Sentences with phrase «for decadal variability»

Some of these changes are significant for decadal variability of surface temperature.

In a recent paper, Sanchez - Franks and Zhang show that the underlying physical driver for the decadal variability in the Gulf Stream path and the regional biogeochemical cycling is linked to the low - frequency variability of the large - scale ocean circulation in the Atlantic, also known as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

They write in their abstract: «The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, is a widely used index for decadal variability.

Not exact matches

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

Rainfall during the Indian monsoon season, which runs from June to September and accounts for about 70 % of annual rainfall, exhibits decadal variability.

Nate, a member of the FI Board of Directors, is the leader for the Landscape Ecology Team at NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center, and has expertise about decadal - scale climate variability and ecosystem regime shifts.

We quantify the interannual - to - decadal variability of the heat content (mean temperature) of the world ocean from the surface through 3000 - meter depth for the period 1948 to 1998.

Despite large year - to - year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].

He took two indices of interannual variability: the Southern Oscillation (SOI) index, which is a proxy for El Nino, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI).

Periods that are of possibly the most interest for testing sensitivities associated with uncertainties in future projections are the mid-Holocene (for tropical rainfall, sea ice), the 8.2 kyr event (for the ocean thermohaline circulation), the last two millennia (for decadal / multi-decadal variability), the last interglacial (for ice sheets / sea level) etc..

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

Our best armory for the arguments you fear quite rightly is to build up our understanding of decadal variability and the extent to which it can cloud the long term trend.

There is decadal and multi-decadal variability in each of these reconstructions, but such variability arises from and is accounted for in different ways (refer to Calafat et al., 2014 for a related discussion).

The model used in Hansen et al (2005) for instance, does not have a good representation of ENSO variability — conceivably leading to this underestimate of decadal variability, but other models do a better job and it would be good to see what their variability looked like in this metric.

«The forecast for global mean temperature which we published highlights the ability of natural variability to cause climate fluctuations on decadal scale, even on a global scale.

In some models, the decadal variability for monsoons such as the South Asian monsoon also outweighs the magnitude of the future trends, and in others it does not (the review above is one example showing this).

These factors driving the present changes of the NHSM system are instrumental for understanding and predicting future decadal changes and determining the proportions of climate change that are attributable to anthropogenic effects and long - term internal variability in the complex climate system.

``... My comments quoted above refer very specifically to the potential for global models to give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales which are dominated by intrinsic interannual and interdecadal variability.»

Indeed regionally, interannual and decadal variability is still dominant in the climate record and will be for a long time.

and J. Willebrand, J. (1996) «Decadal Variability», Springer, NATO ASI series, volume 44; chapter: «Spectral Methods: What they Can and Can not Do for Climate Times Series» by M. Ghil and P. Yiou

The paper... offers a useful framework for which decadal variations in the global (or northern hemisphere) may be explained via large scale modes of oceanic variability.

However, my comments quoted above refer very specifically to the potential for global models to give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales which are dominated by intrinsic interannual and interdecadal variability.

(and over the next century, decadal variability will give us wetter and drier periods imposed on, and maybe interacting with, a greenhouse signal) We don't know for sure, and so we must try and assess the risks with the info we have at hand.

This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global - mean precipitation and surface fluxes).

The study by Macias & Johnson (2008) provides not only evidence for the link between decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannuDecadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal to interannual.....

The other forecasts, such as for hurricanes, rainfall, and snow cover, are not significantly different than under natural variability, and will advance more slowly than the decadal oscillations.

(A) coordinate programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to ensure the timely production and distribution of data and information on global, national, regional, and local climate variability and change over all time scales relevant for planning and response, including intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and multidecadal time periods;

Roger could reply again by stating that models that don't show skill in projecting changing statistics can not be used for this reasoning by simulation, but I remain to disgree with him: the skill of climate models to project changing climate statistics at decadal time scales can formally not be established due to large role of natural variability, but is also not always required for generating useful information that enters the imagination process.

Noteworthy in the reconstructions are the post-1976 warm / wet period, unprecedented in the 1,425 - year record both in amplitude and duration, anomalous and prolonged late 20th century warmth, that while never exceeded, was nearly equaled in magnitude for brief intervals in the past, and substantial decadal - scale variability within the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age intervals.

Building on previous efforts, this three - day workshop will use the outcomes to guide synthesis efforts, coordinate on - going research to fill out key gaps, and provide specific recommendations for accelerating scientific progress — with the aim to improve our understanding and predictability of 1) high - to mid-latitude climate variability on subseasonal - to - seasonal and on interannual - to - decadal timescales and 2) climate extremes.

Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 [3.1 mm / year] reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer - term trend is unclear.

Obviously you are not aware that the decadal variability of ENSO is not in synch with the PDO: The graph is from this post: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/06/30/yet-even-more-discussions-about-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/ The reasons for the differences are of course due to the influence of sea level pressure on the PDO.

Good to see FOMBS so warmly embracing vigorous decadal to cenntennial variability and what that might imply for the Arctic, the US, Alaska and parts of Europe.

Yes we really like observations in Earth sciences FOMBS — happy to see you are on board with vigourous decadal variability for which a great deal of science exists.

To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time - scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the coupled climate system, in cooperation with other relevant climate - research and observing programmes.

«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»»

Understanding the variability of the Gulf Stream path at decadal and longer timescales is crucial for predicting future physical and biogeochemical variations in this region.

Further, AMOC - induced decadal variability in chlorophyll and nutrient concentrations in the Gulf Stream region might be important for changes in the localized carbon cycle and fisheries at decadal timescales.

For example, there is decadal variability from the solar cycle, many posit large non-anthropogenic variability due to AMO, etc..

Variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (see Section 3.6.6 for a more detailed discussion) could account for some of the evolution of global and hemispheric mean temperatures during the instrumental period (Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2000; Delworth and Mann, 2000); Knight et al. (2005) estimate that variations in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation could account for up to 0.2 °C peak - to - trough variability in NH mean decadal temperatures.

Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions simulations.

For example, while El Niño or El Niño - like decadal variability results in unusually warm annual temperatures, the spatial pattern associated with such a warming is more structured, with cooling in the North Pacific and South Pacific (see, e.g., Zhang et al., 1997).

Exactly, but using good numbers not a «hotchpotch assembly» for which it is claimed to be global temperature (there is no such thing, there is global energy content, but that is totally different story) So calculate correlation CET - GT from 1880 using 5 year bin averaging http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net//CETGNH.htm P.S. your statement on natural variability on decadal scale is grossly misleading, you got about 130 years of good records so you need to look at multi-decadal picture.

US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for predictionDecadal Predictability Working Group, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for predictiondecadal climate variability: Implications for prediction, Bull.

For myself, I've suggested that 2005 - 2025 is likely to be below 0.2; and specifically somewhere from 0.15 to 0.2, but that's a quick guess not a calculation, based on rough consideration of decadal scale variability /

Variability of the El Niño / La Niña cycle, described as a Pacific Decadal Oscillation, largely accounts for the temporary decrease of warming [18], as we discuss further below in conjunction with global temperature simulations.

Despite large year - to - year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].

A 35 - year dust record established from Barbados surface dust and satellite observations from TOMS and the European geostationary meteorological satellite (Meteosat) show the importance of climate control and Sahel drought for interannual and decadal dust variability, with no overall trend yet documented (Chiapello et al., 2005).

«However, if the anthropogenic signal has mulit - decadal variability (and it does in the GCMs — for instance in Miller et al (2014), fig 7), then this process will remove that component.»

A natural variability of no more than + / - 0.1 C is invoked for this effect, which is not much in the long term expected 2 - 4 C or so, but it can modify shorter term decadal trends.