Sentences with phrase «for decadal climate»

The experimental protocol for the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6 is described in detail in Boer et al. (2016).

This hindcast setting roughly follows the experimental design of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - 5 (CMIP5) for decadal climate prediction (Taylor et al. 2009; Murphy et al. 2010).

Not exact matches

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

A new report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine finds that continuity of ocean observations is vital to gain an accurate understanding of the climate, and calls for a decadal, national plan that is adequately resourced and implemented to ensure critical ocean information is available to understand and predict future changes.

The value of this information is illustrated by the results of a study published May 19 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by Oster's group, working with colleagues from the Berkeley Geochronology Center, the Smithsonian Institution National Museum of Natural History and the University of Cambridge titled «Northeast Indian stalagmite records Pacific decadal climate change: Implications for moisture transport and drought in India.»

Under the Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models (EaSM) program, the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energy will kick in a total of $ 50 million a year for 5 years.

The agencies will invest nearly $ 50 million annually in the new program, dubbed «Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models,» or EaSM for short, and expect to deliver improved versions within the next three years.

For climate scientists, a major question is whether the coming event will be big enough to flip the world into the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a 20 - to 30 - year climate cycle that is related to El Niño or La Niña conditions.

We describe two of the most important teleconnections for Montana below, the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.8 It is important to bear in mind that teleconnections are happening continually, and superimposed on each other as well as upon other long - term climate patterns.

And he said it can be difficult to factor the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) into any climate studies, given that «high quality data» exists for fewer than two of its complete oscillations.

Nate, a member of the FI Board of Directors, is the leader for the Landscape Ecology Team at NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center, and has expertise about decadal - scale climate variability and ecosystem regime shifts.

The big takeaway from this study: While there is uncertainty in projections for changes in the climate indices reviewed here (especially El Niño and La Niña), this study serves to alert us to the fact that the climate impacts that our local coastal communities face are based in large part on changes that occur on both a large, global scale and over the long, decadal term.

For the most part, I've not seen much evidence to suggest that internal variations alone can bring the climate to a new state on decadal timescales, even if the internal fluctuations do not completely average out over decades (e.g.,, the PDO being in a positive phase more than a negative phase during the timescale of consideration).

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureClimate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

For the future, data assimilation might help us to keep the state of a climate model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve predictions on seasonal and decadal time scales.

For methane to be a game - changer in the future of Earth's climate, it would have to degas to the atmosphere catastrophically, on a time scale that is faster than the decadal lifetime of methane in the air.

In other words, it is possible that the the climate system does exhibit some kind of long - term chaos in some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar period.

For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere responFor weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere responfor ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.

To the uninitiated, I suspect the claim reads as though climate is a highly variable entity (it would be worth polling an audience for how they interpret it) that just gets up on its own and does what it wants on decadal timescales, sort of like a random walk that is unconstrained by any physics.

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

The potential for self - delusion is significantly enhanced by the fact that climate data generally does have a lot of signal in the decadal band (say between 9 and 15 years).

Bob Davis also won the AAG Climate Specialty Group Paper of the Year award in 2004 for his paper «Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities,» International Journal of Biometeorology 47:166 - 175.

Back around 2007/8, two high - profile papers claimed to produce, for the first time, skilful predictions of decadal climate change, based on new techniques of ocean state initialization in climate models.

It appears that Ghil, and others specifically warn against the use of MEM and temperature data: «Instrumental temperature data over the last few centuries do not seem, for instance, to determine sufficiently well the behavior of global or local temperatures to permit a reliable climate forecast on the decadal timescale by this SSA - MEM method.»

These factors driving the present changes of the NHSM system are instrumental for understanding and predicting future decadal changes and determining the proportions of climate change that are attributable to anthropogenic effects and long - term internal variability in the complex climate system.

The declining signal over India shown by the GPCP decadal mode is broadly consistent with gauge measurements since the 1950s — that several research groups including my own are trying to understand, perhaps relating to emissions of anthropogenic aerosol — although there are discrepancies between these gauge - based data sets themselves (see our recent review in Nature Climate Change, for example).

Indeed regionally, interannual and decadal variability is still dominant in the climate record and will be for a long time.

and J. Willebrand, J. (1996) «Decadal Variability», Springer, NATO ASI series, volume 44; chapter: «Spectral Methods: What they Can and Can not Do for Climate Times Series» by M. Ghil and P. Yiou

PCIC welcomes Dr. Alex Cannon who has joined PCIC as a Research Climatologist to work alongside the consortium's scientific and technical staff in the development of new tools and methodology for predicting climate extremes on seasonal and decadal time scales.

In terms of the risk this has never been about decadal fine tuning, but about (preventing) the longterm slide into an entirely different climate the Earth hasn't seen for millions of years.

Part of the basis for the Mail's claims appears to be Latif et al's 2008 Nature paper, Advancing decadal - scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

Jan 15, 2018: For the MiKlip II project (short for «decadal climate predictions»), a magnetic tape library has been put into operation at the DKRZ to store the resulting project daFor the MiKlip II project (short for «decadal climate predictions»), a magnetic tape library has been put into operation at the DKRZ to store the resulting project dafor «decadal climate predictions»), a magnetic tape library has been put into operation at the DKRZ to store the resulting project data.

The study by Macias & Johnson (2008) provides not only evidence for the link between decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannuDecadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal to interannual.....

One notable point is that I received no pushback from anyone for my statements on the value of the 21st century climate models to support water decision making, and the usefulness of the PDO and AMO on decadal time scales.

Decadal nets are important for climate trends and sea level.

Pachauri, Rajendra, 6, 30, 56, 146, 156 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), 68 - 69, 240 Pacific Ocean, 58, 62, 68 - 69, 74, 102, 116, 140 Packard Foundation, 175 Pakistan, 1 Palmer, Andy, 213 Parker, Kevin, 13 Pasteur Institute, 136 Peak oil, 220 - 221, 244 Peer review, 4, 62, 66, 82, 88, 131, 155 - 158, 162, 167 Pell, George, 227 Pelley, Scott, 141 Pelosi, Nancy, 17 Pennsylvania State University, 128 People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), 30 Peru, 67 - 68 Peterson, Thomas, 162 Petroleum (see oil) Pew Center, 115 Pew Charitable Trusts, 12 Photosynthesis, 77, 131 pH Scale, 139 Pielke Sr., Roger, 148 Poland, 225 - 226 Polar bear, 1, 16, 24, 103, 136 - 138, 144, 186, 228, 231, 236, 240, 246 Politico, 175 Pollution, 21, 38 - 40, 49, 129, 133, 135, 139, 209 - 210, 225 carbon, 2, 128, 130, 132, 138, 144 Population, 32 - 33, 37, 39, 143, 184, 186 Porritt, Jonathan, 31 Power Hungry, 195 Prescott, John, 35 President's Climate Commitment, 12 Princeton University, 64, 74, 132 Propaganda, climate, 12 Proposition 23, 128 Public Broadcasting Station (PBS), 106 Public Service Company in Colorado, 199 Pugh, Lewis Gordon, 111 Purdue UniversiClimate Commitment, 12 Princeton University, 64, 74, 132 Propaganda, climate, 12 Proposition 23, 128 Public Broadcasting Station (PBS), 106 Public Service Company in Colorado, 199 Pugh, Lewis Gordon, 111 Purdue Universiclimate, 12 Proposition 23, 128 Public Broadcasting Station (PBS), 106 Public Service Company in Colorado, 199 Pugh, Lewis Gordon, 111 Purdue University, 174

(A) coordinate programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to ensure the timely production and distribution of data and information on global, national, regional, and local climate variability and change over all time scales relevant for planning and response, including intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and multidecadal time periods;

Roger could reply again by stating that models that don't show skill in projecting changing statistics can not be used for this reasoning by simulation, but I remain to disgree with him: the skill of climate models to project changing climate statistics at decadal time scales can formally not be established due to large role of natural variability, but is also not always required for generating useful information that enters the imagination process.

Building on previous efforts, this three - day workshop will use the outcomes to guide synthesis efforts, coordinate on - going research to fill out key gaps, and provide specific recommendations for accelerating scientific progress — with the aim to improve our understanding and predictability of 1) high - to mid-latitude climate variability on subseasonal - to - seasonal and on interannual - to - decadal timescales and 2) climate extremes.

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The recent post here on WUWT about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a lot of folks claiming that the PDO is useful for predicting the future of the climate... I don't think so myself, and this post is about why I don't think the PDO predicts the climate...

The 1998/2001 climate shift was to a cooler state with increased cloud cover — and these prominent decadal modes last for 20 to 40 years.

Pokrovsky (Main Geophysical Observatory, Russia); 4.9 Million Square Kilometers; Heuristic and Statistical September sea ice extent is predicted through analysis of three climate indicators: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the last 30 years.

Charlie Skeptic does not believe in any of the explanations publicly given for past decadal, centennial and millennial Holocene climate variations affecting the Earth as a whole.

Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present - day climate is about 10 years, suggesting the LIA termination in alpine regions of central North America may have occurred on a relatively short (decadal) timescale.

The IPCC states that the modern warming decadal warming, +0.55 °C, was at least 50 % caused by humans - thus, it is highly likely that natural climate forces were responsible for the other 50 %, say a +0.27 °C of the modern warming.

Modeling of the recent decadal climate record would require careful accounting for all of the radiative forcings, and would also require accurate modeling of ocean dynamics to accurately simulate the climate system's response time.

To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time - scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the coupled climate system, in cooperation with other relevant climate - research and observing programmes.

I ask for a definition in part because you (Judith) seem to have defined «climate services» as occurring on the «seasonal to decadal time scale»... and things on that time scale in the past have always been called «weather».

«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»»

The development of a fully coupled ocean - ice - atmosphere prediction system is a key issue for a better Outlook and for climate predictions on a decadal time scale.