With more than twenty years of glaciers from ten different glaciers we have tested a forecasting tool
for glacier mass balance.
In much the same way that the seasonal forecasts for the number of hurricanes is determined from a suite of indicators, this seems to be the most reasonable approach
for glacier mass balance forecasting.
Not exact matches
The team found that,
for the last 20 years, the
glacier and ice cap
mass loss has been exactly equal to the amount of meltwater runoff lost to the sea.
For example, Kangerdlugssuaq
glacier has lost
mass from melting and, in its thinner form, has less weight to speed the flow of its ice toward the sea.
For instance, some experts think glaciers in the Karakoram are prone to surging because of their steepness; as mass builds up from heavy snowfalls near the top of a glacier, for example, gravity alone may trigger a sur
For instance, some experts think
glaciers in the Karakoram are prone to surging because of their steepness; as
mass builds up from heavy snowfalls near the top of a
glacier,
for example, gravity alone may trigger a sur
for example, gravity alone may trigger a surge.
In a recent study, Mathias Trachsel (Dept. of Biology, University of Bergen) and Atle Nesje (Dept. of Earth Science, University of Bergen and Uni Research Climate) used simple statistical models to assess and quantify the relative importance of summer temperature and winter precipitation
for annual
mass balances of eight Scandinavian
glaciers.
The results now published in Environmental Research Letters seem to contradict the data from a satellite mission based on other measuring methods, which indicates a slight increase in
mass in the
glacier ice
for an almost identical period of time.
Whether the loss of
mass by the
glaciers is due to natural variation or is caused by human - influenced warming of the oceans is not known
for sure.
Although that is unlikely to happen
for many thousands of years, the ice sheet has increasingly lost
mass over the last two decades, and the
glaciers that serve as its outlet to the sea are accelerating.
«The signal of future
glacier change in the region is clear: continued and possibly accelerated
mass loss from
glaciers is likely given the projected increase in temperatures,» Joseph Shea, a
glacier hydrologist at the International Centre
for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal, who led the study, said in a statement.
The estimated 2010 or 2011 surface
mass imbalance (~ 300 Gt / yr) is comparable to the GRACE estimates of the total
mass loss (which includes ice loss via dynamic effects such as the speeding up of outlet
glaciers) of 248 ± 43 Gt / yr
for the years 2005 - 2009 Chen et al, 2011.
As
for precipitation, [Moelg and Hardy, 2004] tentatively conclude that the
glacier might be in positive
mass balance if snowfall were increased to its 1880 maximum rate, even if temperature is held fixed at its present value.
Why should it be any different
for the Kilimanjaro
glacier, which is also a matter of finding an equilibrium where rate of
mass in equals rate of
mass out?
Re # 9 Tad Pfeffer you say: «The bottom line
for me is that
glacier dynamics is a very important and unresolved issue (and let's not forget surface
mass balance — it hasn't gone way and it's not small).
Thus, even if it is rigorously demonstrated that
for a given
glacier a causal connection between the «global average» temperature and the decrease in the
mass of a
glacier exists, extrapolation to other
glaciers is not recommended.
The Arctic ice
mass is melting, as are most of the world's
glaciers upon which huge populations depend
for their water supply.
News articles by The Times, Time, the Associated Press and others capture the basics in two new papers, one on six West Antarctic
glaciers that appear to have nothing holding back eventual disappearance, accepted
for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, and the other taking a closer look at one of those ice
masses, the Thwaites Glacier, posted online today by the journal Science.
Adding such an ill - founded number into the «model - based» range degrades the much more reliable estimates
for thermal expansion, mountain
glaciers and
mass balance.
«The best estimates
for the next century are that Swiss
glaciers will have only a few percent of the
mass they had at the turn of the last century,» he said.
For 30 years, he has been clambering in, on, and around the
mass of ice, studying the
glacier's anatomy and behavior as closely as if it were a living creature.
As
for how this could be — and in light of the findings of the references listed above — Rankl et al. reasoned that «considering increasing precipitation in winter and decreasing summer mean and minimum temperatures across the upper Indus Basin since the 1960s,» plus the «short response times of small
glaciers,» it is only logical to conclude that these facts «suggest a shift from negative to balanced or positive
mass budgets in the 1980s or 1990s or even earlier, induced by changing climatic conditions since the 1960s.»
... tba...
For additional information on the status of the
glacier and on data relating to annual
mass balance and other measurements, visit the WGMS Fluctuations of
Glaciers Browser.
This claim is not only absurd, but unethical and cruel in its disregard
for the world's poorest people who are threatened in this century and next by sea - level rise, storm surges, disappearing
glaciers, flooding, drought, and
mass species extinctions.
Although one can point to particular
glaciers that are growing, glaciologists look
for trends in the total
mass of
glaciers worldwide.
This tendency
for small alpine
glaciers in the Pacific Northwest to have different
mass balance histories, yet high cross correlation coefficients was previously noted by Letreguilly (1989).
This years forecast issued May 1 is
for negative
glacier mass balance.
To determine if these key climate indices could be useful
for forecasting the
glacier mass balance the
mass balance records from North Cascade
glaciers were correlated with two PDO and MEI (Bitz and Batisti 1999; Hodge et al., 1998; Pelto and Miller, 2003).
The
mass balance
for the entire
glacier is calculated by summation of the product of
glacier area within each 0.10 m
mass balance contour, and the net balance of that interval.
Second, he demonstrated that prevailing estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (~ 1.5 to 2.0 mm / year), after correction
for the maximum signal from ocean thermal expansion, implied
mass flux from ice sheets and
glaciers at a level that would grossly misfit the residual GIA - corrected observations of Earth's rotation.
We had the advantage of already understanding the overall
mass balance pattern of each
glacier in selecting measurement networks that would provide the most representative coverage
for the
glacier given the total number of measurements in each sample (Pelto, 1996; Miller and Pelto, 1999).
The graph
for global
glacier mass change shows the estimated annual cumulative balance
for a set of global reference
glaciers with more than 30 continued observation years
for the time - period 1960 - 2017.
(2012), Ice volume and subglacial topography
for western Canadian
glaciers from
mass balance fields, thinning rates, and a bed stress model: Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175 / JCLI - D -12-00513.1.
«It is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971 — 2010
for all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios due to increases in ocean warming and loss of
mass from
glaciers and ice sheets.
A century of
mass change measurements
for several Swiss
glaciers allow us to more finely resolve changes between decades.
The Finnish Meteorological Institute has participated in a study that tested an inversion - type method
for calculating
glacier mass balance
for the first time.
A method of dealing with the lack of
mass balance measurements is to estimate the changes in
mass balance as a function of climate, using
mass balance sensitivities (see Box 11.2
for definition) and observed or modelled climate change
for glacier covered regions.
Today a global network of
mass balance monitoring
for some 60
glaciers is coordinated through the World Glacier Monitoring Service.
For instance, Gregory and Oerlemans (1998) find that projected future
glacier net
mass loss is 20 % greater if local seasonal variation is neglected, and 20 % less if regional variation is not included.
For information on the status of the
glacier and on data relating to annual
mass balance and other measurements, visit the WGMS Fluctuations of
Glaciers Browser.
Reanalysis of long - term series of glaciological and geodetic
mass balance
for 10 Norwegian
glaciers, The Cryosphere, 10, 535 - 552, doi: 10.5194 / tc -10-535-2016.
I would like to add that most
glaciers in Norway (mainland) was gone about 8.000 years ago and where reestablished about 5.000 years ago and since have had an cyclic increased
mass with a maximum, last 11.000 years
for mainland Norway around 1750 AD.
As
for future influences of melting
glaciers, consider that the Arctic, which goes through regular 60 - to 70 - year - long warming and cooling cycles, has most recently been losing some ice
mass, while most of the vastly larger Antarctic continent has been gaining.
If you are focused on simple thermodynamic reasoning, don't forget about increased snowfall from warmer ocean temperatures, that can temporarily (
for say a few thousand years) increase
mass balance of the continental
glaciers.
... tba...
For information on the status of the
glacier and on data relating to annual
mass balance and other measurements, visit the WGMS Fluctuations of
Glaciers Browser.
The mean air temperature (1906 - 2005) measured at the climate station Vent (1906 m a.s.l) was -1.6 °C and the mean annual lapse rate is 0.57 °C / 100 m.
For additional information on the status of the
glacier and on data relating to annual
mass balance and other measurements, visit the WGMS Fluctuations of
Glaciers Browser.
* regressing the series of Hocéans and Tsurface leads to a thermal capacity C of 14 W / m ² / year / K equivalent to 110 m of water; C is taken as 17 W / m ² / year / K
for the whole planet b y addition of 5 %
for molten
glaciers, 5 %
for the heat content of continental
masses and 4 %
for changes of the temperature of the air
To say nothing of the warming trends also noticed in,
for example: * ocean heat content * wasting
glaciers * Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet
mass loss * sea level rise due to all of the above * sea surface temperatures * borehole temperatures * troposphere warming (with stratosphere cooling) * Arctic sea ice reductions in volume and extent * permafrost thawing * ecosystem shifts involving plants, animals and insects
There has even been «a shift to surface
mass gains»
for glaciers in that region.
For the full set of SRES scenarios, a sea level rise of 0.09 to 0.88 m is projected for 1990 to 2100 (see Figure 24), primarily from thermal expansion and loss of mass from glaciers and ice ca
For the full set of SRES scenarios, a sea level rise of 0.09 to 0.88 m is projected
for 1990 to 2100 (see Figure 24), primarily from thermal expansion and loss of mass from glaciers and ice ca
for 1990 to 2100 (see Figure 24), primarily from thermal expansion and loss of
mass from
glaciers and ice caps.
The 2003 — 08 specific
mass balance
for our entire HKKH study region was − 0.21 ± 0.05 m yr − 1 water equivalent, significantly less negative than the estimated global average
for glaciers and ice caps4, 10.