We see the overall environment as
positive for risk assets, but expect more muted returns and higher volatility than in 2017.
Our analysis of cycles and markets suggests that the combination of weaker growth and higher inflation is not
good for risk assets such as equities.
This raises the vital question, then, of what the prospects are
for risk assets under evolving policy liquidity?
But we believe the above - trend level of growth should be
positive for risk assets, and it's helping companies deliver on earnings.
Rising geopolitical risk is not automatically bad
news for risk assets, but we believe a new U.S. approach to trade bears watching.
The people here who really know how options work (who understand the concept of gamma) know what this could potentially
mean for risk assets.
As 2017 came to a close there were numerous virtuous factors providing a
tailwind for risk assets, including about $ 1.7 trillion of new global liquidity injections during the last three quarters, despite the commencement of Federal Reserve balance sheet runoff.
While the bond market predicts no rate hike from the Fed next week, the future of the bank's balance sheet is at least that
important for risk assets and the Dollar.
It's clearly still early in a year that will likely be more
volatile for risk assets than 2017, but if the first bout of market volatility in 2018 was a test of ETFs as an efficient investment vehicle and capital markets tool, we believe they passed this test.
«The looser for longer message from the Fed and the lowering of the median point of rate rise projections is seen as a
plus for risk assets as can been seen in global equities,» said fund manager GAM's head of multi-asset portfolios, Larry Hatheway.
The divergence was years in the making, with the breakdown starting in 2013 due to expectations of monetary tightening which dampened the
appetite for risk assets like commodities.
Late - cycle expansions often coincide with a peak level of activity, which historically has implied less
upside for risk assets and a generally less favorable risk - return profile than earlier in the cycle.
The global synchronized recovery, which was an important
catalyst for risk assets in 2017, has appeared to come into question in recent months as data reflected a slowdown in many parts of Europe.
Invest wisely, and be wary, because the
market for risk assets is high, and what if the Fed stops supporting it?
Nevertheless, while many believe the Senate would follow through with Rousseff's impeachment, we can not rule out the opposite outcome, which would likely be
adverse for risk assets especially given high market expectations.
The Fed bailout of beleaguered financial firm Bear Stearns temporarily provided
relief for risk assets, but the relief rally ended three months later.
Now, with the pricing mechanism for every long duration asset - 10 - year Treasury yields - rising beyond 3 percent, we have yet another
headwind for risk assets.
The overall sentiment was extremely
bullish for risk assets, with almost 60 percent of clients rating equities as their investment of choice for 2018.
Fiscal Stress As Jelf notes, «The first three are
positive for risk assets and have so far outweighed the negative impact from fiscal stresses.
Rising geopolitical risk is not automatically bad
news for risk assets, but we believe a new U.S. approach...
A growth agenda may be good for equities, but the untethering of the monetary policy experiment may not be good for equities, and there may be some ambiguity as to what this
means for risk assets and portfolios.
As seen below, by next year the G4 central banks will not only have slowed the growth of their balance sheets but will be contracting them for the first time since 2015, a very volatile
year for risk assets.
The sustained global economic expansion and an outlook for gradual monetary policy normalization — with inflation moving slowly back toward trend in the U.S. — make for a positive
backdrop for risk assets.
«While current fiscal policy and robust economic growth remain a
tailwind for risk assets, the recent uptick in market volatility, alongside the long - term shift in monetary policy, have created real reasons for concern among investors about their traditional market exposure,» Context's chief investment officer, John Culbertson, said in the statement.
The market implications: A slower expected pace of Fed tightening is pausing the dollar's rise, and this bodes
well for risk assets and emerging markets in particular.
This overall environment is positive
for risk assets, in our view, but we expect more muted returns and higher volatility than in 2017.
Rising geopolitical risk is not automatically bad news
for risk assets, but we believe a new U.S. approach...
Rising geopolitical risk is not automatically bad news
for risk assets, but we believe a new U.S. approach to trade bears watching.
But we believe the above - trend level of growth should be positive
for risk assets, and it's helping companies deliver on earnings.
It utilizes a multi-step process to monitor and score each individual indicator based on how positive or negative it is
for risk assets.
This overall environment is positive
for risk assets, in our view, but we expect more muted returns and higher volatility than in 2017.
Third, I don't get the last comment, except that the person does not understand that periods where lending is expanding usually offers the highest returns
for risk assets.
2017 has been a great year
for risk assets.