So
for lognormal SD ~ 1 there are a lot of random, multiplicative, feedbacks and all are positive?
Not exact matches
I used this range, assuming a
lognormal distribution, along with the mean value of 1.53, in the calculation
for the TCR.
Assuming a
lognormal excess luminosity function, we put upper limits on the median HZ dust level of 13 zodis (95 % confidence)
for a sample of stars without cold dust and of 26 zodis when focussing on Sun - like stars without cold dust.
You get a VERY different result if you even use a
lognormal prior with a standard deviation of 0.65 - 0.85 (which maximizes width / Kurtosis
for a given mean).
snarkrates: 1) I've not had occasion to try Weibull, but
lognormal has been useful (
for analysis of computer performance benchmarks based on performance ratios.)
I wouldn't consider using a plain
lognormal distribution
for ECS or TCR, but how far it differs from a better fitting approximation will very from estimate to estimate.
Assuming the conventional 1.5 - 4.5 K IPCC uncertainty range (and its translation by Wigley & Raper, 2001, into a
lognormal pdf assuming the range to be a 90 % confidence interval), this risk of overshooting 2 °C is about 75 % (13 %) in equilibrium
for 550ppm (400ppm) CO2 equivalence stabilization.