Bender, F. A. - M., Ramanathan, V. & Tselioudis, G. Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983 — 2008: observational support
for a poleward shift.
There is evidence in satellite and radiosonde data and in observational data
for poleward expansion of the tropical circulation by as much as a few degrees of latitude since the 1970s [34]--[35], but natural variability may have contributed to that expansion [36].
The paper's introduction has one sentence on the observational evidence
for a poleward shift in storm tracks reported in earlier papers (McCabe et al. 2001; Fyfe 2003).
There is evidence in satellite and radiosonde data and in observational data
for poleward expansion of the tropical circulation by as much as a few degrees of latitude since the 1970s [34]--[35], but natural variability may have contributed to that expansion [36].
Not exact matches
Ocean temperatures between 82 and 86 degrees Fahrenheit seem to be «ideal
for the genesis of tropical cyclones,» Emanuel says, «and as that belt migrates
poleward, which surely it must as the whole ocean warms, the tropical cyclone genesis regions might just move with it.
«It may mean the thermodynamically favorable conditions
for these storms are migrating
poleward,» adds Emanuel, the Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at MIT.
You can eliminate anything on the 70 % of the planet that's water, everything
poleward of 57 ° latitude over which UARS does not orbit, and
for all practical purposes the empty areas of the world, such as the Amazon, most of Australia, the Sahara, the Tibetan Plateau, much of Siberia, and even a lot of the western interior of the United States.
For example, the Gulf of Mexico has an east - west coastline that prevents a northerly or
poleward shift of species in response to warming ocean waters,.
Despite large year - to - year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving
poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts
for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].
For example, they predicted the expansion of the Hadley cells, the
poleward movement of storm tracks, the rising of the tropopause, the rising of the effective radiating altitude, the circulation of aerosols in the atmosphere, the modelling of the transmission of radiation through the atmosphere, the clear sky super greenhouse effect that results from increased water vapor in the tropics, the near constancy of relative humidity, and polar amplification, the cooling of the stratosphere while the troposphere warmed.
TRMM only covers 50S - 50N, but according to the reanalysis data, precip rates
for the study area
for the TRMM study area were about 6x that of the
poleward areas, averaged over 1979 - 2016.
He said, «I feel it is highly likely that the deep storm and strong
poleward advection of heat will have profound implications
for the weather in the U.S. and Europe over the coming weeks if not months.»
In any case, ocean data showed a slight slowing of the
poleward water transport, not the increase that the AMO explanation called
for.
More recently hurricanes have been implicated as heat pumps responsible
for up to 15 % of
poleward oceanic heat transport.
So, I was curious about your recent paper and whether there was any discussion of changes in the THC
poleward of the GIS shelf vs the data from the RAPID program line located at 26.5 N. With the decline in minimum extent and volume of sea - ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean, with consequences
for both climate and weather.
Is less
poleward transport of heat by the Gulf Stream as the AMOC weakens a positive feedback
for global warming, since that energy will escape more slowly in the humid (higher water vapor GHG effect) tropics than near the poles?
Of course, there are plenty of negative feedbacks as well (the increase in long wave radiation as temperatures rise or the reduction in atmospheric
poleward heat flux as the equator - to - pole gradient decreases) and these (in the end) are dominant (having kept Earth's climate somewhere between boiling and freezing
for about 4.5 billion years and counting).
There are many lines of independent empirical evidence
for global warming, from accelerated ice loss from the Arctic to Antarctica to the
poleward migration of plant and animal species across the globe.
Although more research is needed, there is some agreement among oceanographers that,
for the entire area north of 30 N latitude, the ocean's
poleward transport of heat is the equivalent of about 15 watts per square metre of the earth's surface (W / m2).
So
for AGW theory to have been correct we would have to have seen that hot spot at the top of the troposphere and the presence of that hotspot would have prevented the jets moving
poleward, indeed it should have sent them equatorward instead because it would have had the same effect as a reduction of the height of the tropopause and an enhancement of the intensity of the tropopause.
«Changes in the
Poleward Energy Flux by the Atmosphere and Ocean as a Possible Cause
for Ice Ages.»
Reduction in ice free area, a positive feedback to the atmosphere increases
poleward ocean heat transport, a negative feedback
for the oceans.
The
poleward heat current reaches its maximum in the vicinity of 35 ° latitude, accounting
for the position of the Ferrel cell between the Hadley and Polar Cells.
So one can rationalize the result that the centers of action
for internal variability in the oceans migrate
poleward from the tropics and subtropics to higher latitudes as one moves to lower frequencies.
For falsification we would need to observe events such as the mid latitude jets moving
poleward during a cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually negative Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar activity and a warming ocean phase.
But the broad long - term changes in the climate projected by models are
for trade winds to weaken while mid-latitude westerly winds strengthen and move
poleward.
Conversely, during low solar activity during the Little Ice Age, transport of warm water was reduced by 10 % and Arctic sea ice increased.17 Although it is not a situation I would ever hope
for, if history repeats itself, then natural climate dynamics of the past suggest, the current drop in the sun's output will produce a similar cooler climate, and it will likely be detected first as a slow down in the
poleward transport of ocean heat.22 Should we prepare
for this possibility?
And despite being Antarctica's most
poleward coastline, there has been a great loss of glacier ice around the Amundsen Sea, illustrated by redder tones, causing a net loss of ice
for the continent.48
For SSM / I, the hole is 310 km in radius and is located
poleward of 87 degrees north.
Thus when more energy enters the oceans the strength of El Nino will be enhanced relative to La Nina and the effect will be cumulative over time
for so long as the sun is sufficiently active with the jets sufficiently
poleward.
Panel (a) shows CRUTEM3
poleward of 20 ° N from 1988 — 2010
for the four seasons: winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA), and autumn (SON).
A simple engine model (nothing new here but simplification) with the firebox in, say, 20S to 20N and the exhaust 50 - 60Lat and
poleward effected by air and water circulation (return circulation of cold
for re - heating).
and the area of the earth
poleward from the 60 latitudes constitutes ~; 13.5 % of the globe, then this area is responsible
for 0.135 x 3.0 = 0.4 C degrees contributed to global temperature anomaly.
There, planktic δ18O records from cores MD95 - 2010 and MD99 - 2304 (
for core locations see Fig. 7e) document a climatic optimum in the early - middle part of the LIG between about 126 and 116 ka, related to a strong
poleward extension of warm Atlantic Water61, 62, 64.
Then
for the next ten years until the late 90s albedo gradually declined as the jets moved
poleward and the troposphere warmed.
Poleward of latitudes 66 ° 30 ′ N and 66 ° 30 ′ S, the tilt of the planet is such that
for at least one complete day (at 66 ° 30 ′) and as long as six months (at 90 °), the Sun is above the horizon during the summer season and below the horizon during the winter.
For example, one of the clearest predicted ecological impacts of climate is a
poleward shift in the ranges of plant and animal species.
As I have documented before Parmesan has «inaccurately» blamed CO2 warming
for extinctions due to lost habitat from urban sprawl, hijacked conservation success to argue
poleward movement of butterflies was caused by climate change, and blamed CO2 and extreme weather
for a population extinction caused by logging while neighboring natural populations thrived.
For that energy to be transferred
poleward instead of lost to space, it would have to encounter a resistance equal to 165Wm - 2 which would produce a «DWLR» of 2 * 165 or 330Wm - 2 + / - a touch.
Challenges also remain
for altimeter measurements
poleward of the 66 ° turning latitude of the reference missions and in regions covered by sea ice.»
12: Indigenous Peoples).91, 101 Warming also releases human - caused pollutants, such as
poleward - transported mercury and organic pesticides, from thawing permafrost and brings new diseases to Arctic plants and animals, including subsistence food species, posing new health challenges, especially to rural communities.165, 166 Positive health effects of warming include a longer growing season
for gardening and agriculture.5, 167
Once you prove that to 95 % that species ranges are retreating
poleward, they ask
for proof about specific species.
Despite large year - to - year variability of temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average temperature) moving
poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts
for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].
But climate models show a consistent tendency
for areas such as the southwest U.S. to dry out in the 21st Century as the sinking branch of the tropical Hadley circulation expands
poleward and carries drier air down to the surface [8].
For example, equatorward - moving weather systems — known as «transient eddies» — fulfill much of the
poleward energy export required to balance the net energy input, with the energy transport associated with vertical motion times gross moist stability less important than in the ITCZ.
An active sun gives more zonal jets and / or more
poleward climate zones with less global cloudiness and more energy into the oceans
for gradually strengthening El Ninos as compared to La Ninas and a gradual rise in global tropospheric temperatures.
The primary effect of the two tropical Hadley cells (one
for each hemisphere) is
for the rising hot air at the equator to suck surface air from the higher latitudes (north and south) along the surface towards the equator, pump it vertically at the equator, and at a suitable height push it
polewards, one pole per cell, up where the jet planes fly.
Bottom panels show the present - day, annually averaged sensible heat (c) and evaporation (d) fluxes
poleward of 60N
for a 16 - member CMIP5 climate model ensemble using the RCP8.5 scenario.
The large scale atmospheric circulation «cells» shift
polewards in warmer periods (
for example, interglacials compared to glacials), but remain largely constant as they are, fundamentally, a property of the Earth's size, rotation rate, heating and atmospheric depth, all of which change little.
A strong high, moving
polewards may bring westerly winds
for days.