The potential for coal demand growth in China is limited, but the country's supply - side reforms will be critical factors
for coal prices in the coming years.
Data from China, the world's largest coal consumer, shows some signs of a slowdown ahead, which does not bode well
for coal prices.
Not exact matches
Its
coal volumes have been falling
for several years, and the combination of tougher environmental regulations and, in all probability, continued low natural - gas
prices make it likely that the decline will persist.
BHP Billiton also said Tuesday that its annual profit fell nearly 30 per cent on lower
prices for copper,
coal and iron ore.
For shareholders, it made financial sense to get out of the industry a year ago, when mining stocks and
coal prices were collapsing.
Coal prices in general were driven even lower in 2016 due to low natural gas prices and warmer - than - usual winter temperatures that cut down demand for coal as an electricity generator, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administrat
Coal prices in general were driven even lower in 2016 due to low natural gas
prices and warmer - than - usual winter temperatures that cut down demand
for coal as an electricity generator, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administrat
coal as an electricity generator, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Strike Energy's share
price has been on a white knuckle ride over the last few weeks as investors desperately try to work out if it is going to be the next large cap gas producer in Australia, or fail whilst daring to create a new technical frontier in the search
for coal seam gas riches.
Not only that, it would have a cascading effect across the western Canadian economy, with
prices for commodities like copper, coking
coal (used to make steel girders
for apartment blocks) and even energy probably tanking.
With the Chinese market a major driver of
coal demand in Asia, any policy changes in the country will affect
prices, contributing to the likelihood of continued
price volatility in the seaborne
coal market, wrote Wood Mackenzie's principal analyst
for mining and metals fundamentals research, Rory Simington in a Nov. 16 report.
While
coal experiences more ups and downs than other commodities — the weather can have an effect on
prices — the black rock has been in use
for centuries.
«
Coal is only viable to extract when the
price is very high,» said Chris Bollinger, an economics professor and director of the Center
for Business and Economics at the University of Kentucky, which recently published the 2018 Kentucky Annual Economic Report.
The resulting plunge in
coal prices has turned into hard times
for global
coal miners.
The package includes a plan to phase out
coal - fired electricity generation by 2030, a commitment to generate 30 per cent of Alberta's electricity from renewable sources by 2030, new financing
for energy efficiency, and an economy - wide
price on carbon pollution.
The largest US
coal producer,
for one, lost more than US$ 500 million last year due to falling
prices.
A slowdown in the growth of China's
coal demand, due to more tepid economic growth and fuel substitution, has sent the
prices that Australia fetches
for its thermal
coal plunging from US$ 125 a tonne in early 2012 to around US$ 70 a tonne.
From the mid 2000s, the
prices for commodities used to produce steel and generate energy — including iron ore,
coal and natural gas — rose sharply.
And at the same time, he said he's going to increase hydraulic fracturing, which is the main reason that
prices have gone down
for natural gas and that's what put
coal miners out of work,» Sandalow said.
China's demand
for resources to supply its industrial expansion has put upward pressure on
prices for steel and its raw materials (iron ore, coking
coal), and on the costs of shipping.
Chinese growth has meant enormous demand and rising
prices for many of Canada's resources, particularly
coal and oil, as well as base metals such as copper, nickel and aluminum.
The major reason
for this is the strong profitability of the industry — the
price of both the ingredients (iron ore,
coal, freight, fluxes etc.) and the finished steel has decreased, but the costs of producing a ton of steel fell more, so the profit margins have actually improved.
The plan contains measures that will help Canada hit its obligations under the Paris Agreement, such as introducing carbon
pricing, phasing out
coal - burning power stations and boosting support
for clean - energy technologies.
A key element in this shift is China; the value of Chinese exports to Canada tripled over this period and Canadian exports to China, while still small relative to exports to the US, have grown steadily in value driven by commodity exports which have been buoyed by high
prices and huge demand in China
for key Canadian exports such as minerals (nickel, coking
coal, potash, copper and iron ore), pulp and lumber.
Goldman Sachs has boosted its
price forecast
for coking
coal and copper and upgraded Teck Resources Ltd (USA)(NYSE: TCK) from Neutral to Buy.
Cele notes that, «the demand from China
for iron - ore continues to grow, but at a declining pace, further exacerbating
pricing pressure,» meaning that Vale's considerable investment in nickel,
coal, fertilisers and copper will only partially mitigate the impact of the increase in iron - ore mining capacity globally on the company.
By: Dylan Slater 26th August 2016 According to consulting engineers and scientists SRK Consulting South Africa, the fact there are signs of resurgence in platinum, a stronger gold
price and growing
coal exports to India should be triggers
for South Africa's mining leadership to grasp the opportunities it missed in the last... →
Recent negotiations have secured large increases in steaming
coal contract
prices for 2004 — reportedly as high as 70 per cent in US dollar terms — which will substantially increase
prices received by exporters in coming months.
The materials sector has risen by 16 per cent, boosted by continuing strength in base metals
prices and expectations of substantial increases in contract
prices for coal and iron ore.
For iron ore and
coal, substantial increases in contract
prices are set to take effect later this year, building on the already sharp increases of last year.
Record high
prices in Asia have had several impacts, including providing economic incentive to bring on additional supply, maintaining a continued reason to burn much cheaper
coal despite the negative environmental consequences and a search by consuming nations
for secure supply options.
Rapid growth in global steel demand has also boosted contract
prices for other bulk commodities; coking
coal contract
prices increased, on average, by 25 — 35 per cent in US dollar terms in recent negotiations, while iron ore contract
prices have risen by close to 20 per cent.
However,
coal demand can continue to decline if natural gas
prices stay low
for a very long time allowing further replacement of
coal - fired power plants with gas - fired ones.
Negotiations
for coal and iron ore contract
prices for 2005/06 have commenced, and further large rises are expected following the steep increases in 2004/05.
For the time being, much of the analysis on the financial losses focuses on the plunge in oil and
coal prices, and the potential that a huge portion of the global reserves of oil, gas, and
coal will be «stranded» in the ground to curb climate change.
The biggest issue lately
for Natural Resource Partners has been volatile metallurgical -
coal prices.
Those winter shutdowns were expected to dampen demand and
prices for Australian iron ore and
coal in particular, but
prices for both commodities have remained strong; iron ore
prices have surged 26 per cent since October 31 to be fetching $ US77.74 per tonne on Tuesday, according to Metal Bulletin.
At one point this year, global
prices for metallurgical
coal (used to make steel) tripled, while
prices for thermal
coal (used to generate electricity) doubled.
Bank of America Corp.'s Merrill Lynch & Co. unit increased its
price forecast
for Asian power - station
coal.
«Previous governments in Alberta and Ottawa offered to provide a subsidy of $ 779 milliontoward the $ 1.4 - billion
price tag
for TransAlta's proposed
coal - fired carbon capture and storage project, but even with taxpayers shouldering more than half the cost, there wasn't a viable business case and the project was shelved.
Other things equal, subsequent declines in spot
prices for iron ore and coking
coal would, if sustained, see the terms of trade fall further over the next few quarters.
The stark drop in natural gas
prices from an all - time high of more than $ 15 per 1,000 cubic feet in 2005 to near $ 4 today results from a range of factors including the global economic downturn, competitive
coal prices, unusually warm winters, the improvement of hydraulic fracturing («fracking») drilling techniques, and the production of natural gas as a byproduct when drillers frack
for petroleum.
Wesfarmers in November 2016 announced that it was evaluating «strategic options»
for both of its
coal assets in Queensland and New South Wales, with the miner reportedly placing a
price tag of A$ 2 - billion on the assets.
Coal, in fact, ranked as the worst performing industry
for the six months ending June 19th, with a composite
price change of — 26.7 %, while heavy losses among Precious Metals and Steel stocks also put these two group in the bottom five out of roughly 100 industries under our review.
Newcastle spot
prices, essentially the global benchmark
price for coal, have fallen from a peak of more than $ 140 a ton in early 2011 to less than $ 70 a ton.
As a result of the strong global demand
for steel, coking
coal producers negotiated an increase of around 120 per cent in contract
prices, with iron ore contract
prices generally rising by more than 70 per cent (Graph 39).
Sharply higher contract
prices for coal and iron ore in 2005/06 took effect from the beginning of April and are expected to boost the Bank's Index of Commodity Prices by around 25 per cent, once they are fully included in published transaction p
prices for coal and iron ore in 2005/06 took effect from the beginning of April and are expected to boost the Bank's Index of Commodity
Prices by around 25 per cent, once they are fully included in published transaction p
Prices by around 25 per cent, once they are fully included in published transaction
pricesprices.
Much of the recent strength has come from a steep rise estimated
for «other resource»
prices, as sharply higher contract
prices for iron ore and
coal began to take effect from 1 April, and to a lesser extent, from rising base metals
prices.
The recent annual contract negotiations between suppliers and Japanese steelmakers
for iron ore delivered
price increases of nearly 20 per cent in US dollar terms, with significant increases expected in contract negotiations
for coal over coming months.
Prices for electricity would be 4 percent lower by 2033 with a transition to more wind, solar and hydroelectric power than a persistent reliance on
coal and natural gas, according to a report by Calgary - based environmental research firm Pembina Institute and Clean Energy Canada, a Vancouver - based organization that promotes renewable energy.
While natural gas is cleaner than
coal, the volatility of the
price of that fuel makes it risky
for consumers, said Thibault.
Rather, there are known supplies of oil,
coal and other natural resources whose quantities tend to expand as their
prices rise, making it more profitable to explore
for new deposits.