Do hurricanes act as vacuum cleaners
for ocean heat?
A decline of open - ocean convection would reduce the production rate of Antarctic Bottom Waters, with important implications
for ocean heat and carbon storage, and may have played a role in recent Antarctic climate change.»
Or should we start with Judith's neglecting to mention in her recent WSJ op - ed that newer data exists for the calculation she did with Lewis, especially
for ocean heat content?
This is certainly the case
for the ocean heat content discussion, and the GW / hurricane links, the aerosol issues etc..
I haven't seen any climate scientist make a case
for ocean heat below 700 meters somehow becoming concentrated on the surface in order to effect rapid warming of the atmosphere.
If I understand correctly your estimate and error
for ocean heat uptake are for average rate over the period 1880 - 2011, while your estimate of the forcing rate and associated delta T are for 2011.
JK «If I understand correctly your estimate and error
for ocean heat uptake are for average rate over the period 1880 - 2011, while your estimate of the forcing rate and associated delta T are for 2011.»
As
for ocean heat content, Argo hasn't been in the water long enough to show a clear signal, and there have been problems with the data, including a significant correction (you do recall the correction to the UAH satellite record after years of insistence that their data showed the surface temp record trends were completely wrong?).
Tell you what sunshine — you come up with an analytical solution
for ocean heat content, publishand I guarantee it is Nobel Prize time.
Various groups have analyzed that data and they all come up with about the same answer
for ocean heat uptake in the ARGO era, one that is disappointingly small for alarmists.
It also acts as a recharge - discharge oscillator
for ocean heat content in the tropical Pacific, with La Niñas recharging and El Niños discharging.
One of these was just referred to in connection with the Southern Hemisphere potentially being another location
for ocean heat storage that was not sampled well by Argo.
As the adjacent chart by expert Bob Tisdale reveals, the NASA climate model prediction
for ocean heat content (OHC) is robustly higher than actual measurements of OHC since 2003.
«Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications
for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006»
My Solar derived proxy
for ocean heat content is right on target: http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/phil-jones-we-dont-know-what-natural-variability-is-doing/
Let's think about the implications
for ocean heat uptake.
As I pointed out, lgl's use of the same method I developed for using TSI or SSN as a proxy
for ocean heat content also fits Steinhilber's TSI reconstruction quite well to the Mann08 temperature reconstruction.
If this is accepted as a reasonable looking proxy
for ocean heat content which matches the instrumental OHC record pretty well, then no «lag» is needed to explain the solar effect on OHC and thus global surface temperature.
If Schmidt and Muscheler want to dismiss a solar explanation for late 20th century warming by invoking the highly speculative assumption that GMAST is a good proxy
for ocean heat content over with the 20th century, that fine.
While 2016 was the warmest year on the surface, it was only the third warmest year
for ocean heat content as the El Niño event that helped 2016 surface temperatures be so warm redistributed heat out of the ocean and into the atmosphere.
yet your middle figure
for ocean heat content shows no significant rise until mid 80s.
The modulating factor
for ocean heat content is GH gas levels in the atmosphere and solar input to the oceans.
Ocean warming: «Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications
for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006»
For the ocean heat content to vary appreciably [the lag is a red herring], the energy input [your q] has to vary appreciably too, and it doesn't.
I think if it's handy to have a faux - factor
for ocean heat gain % age then it's either from sea water melt / freeze temperature or the average ocean temperature during previous glaciation.
Section 8.6 discusses the various feedbacks that operate in the atmosphere - land surface - sea ice system to determine climate sensitivity, and Section 8.3.2 discusses some processes that are important
for ocean heat uptake (and hence transient climate response).
Please explain the (difference between the) aerosol amounts / composition / effects (especially
for ocean heat content) over the NH and SH in the 2001 GCMs vs. current GCMs for the calculations of the 1945 - 1975 period and the 1975 - 200x period.
If one was to redo those papers, you would choose the efficacies most relevant to their calculations (i.e. the ERF derived values for Otto et al) along with their adjustment
for the ocean heat uptake (in our sensitivity test), and conclude that instead of an ECS of 2.0 ºC [likely range 1.4 - 3.2], you'd get 3.0 ºC [likely range 1.8 - 6.2].
With respect to the latter, there was a recent article in Nature, «Observational evidence
for an ocean heat pump induced by tropical cyclones» by Ryan Sriver and Matthew Huber.
So given a forcing (in this case 0.85 W / m2 (= 1.6 W / m2 minus 0.75 W / m2
for the ocean heat content change), and a temperature change 0.7 °C, the sensitivity is 0.7 / 0.85 = ~ 0.8 °C / (W / m2)(leaving off the error bars for clarity)- gavin]
A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications
for ocean heat content estimates and climate change
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot data (as a proxy
for ocean heat content), departing from the average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
Which happens to give respectable values
for ocean heat anomalies for last few decades when forced by ocean temperatures.
What is implicit, I think, in all this «wait for the models» talk is that there is no model
for the ocean heat to contact so much ice in just eighty years.
It is more striking
for Ocean Heat Content which so far you have avoided, despite it being a considerably less noisy record than surface temperature.
«The Importance of Planetary Rotation Period
for Ocean Heat Transport» is published in the journal Astrobiology on Monday, July 21, 2014.
Nothing prior to mid-20th century
for ocean heating: sea - level doesn't cut it if you don't know what Antarctic ice has done.
Not exact matches
Increasing
heat is also warming up the
ocean, and hotter air holds onto more moisture, increasing the available energy
for hurricanes.
In the absence of the knowledge that hurricanes are nothing more that the
heat generated by an
ocean baking in the Summer
heat coupled with the correolis effect, people could be forgiven
for assigning cosmic importance to the events.
BIBLE says that earthquakes, hurricances, floods, plagues, locusts, etc. are caused by God as punishment
for sins SCIENCE explains that earthquakes are due to tectonic plate movements, hurricanes caused by
ocean heat and coriolis effect, floods normal effect of weather fluctations, etc..
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Ocean.
Jules Verne imagined this limitless power source in Victorian times — now 21st - century engineers say
heat trapped in the
oceans could provide electricity
for the world
Faster winds are affecting how much
heat and carbon dioxide the
oceans soak up, with immense consequences
for us all, finds Anil Ananthaswamy
«This is like opening a pressure relief valve — the
ocean then releases a surplus of
heat to the atmosphere
for several consecutive winters until the
heat reservoir is exhausted,» adds Professor Latif.
Gerald Meehl, a climate scientist at the National Center
for Atmospheric Research who was also an author on the paper, said this research expanded on past work, including his own research, that pointed to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation as a factor in a warming slowdown by finding a mechanism behind how the Pacific
Ocean was able to store enough
heat to produce a pause in surface warming.
«Volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere absorb infrared radiation, thereby
heating up the stratosphere, and changing the wind conditions subsequently,» said Dr. Matthew Toohey, atmospheric scientist at GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre
for Ocean Research Kiel.
This study adds a reason
for this
heat storage in the Pacific
Ocean: increases in trade winds blowing east to west.
Therefore Halley's traditional model
for monsoons — that the different
heat capacities of land and
ocean surfaces cause these seasonal deluges — doesn't give a full picture.
A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre
for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time sc
Ocean Research Kiel shows that the
ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time sc
ocean currents influence the
heat exchange between
ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time sc
ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.
Today, the Southern
Ocean accounts
for almost half of the anthropogenic CO2 and 75 percent of the
heat that the world's
oceans soak up from the atmosphere.