One interpretation of Fig. 4 is that there is no real missing energy because the error bars are not adequately accounted for and they are quite big, especially
for OHC changes from 1 year to the next (e. g., Lyman et al. 2010), but that is really the point here.
Indeed, how to specify a conditional density
for OHC observations?
Same energy flux at the TOA, but quite a different picture
for the OHC trends.
We thank M. A. Balmaseda and M. Davis for their comments on the manuscript, J. Garcı» a-Serrano
for the OHC from the Ishii and Kimoto29 reanalysis, N. Ferry and G. Garric for the GLORYS2v1 reanalysis, and O. Mula - Valls and D. Manubens - Gil for their technical support.
As
for OHC and the itty bitty La Niña that is now on the table, how can an itty bitty La Niña get you anywhere?
If the surface temperature of the oceans was below normal from 1250 to 1400 AD until 1910, it just might take more than 100 years
for the OHC to recover to «normal».
The yellow is the 3.7 for CO2 plus 0.8 Watts
for OHC recovery which would be the approximate error if the sea surface temperature where under estimated by 0.2 C.
As
for OHC, it is likely to be a combination of internal variability, not accounting for heat increases below 700m, and issues with the observing system — compare to the Lyman et al analysis.
Also, do you think that sea level rise is a good proxy
for OHC?
TimTheToolMan asks: Regarding model output
for OHC, Gavin writes:» As before, I don't have the post-2003 model output» Why not?
The fundamental reason
for the OHC valvetrain is that it offers an increase in the engine's ability to exchange induction and exhaust gases.
Not exact matches
If we want to know why SST is changing at observed rates (long term), or why it takes so long
for changes in atmospheric dynamics to register fully in the ocean,
OHC is critical, but if we simply want to quantify the change, the direct measurements are more appropriate.
The
OHC design allows
for higher engine speeds than comparable cam - in - block designs, as a result of having lower valvetrain mass.
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A 50cc
OHC four - stroke engine provides ample power
for around - town trips while also keeping the fun factor high and sipping fuel.
His description should be read
for details, but the essence of the evidence lies in the observation that ocean heat uptake (
OHC) has been increasing during the post-1950 warming.
Today's uncertainty comes from evaluating feedbacks and tipping points such as how much longer the Ocean will keep sucking up heat and CO2 (
OHC) or how fast non-linear developments will occur or
for how long we can sustain civilisation based on conservative scenario assessments RCP8.5.
Since
OHC uptake efficiency associated with surface warming is low compared with the rate of radiative restoring (increase in energy loss to space as specified by the climate feedback parameter), an important internal contribution must lead to a loss rather than a gain of ocean heat; thus the observation of
OHC increase requires a dominant role
for external forcing.
Which is reassuring, but a little puzzling as I have seen figures such as a requirement
for ~ 0.9 W / m ^ 2 quoted and hence a search
for additional stored heat beyond what can be reasonably deduced from the unadjusted NOAA
OHC data.
Up - thread he has wedded himself to the childish idea that it is the increase in atmospheric temperatures (complete with «hiatus») that is responsible
for increases in
OHC.
Even putting aside the
OHC data and fingerprinting, there is absolutely no evidence in model simulations (or in prevailing reconstructions of the Holocene), that an unforced climate would exhibit half - century timescale global temperature swings of order ~ 1 C. I don't see a good theoretical reason why this should be the case, but since Judith lives on «planet observations» it should be a pause
for thought.
with respect,
OHC is not that well characterized
for the post-1950 period.
@Matthew Marler (51)--
OHC since 1950, while subject to some uncertainty, is sufficiently characterized to know it's strongly positive, which excludes a more than minor role
for internal contributions to the warming.
And as
for Hansen, he predicted decades ago that the
OHC data would be rising — many years before the analysis was done.
The mean temperature change or the
OHC increase is an integral over all of that and therefore can be estimated to higher precision than any individual reading (just like
for the weather station record).
(
For instance, changes in wind or salinity or seaweed, surface warming in regions (in) sensitive to
OHC, perhaps the southern oceans or perhaps NH / SH with their different proportions of land, or variations in the frequency / amplitude of a known oceanic wobble.)
For BNO (S) alone in its last quarter cycle 2000 - 14 (for which we have the best data OHC) the ΔOHC 0 - 2000m record is 4x larger and of opposite sign (contradicting the assumption of BNO = AGW by suggesting AGW is 5x bigger in magnitude than BNO (S) for this period if BNO (S) did exist using 0 - 2000m ocean storag
For BNO (S) alone in its last quarter cycle 2000 - 14 (
for which we have the best data OHC) the ΔOHC 0 - 2000m record is 4x larger and of opposite sign (contradicting the assumption of BNO = AGW by suggesting AGW is 5x bigger in magnitude than BNO (S) for this period if BNO (S) did exist using 0 - 2000m ocean storag
for which we have the best data
OHC) the ΔOHC 0 - 2000m record is 4x larger and of opposite sign (contradicting the assumption of BNO = AGW by suggesting AGW is 5x bigger in magnitude than BNO (S)
for this period if BNO (S) did exist using 0 - 2000m ocean storag
for this period if BNO (S) did exist using 0 - 2000m ocean storage).
It appears I must write a post
for those, like yourself, who are skeptical of skeptics, and provide a more detailed analysis of the rise in
OHC.
Bob, Pielke Pere has a question
for you at the end of JC's «Where's the Missing Heat» thread, about the source
for your assertion that
OHC has risen just recently.
I'm still waiting
for Gates to tell me how recent
OHC warming trends compare to those of 100 years ago.
There's no evidence of an anthropogenic signal in the source of fuel
for ENSO, which is the tropical Pacific
OHC.
OHC may be one of the best measures of the top of atmosphere imbalance available - averaged over long time periods, global, representing (
for the full depth of the oceans) ~ 93 % of the energy changes.
The biggest surprise
for Bedwetter Bandwagon riders is that
OHC is somehow increasing faster at depth than in the surface layer.
If you think about the fact that
OHC trend is responsible
for over 90 % of warming due to TOA imbalance, you may reasonably expect the surface T changes (where only 3 % of that imbalance energy goes) will not be very well correlated.
I didn't attempt to run a trend
for 1990 - 2000, as
OHC trend
for that period was hard to read.
The five ensemble members of the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis
OHC for 0 — 700m and full - depth ocean are shown, where they have been aligned
for 1980 to 1985, in 1022 J.
The three decadal surface temp trends behave as I imagine
for periods when
OHC rises quickly or is flattish.
Gavin Schmidt says: «The deep ocean is really massive and even
for the large changes in
OHC we are discussing the impact on the deep temperature is small (I would guess less than 0.1 deg C or so).
For periods when there was a clear linear trend change in
OHC (0 - 700 & 0 - 2000), there seems to be an inverse correlation with surface temperatures.
Of course with
OHC, the data are much more noisy and everyone agrees that one can only go so far in accounting
for the year - on - year variations.
Ultimately our paper shows that all three of the main conclusions in DK12 are faulty: the rate of
OHC increase has not slowed in recent years, there is no evidence
for «climate shifts» in global heat content data, and the recent
OHC data do not support the conclusion that the net climate feedback is negative or that climate sensitivity is low.
The data also show that failing to account
for increases in deep
OHC is a problematic omission.
DK12 used ocean heat content (
OHC) data
for the upper 700 meters of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of
OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence
for periods of «climate shifts», and 3) that the recent
OHC data indicate that the net climate feedback is negative, which would mean that climate sensitivity (the total amount of global warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is low.
DK12 compounded their erroneous analysis by attempting to calculate the net climate feedback based solely on their estimated 2002 - 2008
OHC increase
for the uppermost 700 meters, and only considering the CO2 and solar radiative forcings, ignoring the significant aerosol forcing,
for example.
Temperature, is selected
for a variety of reasons, but there are probably better metrics like
OHC or energy imbalance.
For some inexplicable reason NOAA publish graphs of ocean heat content (
OHC) but not ocean temperatures — the later are what the equipment measures, and what we relate to.
Approximate conversions between changes in ocean heat content (
OHC) and temperature,
for the world's oceans: