I have been arguing
for asset deflation and price inflation for some time now, and that is not a mix that I would enjoy trying to manage, if I were on the FOMC.
Not exact matches
If you've been on the site
for awhile, you have a head start because we've already discussed the importance of a discipline known as
asset allocation, which involves selecting among different
asset classes to build a well - balanced portfolio that can weather different economic environments, tax regimes, global conditions, inflation or
deflation, and a host of other variables that history has shown will fluctuate over time.
There is a natural tendency
for asset values to decline in line with
deflation, whereas the nominal value of debt is constant (and, when interest costs are added, the nominal value of monetary obligations actually increases).
Unfortunately, Mr. Krugman's failure to see today's economic problem as one of debt
deflation reflects his failure (suffered by most economists, to be sure) to recognize the need
for debt writedowns,
for restructuring the banking and financial system, and
for shifting taxes off labor back onto property, economic rent and
asset - price («capital») gains.
Because some
asset prices may fall more abruptly than they rise, and because the effects of downward moves in
asset prices on demand may be larger due to the greater negative impact of
deflation on the net worth of borrowers — witness the United States in the 1930s or Japan in the 1990s, the case
for adjusting monetary policy in response to negative
asset price shocks is commonly considered more compelling than in the alternative context.
After seven years of fighting
deflation, central bankers may have at least won a battle, with implications
for asset prices over the next 6 to 12 months.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Global Investment Committee (GIC), a group of seasoned investment professionals with whom I meet regularly to review the economic and political environment and
asset allocation models
for Wealth Management clients, believes
deflation fears have gone too far and have become too embedded in both investor psyches and market structures.
Perhaps the long end of the Treasury curve is worth a little allocation of
assets here, if only as a
deflation hedge, but if the Fed is going to start lightening up on their QE, and the Treasury will be having high issuance, I might want to stand back
for a while while supply will be high, and try to buy near the end of the quarterly refunding.
Browne's Permanent Portfolio was also based on the principle that you should hold
asset classes that would thrive during four economic scenarios: stocks
for prosperity, cash
for recessions, gold
for inflation protection, and long - term bonds
for deflation.
As I've written, I'm certainly not that hopeful
for growth prospects in Europe, or most of the developed world — but a decision to avoid the region altogether (on
deflation fears) is not a call I'm prepared to make, I think there will continue to be plenty of interesting discounted
asset opportunities to focus on.
We look at an overview of the current financial crisis and the reasons
for it — Toxic
assets and why the banks lent so much to people with so little — The Role of The Bank of England and whether reduction in interest rates is working — The possibility of
Deflation — Short selling of bank shares — The World shedding 70,000 + jobs a day — Madoff — How long the recession is likely to last.
«Either this sharp price correction will act as a catalyst
for expanding... institutional involvement in this market — or it will become a stage in the
deflation of a remarkable and historic
asset bubble,» El - Erian concluded.
«Either this sharp price correction will act as a catalyst
for expanding what, until now, has been quite limited institutional involvement in this market — or it will become a stage in the
deflation of a remarkable and historic
asset bubble,» he said.