If the glacial melt water contribution to sea level is overestimated, then, the unaccounted -
for contribution to sea level rise becomes much larger than initially thought.
«It is appropriate that people are now looking to the courts, instead of legislators, to help hold fossil fuel companies accountable
for their contributions to sea level rise and other climate impacts.»
«It is appropriate that people are now looking to the courts, instead of legislators, to help hold fossil fuel companies accountable
for their contributions to sea level rise and other climate impacts,» Kimmell told the East Bay Times.
Not exact matches
Bed topography data are vital
for computer models used
to project future changes
to ice sheets and their
contribution to sea level rise.
Marine Biologist Tom Iliffe, also from Texas A&M University at Galveston, said: «Providing a model
for the basic function of this globally - distributed ecosystem is an important
contribution to coastal groundwater ecology and establishes a baseline
for evaluating how
sea level rise, seaside touristic development and other stressors will impact the viability of these lightless, food - poor systems.»
The reason it's valuable is that
for all the recent discussion of fast dynamic
contributions to sea level rise, no one has looked at the glacier dynamics that would be required
to accomplish it.
If a negative surface mass balance were sustained
for millennia, that would lead
to virtually complete elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and a resulting
contribution to sea level rise of about 7 m.
The review of Sheperd and Wingham 2007 gives a best estimate of 0,35 mm / yr
for present
contribution of Greenland + Antarctica
to sea level rise.
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level ri
For example, if this
contribution were
to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of
sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level ri
for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m
to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited
to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound
for sea level ri
for sea level rise.
However,
for the recent period 1993
to 2003, the small discrepancy between observed
sea level rise and the sum of known
contributions might be due
to unquantified human - induced processes (e.g., groundwater extraction, impoundment in reservoirs, wetland drainage and deforestation).
For observed 20th - century
sea level rise, based on tide gauge records, Church et al. (2001) adopted as a best estimate a value in the range of 1
to 2 mm yr — 1, which was more than twice as large as the TAR's estimate of climate - related
contributions.
Recent work has suggested that rapid retreat is already underway
for sections of the West Antarctic ice sheet, raising the possibility of increasing
contributions to sea -
level rise.
For the 1961 - 2003 period they clearly note: «
For the period 1961
to 2003, the sum of climate
contributions is estimated
to be smaller than the observed
sea level rise.»
The main reason
for assessing it at all is
to inform inverse modelling methods — determining climatic
sea level rise contribution by removing non-climatic contributors.
And, although freshwater discharge from deep aquifers may be locally insignificant relative
to river runoff, deep aquifer discharge when integrated across the globe could account
for the missing
contribution to the
sea level rise budgets.
Hansen refers
to them in this way «They identified eight episodes of large iceberg flux, with the largest flux occurring ∼ 14 600 years ago, providing evidence of an Antarctic
contribution to Meltwater Pulse 1A, when
sea level rose an average of 3 — 5 m century − 1
for a few centuries (Fairbanks, 1989).»
Looking at these glacial flows individual
contributions to overall mean
sea level rise (MSLR) and talking in terms of decades
to centuries
for their collapse makes the problem seem very far off in human terms.
«Once ice loss through the calving of icebergs goes beyond the passive shelf ice and cuts into the safety band, ice flow towards the ocean will accelerate, which might well entail an elevated
contribution to sea -
level rise for decades and centuries
to come.»
Their results yielded two surprises: The melt rate
for glaciers and ice caps outside Antarctica and Greenland made a smaller
contribution to sea -
level rise than had been estimated, and the melt rate in the Asian mountains, including the Himalayas, was dramatically lower: 4 billion tons annually versus up
to 50 billion.
Recent research shows that the Antarctic
contribution to sea level rise is close
to zero
for up
to 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, then jumps
to at least 2 metres once we pass approximately 2 degrees Celsius.
Source: press release
for Myers et al., 2015
Sea Levels 2 - 4 m Higher Until ~ 5,000 Years Ago Imply Surface Temps Were At Least 5 °C Warmer According to the accepted (IPCC) formula for calculating the contribution of ocean warming (thermal expansion) to sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of surface warmth yields -LSB-.
Sea Levels 2 - 4 m Higher Until ~ 5,000 Years Ago Imply Surface Temps Were At Least 5 °C Warmer According
to the accepted (IPCC) formula
for calculating the
contribution of ocean warming (thermal expansion)
to sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of surface warmth yields -LSB-.
sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of surface warmth yields -LSB-...]
«A semi-empirical approach
to projecting future
sea -
level rise» «Testing the robustness of semi-empirical
sea level projections» «Kinematic constraints on glacier
contributions to 21st - century
sea -
level rise» «
Contribution of Antarctica
to past and future
sea level rise» «Global
sea level rise scenarios
for the United States National Climate Assessment» «Reconstructing
sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200
to 2100AD» «Global
sea level linked
to global temperature» «Upper limit
for sea level projections by 2100»
In fact, he said, ice flows from that glacier alone account
for a quarter
to a third of Antarctica's total
contribution to sea level rise.
What was the causal mechanism
for the explosive glacier melt
contribution to sea level rise during the 1920 - 1950 period, when anthropogenic CO2 emissions were flat and low?
C: increase in atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial
to present is anthropogenic (D / A) S: best guess
for likely climate sensitivity (NUM) s: 2 - sigma range of S (NUM) a: ocean acidification will be a problem (D / A) L: expected
sea level rise by 2100 in cm (all
contributions)(NUM) B: climate change will be beneficial (D / A) R: CO2 emissions need
to be reduced drastically by 2050 (D / A) T: technical advances will take care of any problems (D / A) r: the 20th century global temperature record is reliable (D / A) H: over the last 1000 years global temperature was hockey stick shaped (D / A) D: data has been intentionally distorted by scientist
to support the idea of anthropogenic climate change (D / A) g: the CRU - mails are important
for the science (D / A) G: the CRU - mails are important otherwise (D / A)
The glaciers of West Antarctica are already responsible
for the majority of the Antarctic continent's
contribution to global
sea level rise, and if these glaciers were
to completely collapse,
sea levels could
rise by at least four feet, potentially inundating coastal cities around the world.
The news comes as U.S. and U.K. scientists are in the process of teaming up
for an ambitious joint research mission focusing on the processes shaping Thwaites and its potential
contributions to sea -
level rise.
PIG already makes the largest
contribution to sea -
level rise of any single Antarctic glacier and the fact that its bed increases in depth upstream
for more than 200 km means there is the possibility of runway retreat that would result in an even bigger
contribution to sea level.»
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s worst projections
for Greenland's
contribution to sea level rise top out at 68 centimeters (27 inches) by the year 2100.
And more recent estimates of the Antarctic mass balance
contribution to sea level rise has the East Antarctica ice sheet gaining mass at a more accelerated pace
for 2003 - 2013 than the mere +14 Gt per year identified by Shepherd et al. (2012)
for 1992 - 2011.
Effectively, this would reduce the Antarctic
contribution to sea level rise to close
to zero
for recent decades.
There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging from centuries
to millennia
for a global average temperature increase of 1 - 4 °C (relative
to 1990 - 2000), causing a
contribution to sea -
level rise of 4 - 6 m or more.
For example, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet broke previous records in 2002, 2005, and 2007, and seasonal melting from 1996
to 2007 was above average compared with the 1973 - 2007 period.10, 11 The melting of the Greenland ice sheet contributed around 0.02 inch (0.6 millimeter)
to global
sea -
level rise in 2005 — more than double the 1996
contribution.4 From 1993
to 2003 the average rate of
sea -
level rise increased
to about 0.12 inches (3.1 millimeters) per year.12 That means that in 2005 Greenland could have contributed 19 percent of the average annual global
sea level rise rate.
Hay et al. (2015) argue that rates of
sea level rise between 1.0 and 1.4 mm yr - 1 close the
sea -
level budget
for 1901 — 1990 as estimated in AR5, without appealing
to an underestimation of individual
contributions from ocean thermal expansion, glacier melting, or ice sheet mass balance.
The scientists used satellite monitoring
to determine the
contribution of all land - based ice (except
for Greenland and Antarctica's huge ice sheets)
to rising sea levels and found that the volume of ice melting into the
sea each year from ice caps and glaciers was 100 cubic miles (or 417 cubic km).
«Given the large variability in discharge and SMB observed within the past decade and the potential
for unaccounted positive feedback within the ice - climate system, however, the
contribution of GrIS discharge
to future
sea level rise remains highly uncertain.»
The greater spread between RCPs indicated a greater role
for emissions in ice sheet
contribution to sea level rise (Kopp et al. 2017).
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report contained significant uncertainty in its projections
for glacier
contributions to sea level rise over the course of the 21st century.
According
to the report, «Contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is projected
to continue
to contribute
to sea level rise after 2100,» and» [i] f a negative surface mass balance were sustained
for millennia, that would lead
to virtually complete elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and a resulting
contribution to sea level rise of about 7 m,» which is equivalent
to approximately 23 feet.
The glaciers of West Antarctica are already responsible
for the majority of the Antarctic continent's
contribution to global
sea level rise.
If this rate were maintained, the ice sheets would make a measurable but minor
contribution to the global
sea level rise from other sources, which has been 1 - 2 mm / yr averaged over the past century and 3mm / yr
for 1993 - 2003, and is projected
to average 1 - 9 mm / yr
for the coming century (see IPCC Third Assessment Report).
When we went down the first time, we had some funding from Starbucks
for working on climate change, and I said
to them, «Look, given the element of both
sea level rise and
contribution to the hurricane, we're going
to use some of these funds
to travel there with confidence.»
However, mass balance observations are needed
for estimating the
contribution of glacier melt
to sea level rise, so are discussed further in Chapter 11.