Sentences with phrase «for model ensembles»

Central tendency for model ensembles requires that models be random realizations of the same underlying population.

The SAT trend can be calculated only for the model ensembles with historical simulations.

Not exact matches

The ensemble for the latest assessment is unprecedented in the number of models and experiments performed.

The first is the development of a comprehensive, closely coordinated ensemble of simulations from 18 modeling groups around the world for the historical and future evolution of the earth's climate.

An ensemble of the 13 best performing models was used, both for CLIM and H - CLIM to predict the spatially - distributed mean and maximum area burnt for the period 1950 - 2015 to explore to what extent hydrology adds.

Through an ensemble modeling approach, we were able to show that without anthropogenic effects, the droughts in the southwestern United States would have been less severe,» says co-author Axel Timmermann, Director of the newly founded IBS Center for Climate Physics, within the Institute for Basics Science (IBS), and Distinguished Professor at Pusan National University in South Korea.

The scientists used the latest ensemble of climate models, prepared for the 5th assessement report of the International Panel on Climate Change.

To understand the role of human - induced climate change in these new records they compare simulations of the Earth's climate from nine different state - of - the - art climate models and the very large ensemble of climate simulations provided by CPDN volunteers for the weather@home ANZ experiments for the world with and without human - induced climate change.

Because climate studies using multi-model ensembles are generally superior to single model approaches43, all nine fire weather season lengths for each location were averaged into an ensemble mean fire weather season length, hereafter referred to as «Fire Weather Season Length» (See Supplementary Methods).

For the work of the Montana Climate Assessment, we employed an ensemble from the fifth iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which includes up to 42 GCMs depending on the experiment conducted (CMIP5 undated).

The initial LASSO implementation on the Cumulus cluster will be for ARM's Southern Great Plains site in Oklahoma and will focus on high - resolution model simulations of shallow clouds driven by ensembles of forcing inputs.

All forecasted SST series were pooled and for each calendar year the forecasted nest abundances is the model average for the ensemble of 200 simulations, essentially, deterministic models within a stochastic shell [59].

Climate change projections were based on an ensemble of four General Circulation Models (UKMO HadCM3, MPIM ECHAM5, CSIRO MK3.5 and GFDL CM2.1), downscaled to 10 minutes [32], considering three emissions scenarios (B2, A1B and A2) for 1975 (mean 1961 — 1990), 2050 (mean 2041 — 2060) and 2090 (mean 2081 — 2100).

A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.

We previously showed that a simple linear ensemble - coding model of the SC motor map could fully account for the nonlinear properties of saccades [33].

M2009 use a simplified carbon cycle and climate model to make a large ensemble of simulations in which principal uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcings, and climate response are allowed to vary, thus yielding a probability distribution for global warming as a function of time throughout the 21st century.

The model - turned - actress chooses a bold ensemble for the Vogue and Tory Burch event in Beverly Hills: a head - to - toe metallic printed sheath cinched with a geo belt.

After rocking a «90s - inspired dark ensemble for date night with her new beau Zayn Malik Sunday in Los Angeles, the model zipped into London's Heathrow Airport Monday in an outfit that while undeniably cozy, is also endlessly chic.

These are great for work and for dressing down, like this model is wearing above, you can easily swap out your work ensemble with a pair of casual jeans and some cute sandals.

I mean, the girl has worn glittery jumpsuits and surfboards as a model for the lingerie giant, so no ensemble is out of the question or too hard a feat.

Unlike the younger model though, Joan went for an all - white ensemble.

So while Manish's show saw bird installations and gentle chirping as the background score setting pace for a gorgeous collection of ensembles raging from capes to jumpsuits to skirts and elaborate lehengas, we saw Dhruv Kapoor showcasing his resort wear by the poolside with models sashaying around in boxy dresses, crop tops, cold shoulders and obi belts.

We have high hopes, however, for Role Models writer - director David Wain, who is putting the box office disappointment of Wanderlust behind him by putting two of his Wet Hot American Summer ensemble, Amy Poehler and Paul Rudd, back together for They Came Together.

BEST DOCUMENTARIES: GROUNDBREAKER: A Walk To Beautiful: Mary Olive Smith ABOVE AND BEYOND: Wings Of Defeat: Risa Morimoto COURAGE IN FILMMAKING: Traces Of The Trade: Katrina Browne MOST OFFENSIVE MALE CHARACTERS Aaron Eckhart: Towelhead Sam Rockwell: Choke Larry Bishop: Hell Ride Paul Rudd, Sean William Scott: Role Models Jason Mewes: Zack And Miri Make a Porno TOP TEN HALL OF SHAME Roman Polanski: Wanted And Desired House Of The Sleeping Beauties The Women The Life Before Her Eyes The Hottie and the No ttie Savage Grace Made Of Honor The Family That Preys Hounddog Zack And Miri Make A Porno Alliance of Women Film Journalists Best Film Slumdog Millionaire Best Direction Danny Boyle — Slumdog Millionaire Best Screenplay Original Wall - E — Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon Best Screenplay Adapted Frost / Nixon — Peter Morgan Best Documentary (Tie) Man On Wire — James Marsh Trouble The Water — Tia Lessen, Carl Deal Best Actress (Tie) Sally Hawkins — Happy - Go - Lucky Kate Winslet — The Reader and Revolutionary Road Best Actress In Supporting Role Viola Davis — Doubt Best Actor Sean Penn — Milk Best Actor in Supporting Role Heath Ledger — Dark Knight Best Ensemble Cast Rachel Getting Married Best Editing The Curious Case of Benjamin Button — Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall Best Foreign Film Tell No One EDA FEMALE FOCUS AWARDS Best Woman Director Courtney Hunt — Frozen River Best Woman Screenwriter Jenny Lumet — Rachel Getting Married Best Breakthrough Performance Sally Hawkins — Happy - Go - Lucky Best Newcomer Misty Upham — Frozen River Women's Image Award Kristin Scott Thomas Hanging in There Award for Persistence Melissa Leo — Frozen River Actress Defying Age and Ageism Catherine Deneuve — A Christmas Tale 2008 Outstanding Achievement By A Woman In The Film Industry Sheila Nevins, Producing / Programming at HBO Lifetime Achievement Award Catherine Deneuve AWFJ Award For Humanitarian Activism All of the Women in Pray The Devil Back To Hell EDA SPECIAL MENTION AWARDS AWFJ Hall Of Shame Award 27 Dresses Actress Most in Need Of A New Agent Kate Hudson Movie You Wanted To Love But Just Couldn't (Tie) Mamma Mfor Persistence Melissa Leo — Frozen River Actress Defying Age and Ageism Catherine Deneuve — A Christmas Tale 2008 Outstanding Achievement By A Woman In The Film Industry Sheila Nevins, Producing / Programming at HBO Lifetime Achievement Award Catherine Deneuve AWFJ Award For Humanitarian Activism All of the Women in Pray The Devil Back To Hell EDA SPECIAL MENTION AWARDS AWFJ Hall Of Shame Award 27 Dresses Actress Most in Need Of A New Agent Kate Hudson Movie You Wanted To Love But Just Couldn't (Tie) Mamma MFor Humanitarian Activism All of the Women in Pray The Devil Back To Hell EDA SPECIAL MENTION AWARDS AWFJ Hall Of Shame Award 27 Dresses Actress Most in Need Of A New Agent Kate Hudson Movie You Wanted To Love But Just Couldn't (Tie) Mamma Mia!

As for «Beasts,» the Ensemble and Elba nominations may prove the power of Netflix's streaming model in the context of awards season.

Viewed in ensemble, these works provide models for reflecting upon and working against a system that seems doomed to failure.

Racquel Reclining Wearing Purple Jumpsuit # 1 (2014), for example, is akin to a fashion advertisement, as the model — with her incredibly glamorous ensemble and afro — seductively leans back onto a couch.

«As of fall 2010, all freshmen at Meadows are introduced to alternative models of artistic practice — which includes everything from our own programs in music therapy and our interdisciplinary ensemble, Point, to our community artist partnerships with Big Thought — AND to the basics of how the various arts businesses, both nonprofit and for - profit, work.

p.s. To compare to Vahrenholt's forecast, here's a comparison of earlier model projections of global temperature for the IPCC (prediction with the CMIP3 model ensemble used in the 4th IPCC assessment report, published in 2007) with the actual changes in temperature (the four colored curves).

One can temper that with studies of paleoclimate sensitivity, but the ensemble results still should be borne in mind, since doubling CO2 takes us into a climate that has no real precendent in the part of the climate record which has been used for exploring model sensitivity, and in many regards may not have any real precedent in the entire history of the planet (in terms of initial condition and rapidity of GHG increase).

For instance, if some analyses of the model ensemble tries to weight models based on some their skill compared to observations, it is obviously important to know whether a model group tuned their model to achieve a good result or whether it arose naturally from the the basic physics.

(2) What proportion of model runs from a multi-model ensemble produce global mean temperatures at or below (on average) the actual measurement for the last 10 years?

We then perturb this input with the change in the seasonal mean SSTs and the seasonal mean state of the atmosphere as projected by an ensemble mean of global models for the end of the 21st century.

(As mentioned in the paper, when downscaling the GFDL CM2.1 model, rather than the ensemble mean, the number of hurricanes stays roughly unchanged by the end of the 21st century, and we see a substantial increase in the strongest model storms, those that exceed the surface pressure criterion for category 3.

The «models used» (otherwise known as the CMIP5 ensemble) were * not * tuned for consistency for the period of interest (the 1950 - 2010 trend is what was highlighted in the IPCC reports, about 0.8 ºC warming) and the evidence is obvious from the fact that the trends in the individual model simulations over this period go from 0.35 to 1.29 ºC!

An additional interesting question is whether the huge ensemble of models used in this study is actually more valuable than the 20 or so models generates by the best efforts of the world's modeling centers for the IPCC.

R.E. Benestad (2002), Empirically downscaled multi-model ensemble temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway, Journal of Climate Vol 51, No. 21, 3008 - 3027 R.E. Benestad (2003) What can present climate models tell us about climate change?

Global climate model projections (in CMIP3 at least) appear to underestimate sea ice extent losses with respect to observations, though this is not universally true for all models and some of them actually have ensemble spreads that are compatible with PIOMAS ice volume estimates and satellite observations of sea ice extent.

On my web site I have plotted 30 - year trends for the three major temperature data series and for a 23 - model ensemble.

I have linearly extended the ensemble mean model values for the post 2003 period (using a regression from 1993 - 2002) to get a rough sense of where those runs might have gone.

[Response: There are a couple of issues here — first, the number of ensemble members for each model is not the same and since each additional ensemble member is not independent (they have basically the same climatological mean), you have to be very careful with estimating true degrees of freedom.

The use of «ensemble forecasting» (# 15 and # 23) presupposes that the number of tweakable parameters significantly exceeds that required for fitting the model.

He claims that this can be corrected for, but he still isn't using the proper null — in M&N they show the results from the ensemble means (of the GISS model and the full AR4 model set), but seem to be completely ignorant of the fact that ensemble mean results remove the spatial variations associated with internal variability which should be the exact thing you would use!

So here we have what is ostensibly the «official» ensemble of models predicting surface cooling in Antarctica for the next 21 years.

For Figure 1, global mean temperatures are plotted from the HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP products relative to a 1900 - 1940 baseline, together with global mean temperatures from 81 available simulations in the CMIP5 archive, also relative to the 1900 - 1940 baseline, where all available ensemble members are taken for each modFor Figure 1, global mean temperatures are plotted from the HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP products relative to a 1900 - 1940 baseline, together with global mean temperatures from 81 available simulations in the CMIP5 archive, also relative to the 1900 - 1940 baseline, where all available ensemble members are taken for each modfor each model.

With «mean climate», surely the model ensemble mean is meant, however the «real data» to base the tuning on by definition is restricted to the single realisation of Earth's climate (including cloud cover caused by, for instance, multi-decadal oscillations instead of AGW feedback).

Fig. 4 there should be at total of eight models (including GFDL CM2.1) that have at least one ensemble member outside the p = 0.05 confidence interval for weakening.

The following graph shows a comparison of observational data with the CMIP5 ensemble of model experiments that have been made for the current IPCC report.

Some of the models also involve ensemble calculations, and again it may be instructive for the climate modellers to describe something about the use of these, especially as the public has been involved in some ensemble calculations being run on their pc's at home.

Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios [possible paths for greenhouse gas emissions] adds at least another 5 years.