It doesn't matter what the atmosphere does if the SST's are too low
for hurricane formation.
According to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, the major climate factors expected to influence this year's activity are the ongoing multi-decadal signal, which produces wind and atmospheric pressure patterns favorable
for hurricane formation, along with ongoing warmer - than - normal sea surface temperatures.
According to hurricane historian Jay Barnes of Pine Knoll Shores, North Carolina, ocean heat is the key ingredient
for hurricane formation.
Conditions in the tropical Atlantic remain unfavorable
for hurricane formation.»
For ocean temperatures, the magic number
for hurricane formation is 26.5 degrees Celsius (or 79.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
Not exact matches
Temperature gradients make the atmosphere more unstable, and «a more unstable atmosphere is more conducive
for deep thunderstorm
formation, which is the building blocks of
hurricanes,» Klotzbach says.
For years, perhaps decades, Gray has been ascribing all sorts of climate changes and
hurricane cycles to fluctuations in the Thermohaline Circulation (THC), an overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean associated with
formation of deep water in the North Atlantic.
What I mean is that
for a given amount of wind shear what heat content must be present above the thermocline to overcome the shear and permit
hurricane formation?
My recently deceased father - in - law, Katsuyuki «Vic» Ooyama (scroll down to page 5
for a short bio), was a meteorological scientist and developer of numerical computer models (some versions of which are still being used today) regarding the
formation, development and tracking of
hurricanes.
Anyone here know of an explanation
for the
formation of
hurricanes such as I give in Chapter 4A
for eg 2017 & 2010 North Atlantic
Hurricanes?
The Lesser Antilles intersect the «main development region»
for Atlantic
hurricane formation, making storm data there «our best source
for historical variability of tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries,» the researchers explain.
For example,
hurricane formations will change.
That's because even as warmer oceans provide jet fuel
for hurricanes, changes in atmospheric wind patterns can still interfere with their
formation by preventing storms from forming or, literally, tearing them apart.
Re # 205 My initial concerns were about the path functions
for hurricanes and not
for the theoretical mechanisms of
hurricane formation nor
for the predicted relations of
hurricane intensity with rising sst's etc..
The darkest orange areas indicate water temperatures of 26.5 °C (80 °F) and higher — the temperatures required
for the
formation and growth of
hurricanes.
Warm ocean temperatures are one of the key factors that strengthen
hurricane development when overall conditions are conducive
for their
formation and growth.
For example, when there are large changes in wind speed at different altitudes (also known as «vertical wind shear») above an area of the ocean, those conditions can interfere with
hurricane formation.