[I occasionally employ such a methodology
for cyclical stocks — for example, CPL Resources & CRH.
Investor's preference
for cyclical stocks late in the calendar year might be explained by their optimism for a new year.
Despite this lackluster performance, investors could change their outlook
for cyclical stocks.
The P / E tends to be lower for defensive than
for cyclical stocks, throughout the turns of a business cycle.
Not exact matches
For example, interest - rate - sensitive income
stocks and bonds tend to do well coming out of the trough, and more
cyclical companies excel later on as the recovery gains steam.
It's why Wilson stressed that although we're seeing a
cyclical top
for US
stocks, we're still in the middle of a secular bull market.
Tech
stocks took a beating in what could be an ominous sign
for the sector, while health care and utilities also fared poorly as investors demonstrated a preference
for cyclicals over defensive.
As
for the Federal Reserve, we believe tapering, accompanied by a growing economy, would actually benefit
cyclical stocks.
World growth will remain low on average but negative in the UK and Europe; price inflation will remain sufficiently subdued
for a while longer so as to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime of negative real interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the risk of a eurozone collapse is off the table
for now; finally,
stock markets should continue to perform better than expected, even though the four - year old
cyclical bull market is long by historical standards.
For investors, if the anticipated pickup in growth materializes as expected, this would be a good time to consider taking positions in
cyclical stocks with the potential to produce healthy long - term total returns.
Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Michael Wilson warned in a report on Sunday that «2018 will mark an important
cyclical top»
for US and global
stocks, led by a «deterioration» in the credit markets.
We believe earnings momentum, strong balance sheets and economy - wide transformational forces of innovation and disruption can help provide both
cyclical and structural support
for technology
stocks in 2018.
Bottom line: We believe non-U.S.
stocks, particularly
cyclicals, offer rewards given our expectations
for sustained, above - trend global growth, relatively attractive valuations and accommodative central banks.
Again, the question of a year - end rally is speculative, but allowing
for the possibility, if
cyclical stocks don't spark a rally, which other groups might?
Each year I put the new chart in a plastic sleeve and when clients came into my office
for a portfolio review, I would carefully point out the dramatic differences in performance between this consumer staples
stock versus many of the
cyclicals on the list, particularly Big Blue.
It's a very
cyclical industry though and all it takes is
for a year or two of bad weather to send crop prices back up and see these
stocks jump.
Based on our fundamental analysis, we believe conditions have begun to turn more favorable
for European
stocks, especially value
stocks and companies in
cyclical industries.
(
For related reading, see
Cyclical Vs. Non
Cyclical Stocks and The Ups And Downs Of Investing In
Cyclical Stocks.)
At the same time, it is quite embarrassing to go
for investment in
stocks as we see the current world with
cyclical Sensex index graph.
Shell Oil has more excess profit at its disposal to fund future dividend growth than AT&T does (although AT&T is a non-
cyclical stock that can rely upon steady cash flow from which to pay shareholders each year, whereas Royal Dutch Shell is an oil company that experiences low profits
for 2 - 3 out of every ten due to the
cyclical nature of oil and natural gas prices).
For some historical perspective, let's look back to December 2006, when the VIX, which is sometimes referred to as the market's fear index, hit a
cyclical low of 9.39, just as the housing market began to stumble and
stock markets were beginning their final run - up ahead of the Great Recession and a subsequent 57 percent crash.
This year, MSCI's World Consumer index is up about 10 percent, but still trails the broader World benchmark and most of the other
cyclical benchmarks (except
for consumer discretionary
stocks, which are lagging both domestically and internationally).
The heavy weighting of the fund to
cyclical stocks makes this a fund
for a turnaround.
P / E ratios do not work very well
for cyclical / turnaround
stocks - a Peter Lynch point - but an analysis ex-financials or ex-cyclicals is time consuming and have not seen anywhere.
We would not be the first to point out that there has been a rush toward safer, defensive
stocks that are less -
cyclical stocks and a rush toward bond substitute
stocks like REITs, MLPs, etc., as investors search
for yield in a declining interest rate environment.
This is an exceptional achievement, particularly
for a
cyclical industrial
stock.
Cyclical stocks aren't
for everyone, but I'll gladly collect that nice income while we see how things shake out over the long term.
Yield is slightly higher than the market's, but the highly
cyclical nature of the
stocks in the materials group makes the sector an unlikely choice
for income seekers.
(
For more on this topic, read «
Cyclical Versus Non-
Cyclical Stocks.»)
Debt's far too high, and debt reduction needs to be the primary focus
for such a
cyclical stock (I'm actually disappointed at the recent dividend announcement).
Grafton Group (GN5: ID): This is a high quality
stock in a v
cyclical sector, which unfortunately accounts
for its hammering in the past few years.
Shell Oil has more excess profit at its disposal to fund future dividend growth than AT&T does (although AT&T is a non-
cyclical stock that can rely upon steady cash flow from which to pay shareholders each year, whereas Royal Dutch Shell is an oil company that experiences low profits
for 2 - 3 out of every ten due to the
cyclical nature of oil and natural gas prices).
Don't get me wrong:
cyclical companies have their place in a diversified
stock portfolio, they get dirt cheap from time to time and can make terrific investments even
for the longer term.
Cyclical stocks,
for example, increase in value when the economy is growing and decrease in value when the economy is shrinking.
At the same time, it is quite embarrassing to go
for investment in
stocks as we see the current world with
cyclical Sensex index graph.
Growth
stocks continue to dominate, as they have
for most of the past decade, led by strong performers including the much - publicized Internet giants, together with more
cyclical semi-conductor companies.
Because real estate is so
cyclical (compared to the
Stock Market,
for example), relatively simple Studies can be used to accurately track local markets.