As well as this change in the outlook
for global monetary policy, another prominent theme in discussions of the global economy of late has been the slow growth in wages.
Not exact matches
Eight years after a devastating recession opened an era of loose U.S.
monetary policy, the Federal Reserve was set on Wednesday to raise rates
for the first time since 2006, in a sign the world's largest economy had overcome most of the wounds of the
global financial crisis.
While the Fed has indicated it plans to raise short - term interest rates, the uncertain domestic and
global economies and the still - loosening
monetary policy of central bankers in other countries suggests that rates could remain very low
for a long time still.
Emerging markets also account
for over 50 % of world GDP, and have been responsible
for the lion's share of
global growth ever since the 2008 financial crisis, but capital has flooded out of them as the Federal Reserve has tightened its
monetary policy and the limits of China's economic model have become apparent.
The Fed raised its key overnight lending rate in December
for the first time in nearly a decade, but it has backed away from further
monetary policy tightening this year largely due to a
global economic slowdown and financial market volatility.
The IMF cites a number of risks to their optimistic outlook
for the next two years, risks that are more concerning
for the medium term (2020 and beyond), including geopolitical strains, a sudden and severe tightening of
monetary policies, waning popular support
for global economic integration, and a move toward protectionist trade
policies that would impact
global trade.
This observation is important because it highlights the potential
for an evolving
global environment to complicate the challenge of crafting economic
policy, and in particular,
monetary policy.
Hector Valdez Albizu, Governor, Central Bank of Dominican Republic, spoke with
Global Finance magazine editor Andrea Fiano about the country's fiscal and
monetary policies, relations with the IMF and the road ahead
for Dominican Republic's economy.
While there are some signs of recognition such as the Fed's reduction in its estimated neutral rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2 years, the IMF's explicit use of the term secular stagnation in its World Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call
for global coordination and greater use of fiscal
policy, and Japan's indicated interest in fiscal -
monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not made sufficiently radical adjustments in their world view to reflect this new reality of a world where generating adequate nominal GDP growth is likely to be the primary macroeconomic
policy challenge
for the next decade.
These predictions proved overly optimistic as oil prices, Chinese growth and
global monetary policies weighed on stocks and the S&P only returned 1.4 %
for the year.
The speech goes on to outline some of the economic surprises that came to pass in the intervening years, including: the «mining boom mark II»; the further significant rise and then subsequent fall in Australia's terms of trade; and the search
for yield in
global capital markets driven by ongoing ultra-easy
monetary policy in the major economies.
Concerns about
global trade tensions between China and the U.S. and the fear that the stellar earnings could be as good as it gets
for stocks are all combining to undermine the sort of confidence that was in abundance during last year's run of repeated records
for equity benchmarks, as the U.S. economy enters it ninth year of expansion and as the Federal Reserve moves to normalize
monetary policy from crisis - era levels.
The Bank of Canada is applying lessons from the
global financial crisis as it updates its framework
for the use of unconventional
monetary policy measures, Governor Stephen S. Poloz said.
According to Anna Stupnytska,
global economist at Fidelity International, Jerome Powell's appointment as Fed chair represents
policy continuity in the near - term and might even result in a slightly easier
monetary stance than some other contenders
for the role.
While base rates kept at or close to zero
for almost seven years and three massive asset - buying programs by the Fed have undoubtedly helped stabilize the US (and world) economy during and after the recession that followed the
global financial crisis, the continuation of expansionary
monetary policies is now supporting a growing excess of
global liquidity that has been distorting the market signals sent by stock and bond prices and thus contributing to the growing volatility seen in recent weeks.
The weaker overall outlook
for global economic growth could prove the decisive factor in persuading the ECB to further ease
monetary policy in a concerted effort to stop the eurozone's recovery from stalling.
Recently, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the principal bank to the world's central banks, hinted at the need
for microeconomic reform when it warned that central banks were «overburdened» and called
for policies other than
monetary stimulus and low interest rates to tackle the issue of slow
global growth.
In fact, the divergences in
global economic performance — one of those being that U.S.
monetary policy would tighten while European
monetary policy would loosen — actually look very much like an explanation
for what already happened last year.
After confronting the «knowledge problem» at the heart of discretionary
monetary policy — that policymakers are unable to know the true structure of an increasingly complex and
global economic system — Dorn calls
for the establishment of a Centennial
Monetary Commission to evaluate the performance of the Fed over its 100 - plus years of discretionary
monetary authority and to discuss how best to reform the country's central bank.
I've long wondered that after four years of unprecedented
monetary policy with still very tepid at best economic growth, just whether investors would lose faith in the Fed (and really
global central bankers
for that matter) and politicians.
To combat slowing growth, the
global body calls
for advanced economies to «maintain easy
monetary policies.»
Back in the 1980's as Volker was practicing restrictive
monetary policy, the emerging markets accounted
for roughly 15 % of total
global GDP.
Since the «taper tantrum» back in 2013, the prospect of the Fed easing
monetary policy has been one of the top concerns
for global market participants.
US
monetary policy with its unending bias toward stimulus, since we are the
global reserve currency (
for now), pushes inflation out into the countries that lend to us and into the commodity markets as well.
The United States,
for example, can not be isolated from the rest of the world, if it is to keep the dollar at the centre of the
global monetary policy.
Stocks and riskier assets are not merely climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry; rather, at this moment in time, the ultra-accommodating
monetary policy of
global central banks is an unchallenged source
for asset price inflation.
Huemmer noted a combination of factors driving the shift, including strong emerging - market performance, positive expectations
for global growth, compelling valuations of international equities, and more accommodative
monetary policy overseas.
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Managing Director and Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington Management LLP and
Global Investment Strategist
for Hartford Funds, has three inputs to her process: economic fundamentals, fiscal /
monetary policy, and valuations.
We believe many emerging - market countries, most of which reformed their economic and
monetary policies after the
global financial crisis, appear well positioned
for continued growth.
In 2018, central banks will start realising that
monetary policy for a
global market in cryptocurrency is not achievable.
James McCormack,
Global Head of Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Ratings, discusses the outlook for global markets and monetary policy from various central
Global Head of Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Ratings, discusses the outlook
for global markets and monetary policy from various central
global markets and
monetary policy from various central banks.