main article).
The late
Medieval warm period is called a climatic optimum
for a good reason.
In 1998, Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard - Smithsonian Center
for Astrophysics published a paper in the journal Climate Research, arguing that there really had been a
Medieval warm period.
In so far as M&M are trying to distort the climate data over the last 1000 years to show that the so - called «
Medieval Warm Period» replicates or exceeds the current
warming — and so natural variability could possibly account
for that
warming — I thought it worthwhile to put out some information about
Medieval climate.
if the proxy record showed a period longer than 50 yr of cooling, wetness or dryness during the Little Ice Age, and similarly
for a period of 50 yr or longer
for warming, wetness or dryness during the
Medieval Warm Period??
This is the linchpin: if the difference between pre-industrial and modern temperatures is not as dramatic as this analysis indicates — i.e. if modern GLOBAL temperatures are comparable to those of the
Medieval Warm Period (named
for a REGIONAL phenomenon)-- then there is little need
for urgency.
Try here
for what the hockey stick implies (and doesn't), here and here
for more about the
medieval warm period, and Jared Diamond
for information about the Norse settlements.
A globally
warm medieval period could be a simple forced response to increased solar, in which case it doesn't imply any larger intrinsic variability than already assumed, and since solar has been pretty much constant over the last 50 years, improvements to our understanding of solar forced climate changes are irrelevant
for the last few decades.
Fair enough, but two points are clear — the two
warm periods reconstructed —
Medieval and late 1700s are > 0.6 C cooler than recent NH anomalies of around 1C CRU], which means that while the details differ, McIntyre's plot is fully consistent with the conclusion of Mann et al 2008 that recent warmth is unprecedented
for 1,000 years or more.
Historically, the
warm periods such as the
Medieval Climate Optimum were beneficial
for civilization.
[14] Although there is an extreme scarcity of data from Australia (
for both the
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age) evidence from wave built shingle terraces
for a permanently full Lake Eyre during the ninth and tenth centuries is consistent with this La Niña - like configuration, though of itself inadequate to show how lake levels varied from year to year or what climatic conditions elsewhere in Australia were like.
If,
for example, scientists had somehow underestimated the climate change between
Medieval times and the Little Ice Age, or other natural climate changes, without corresponding errors in the estimated size of the causes of the changes, that would suggest stronger amplifying feedbacks and larger future
warming from rising greenhouse gases than originally estimated.
For most recent sampling see: New Peer - Reviewed Study finds «Solar changes significantly alter climate» (11-3-07)(LINK) & «New Peer - Reviewed Study Halves the Global Average Surface Temperature Trend 1980 — 2002» (LINK) & New Study finds
Medieval Warm Period «0.3 C
Warmer than 20th Century» (LINK)
For a more comprehensive sampling of peer - reviewed studies earlier in 2007 see «New Peer - Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill Global
Warming Fears» LINK]