Is there a similar disconnect between predictions and observations
for polar bear survival?
The decision was based on evidence that sea ice is vital
for polar bear survival, that this sea ice habitat has been reduced, and that this process is likely to continue; if something is not done to change this situation, the polar bear will be extinct within 45 years, Kempthorne said.
Not exact matches
The
polar bear is a semi-aquatic marine mammal that depends mainly upon the pack ice and the marine food web
for survival.
If adaptation
for survival in the Arctic environment has led to a less versatile immune system, then Arctic species such as the
polar bear may be at risk from an influx of pathogens as global temperatures rise, the researchers warn.
Also, I'm not sure I see strong support
for this concluding sentence: «Although
polar bears have persisted through previous warm phases, multiple human - mediated stressors (e.g., habitat conversion, persecution, and accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain) could magnify the impact of current climate change, posing a novel and likely profound threat to
polar bear survival.»
Because
polar bears are entirely dependent upon the sea ice
for their
survival, any observed and projected reductions in preferred sea ice habitats can only result in declines.
The ACIA report described how the retreat of the sea ice has devastating consequences
for polar bears, whose very
survival may be at stake.
The shorter change in season in the Arctic threatens the
survival of
polar bears, because shorter frozen seasons means shorter hunting and breeding time
for polar bears.
«The PBSG is the authoritative source
for information on the world's
polar bears,» declares the PBSG / IUCN / Species
Survival Commission website, «and one of IUCN / SSC's more than 100 specialist groups that work to produce and to compile scientific knowledge about the world's species and give independent scientific advice to decision - makers and management authorities.»
Both groups accept the premise that sea ice declines blamed on global warming are already a
survival issue
for polar bears (that will become increasingly worse in the future).
As the struggle and the search
for food continues
polar bears are hanging on
for survival.
Of course, Dr Monnett now says that he didn't really mean to argue anything related to global warming, and that the 25 % figure he gives
for the
survival rate of swimming
polar bears (read the article) is just napkin math, not statistics.
Relative to recent years and potential impacts on
polar bear health and
survival in Canada, there is nothing alarming in the pattern or speed of sea ice breakup
for 2017, either over Hudson Bay, the southern Beaufort, or the eastern high Arctic.
Polar bears are one of the most sensitive Arctic marine mammals to climate warming because they spend most of their lives on sea ice.35 Declining sea ice in northern Alaska is associated with smaller
bears, probably because of less successful hunting of seals, which are themselves ice - dependent and so are projected to decline with diminishing ice and snow cover.36, 37,38,39 Although
bears can give birth to cubs on sea ice, increasing numbers of female
bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied population in the Arctic, sea ice is now absent
for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced
survival of both the youngest and oldest
bears, 42 and a population now estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar
polar bear population declines are projected
for the Beaufort Sea region.45
Unfortunately, several bad years
for ringed seal pup
survival caused by shallow snow depth in spring means that in subsequent years, fewer seal pups will be produced
for polar bears to eat —
polar bears end up suffering after a bit of a lag.
Fortunately, a new study by David Legates, director of the University of Delaware's Center
for Climatic Research, throws cold water on the claim global warming threatens
polar bears survival.
As Peter Molnar, one of the paper's authors, says in an interview with the BBC, ``... as the climate warms, we may not see any substantial effect on
polar bear reproduction and
survival for a while, up until some threshold is passed, at which point reproduction and
survival will decline dramatically and very rapidly.»
«Two findings were most critical to FWS's listing determination: (1) extensive declines in Arctic sea ice extent already have occurred and are projected to continue; and (2) the
polar bear depends on sea ice
for its continued
survival as a species.
Research there has shown a direct link between the loss of sea ice and the health of
polar bears, including a connection between an earlier spring melting of sea ice and lower
survival rates
for cubs.