That is also likely to be the case
for emergent constraints that are proposed in future, since low cloud feedback is the dominant source of inter-model variation in ECS.
The upcoming CMIP6 project will likely boost the enthusiasm
for emergent constraints.
But I do want to advocate for caution, as you nicely did in your 2014 paper on data mining
for emergent constraints.
Not exact matches
Emergent umbilical venous catheter (UVC) placement
for persistent bradycardia in the delivery room is a rare occurrence that requires significant skill and involves space
constraints.
These points all support the need
for caution regarding
emergent constraints that you advocate.
You could go further and talk about tuning to «
emergent constraints»
for climate sensitivity, observational metrics that are correlated with climate sensitivity when looking across model ensembles.
The success of the Hall and Qu study paved the way
for a number of studies seeking
emergent constraints for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS).
The three main criteria
for a robust
emergent constraint are satisfied: the physical mechanisms are well understood, the statistical relationship between the quantities of interest is strong, and uncertainties in the observed variations are weak, allowing Hall and Qu to constrain the snow - albedo feedback under global warming.
Correcting
for precipitation biases in the tropical western Pacific using an
emergent constraint methodology, however, reduces the magnitude of these increases by ∼ 50 %.
The Zhai methods have more shortcomings than those used by Brient & Schneider
for their very similar
emergent constraint, and the radical difference
for four CMIP5 models in the two studies» assessment of consistency with the observational
constraint from seasonal variations is a major concern.
The fact that developing aspects of a model can leave its satisfaction of observational
constraints unaltered but drastically change its sensitivity seems to fatally undermine the
emergent constraint approach, at least in relation to all
constraints for which this can occur.