While leading measures and our Recession Warning Composite do not currently provide enough evidence to anticipate an oncoming recession with confidence, they do suggest much greater prospects
for economic weakness than the Wall Street consensus suggests.
Not exact matches
Look out
for buying opportunities into
weakness, but be prepared to sell into strength as the
economic environment remains uncertain.
But
for the last few days, global markets have been in a rout, based on
economic weakness in emerging markets.
Once heralded as the voice
for emerging markets, the BRICS group consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa is now plagued by
economic and political
weaknesses.
Prices
for credit assets tied to the Bank of Canada's target imply traders think there is a 60 % chance that Poloz will once again be moved to respond to persistent
economic weakness.
Once heralded as the voice
for emerging markets, the BRICS group is plagued by
economic and political
weaknesses.
Market analysts blamed the destabilizing influence of leverage in the market
for the enduring
weakness, aggravated by a lack of
economic data to support a rally that had seen major indexes rise as much as 150 percent by early June.
November's solid jobs report gave the Fed a final piece of evidence, clearing the way
for a December rate hike, but now the question is how fast can it raise rates given
weakness in some other
economic data.
At present, valuations are elevated, market action is relatively neutral with a deteriorating bias, and a variety of additional considerations suggest the potential
for a combination of inflation,
economic weakness and credit defaults.
The concerted weakening in commodity prices already suggests a global force to this
economic downturn, while further
weakness in the U.S. dollar would suggest that demand
for U.S. goods and securities was softening even more sharply than internationally.
I suspect the Yellen Fed (correctly) has a much higher tolerance
for stock market losses than Bernanke, and that interventions in the case of market losses and
economic weakness will take a different form than quantitative easing.
He would look
for weakness in cyclical names, which are more sensitive to better
economic growth.
Admittedly, a more conventional approach might have seen the Board ease policy more slowly, waiting
for more evidence of
economic weakness and moderation of inflation.
It is highly unusual
for both to occur together, so a simultaneous drop in both Treasury yields and the dollar would be a very powerful signal of impending
economic weakness.
With the bear market that started in 2011 likely being over, further hints on
economic weakness could cause a sustainable rally gold, even without a clear signal from the central banks that, in fact, interest rates will remain depressed
for the foreseeable future.
From the perspective of the people pulling the monetary levers, it provides carte blanche
for more money - conjuring in response to
economic weakness.
Though the underlying reason
for that Treasury price strength was concern about
economic weakness and credit defaults, falling bond yields do allow us to take a more constructive stance once market internals show evidence of improvement.
Needless to say, unanticipated
economic weakness could force a downward adjustment in expectations
for future earnings and is inconsistent with highly valued financial assets.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook
for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential
for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential
for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and
weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential
for U.S. dollar
weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe
economic weakness.
Normally, the prospect of
economic weakness would provide some support
for a longer duration, but the evidence on inflation is not benign.
With China's increasing domestic demand
for gold,
economic growth trends and continued
weakness in the Chinese stock market, some analysts expect gold prices to reach new highs.
The data released today by the BEA show pretty clearly that the arguments we make in House of Debt remain relevant
for thinking about
economic weakness today.
Still, my impression is that fresh
economic weakness could prove to be a tipping point, and that both investors and the public should understand that they are likely to pay terribly
for the current abundance of apparently free lunches.
The monetary authorities of the US and Japan have reiterated that monetary policy will remain accommodative
for the foreseeable future as the excess capacity that has built up as a result of the earlier period of
economic weakness is seen as limiting inflationary pressures
for some time.
The Fed might have missed one of the last opportunities to move to a more hawkish stance, as if the
weakness in «hard»
economic numbers persists, the central bank will have no firepower to prop up the economy, making a possible downturn that much more risky
for bulls.
Only if it is a practical or moral
weakness for a human
economic system to be based on selfishness.
Marxism needs to be evaluated
for its strengths and
weaknesses as does capitalism or any other
economic system.
Trending Story: Demand
for wine investments in California has never been higher says M&A specialists Demand
for wine properties and investments in the Californian wine industry have never been higher, according to International Wine Associates, merger and acquisition specialists in the American wine industry... Today's News Owens - Illinois reports flat earnings in 2013 ngoing
economic weakness -LSB-...]
much like when a country can't divulge highly classified information publicly
for obvious
economic and military reasons, a professional soccer organization must keep certain things in - house so they don't devalue a player, expose a
weakness, provide info that could give an opposing club leverage in future negotiations and / or give them vital intel regarding a future match, but when dishonesty becomes the norm the relationship between cub and fan will surely deteriorate... in our particular case, our club has done an absolutely atrocious job when it comes to cultivating a healthy and honest relationship with the media or their fans, which has contributed greatly to our lack of success in the transfer market... along with poor decisions involving weekly wages, we can't ever seem to get true market value
for most of our outgoing players and other teams seem to squeeze every last cent out of us when we are looking to buy; why wouldn't they, when you go to the table with such a openly desperate and dysfunctional team like ours, you have all the leverage; made even worse by the fact that who wouldn't want to see our incredibly arrogant and thrifty manager squirm during the process... the real issue at this club is respect, a word that appears to be entirely lost on those within our hierarchy... this is the starting point from which all great relationships between club and supporters form... this doesn't mean that a team can't make mistakes along the way, that's just human nature, it's about how they chose to deal with these situations that will determine if this relationship flourishes or devolves..
The author argues that the GCC governments, driven by
economic weakness and future aspirations, started to invest in alternative sources to feed their economies,
for example, partnerships with prestigious Western academic institutions.
Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has blamed
weaknesses in US
economic power as a reason
for the difficulties in the global economy.
The head of the state's Republican party, Ed Cox, jumped on Cuomo's perceived
weakness, pointing out that the governor's job performance numbers have been «underwater»
for months now, and predicting that the ongoing investigation of the Buffalo Billion and other high tech
economic projects means that «dissatisfaction will grow.»
Kim called
for a tax on political action committees, and said he would hire a
economic development caseworker who would analyze the strengths and
weaknesses of each community in the district.
The gap
for next year is estimated to be around $ 2 billion dollars, and comes at a time of continued
economic weakness in New York and the nation.
The head of the state's Republican party, Ed Cox, jumped on Cuomo's perceived
weakness, pointing out that the governor's job performance numbers have been «under water»
for months now, and predicting that the ongoing investigation of the Buffalo Billion and other high - tech
economic projects means that «dissatisfaction will grow.»
Pan: Well, there hasn't been a lot of discussion of it really in the Chinese media, but this is another example of the
weakness of the one - party political system, you know, they have shown that the one - party system can deliver
economic growth, but it's an open question whether they can deliver other public goods
for clean environment, as they discuss, has been a real challenge
for them and because local officials are so addicted to
economic growth, they are not willing to, addicted because they profit from it personally, they haven't been willing to really enforce environmental laws about, you know, good health care system, and education system.
The open innovation initiative in Lombardy is founded in the European Commission's Research and Innovation Strategies
for Smart Specialisation (RIS3), which include reports on the region's strengths,
weaknesses, and areas of opportunity from the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
«However, the application of an
economic modeling technique allowed us to attempt to control
for some of these
weaknesses.
«The idea is to give more countries, rich and poor, access to comparing themselves against the world's education leaders, to discover their relative strengths and
weaknesses, and to see what the long - term
economic gains from improved quality in schooling could be
for them,» said OECD education director Andreas Schleicher.
Such statements reflect the current views of Barnes & Noble with respect to future events, the outcome of which is subject to certain risks, including, among others, the general
economic environment and consumer spending patterns, decreased consumer demand
for Barnes & Noble's products, low growth or declining sales and net income due to various factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction of the device business, including possible reduction in sales of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that returns from consumers or channels of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the rate of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher interest rates, the performance of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews of strategic alternatives and the potential separation of the Company's businesses, the risk that the transactions with Microsoft and Pearson do not achieve the expected benefits
for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion contemplated by the relationship with Microsoft, including that it is not successful or is delayed, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Microsoft and Pearson commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing of, and the material
weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K
for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q
for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits of such efforts and associated risks and other factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K
for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with the SEC.
Such statements reflect the current views of Barnes & Noble with respect to future events, the outcome of which is subject to certain risks, including, among others, the effect of the proposed separation of NOOK Media, the general
economic environment and consumer spending patterns, decreased consumer demand
for Barnes & Noble's products, low growth or declining sales and net income due to various factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction of the device business, including possible reduction in sales of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that returns from consumers or channels of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the rate of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher interest rates, the performance of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, risks associated with the commercial agreement with Samsung, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews of strategic alternatives and the potential separation of the Company's businesses (including with respect to the timing of the completion thereof), the risk that the transactions with Pearson and Samsung do not achieve the expected benefits
for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion previously undertaken, including any risks associated with a reduction of international operations following termination of the Microsoft commercial agreement, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Pearson and Samsung commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, the risks associated with the termination of Microsoft commercial agreement, including potential customer losses, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing of, and the material
weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K
for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q
for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits of such efforts and associated risks and other factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K
for the fiscal year ended May 3, 2014, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with the SEC.
Yet ignoring bearishness in asset prices around the world is particularly near - sighted, if
for no other reason that global
economic weakness is the biggest threat to the worldwide profits and the worldwide revenue of large U.S. - based corporations.
But more interesting is the relationship between the two asset classes in the 50/50 portfolio: «First, when a recession is imminent, there is a tendency
for bonds to outperform stocks during the initial period of
economic weakness (a «flight - to - safety» effect).
Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account
for only some of the recent
weakness in
economic activity.
Economic weakness did not significantly impact Crown Castle's recurring revenue, and demand
for wireless services continued to grow.
It would be extremely easy
for the Fed to use an excuse that
economic weakness in Europe, Asia, Australia, Latin America — pretty much everywhere — requires that they tighten at a sloth's pace.
Rising Global Equity Markets Pressure Dollar Overnight Stronger global equity markets are contributing to the
weakness in the Dollar as traders are once again increasing demand
for more risky assets after reassessing U.S.
economic data and the odds of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
Stronger global equity markets contributed to the
weakness in the Dollar early in the trading session as traders once again increased demand
for more risky assets after reassessing U.S.
economic data and the odds of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.This morning, traders drove equities higher after taking a look at the U.S. em...
Stronger global equity markets contributed to the earlier
weakness in the Dollar as traders once again increased demand
for more risky assets after reassessing U.S.
economic data and the odds of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
I haven't really talked about the issue of whether high oil prices portend
economic strength or
weakness for a good reason.