Melt ponds are critical
for sea ice albedo and therefore modeling the loss of sea ice with global warming in global climate models.
Not exact matches
«The unmanned SRB buoy we built made it possible
for the first time to generate continuous data on
albedo and other properties of
sea ice over a long period,» says Dr Gerland.
Recently, however,
ice - ocean «
albedo feedback» has emerged as a key cause
for sea ice melt.
Virtually
ice - free summers in the arctic
sea could well arrive by 2030, with troubling implications
for accelerated
albedo feedback and possibly disruptive changes in the jet stream.
This appears to show the extra snow has done little or nothing to compensate
for the loss
sea ice as far effective
albedo is concerned.
After all the
sea /
ice albedo difference is large and the southern oceans are more likely to be part of an ocean mechanism
for propagating the Milankovitch effect.
I had said that the main forcing
for sea ice retreat was from the
albedo flip.
However, Perovich et al. make the usual error in assuming the values
for albedo of the ocean and
sea -
ice.
As
for irreversible, if an
ice sheet starts flowing, or if an
albedo change from
sea ice gets locked in, I could imagine a climate change being essentially irreversible even if CO2 was brought back down, but it's just speculation, nothing more.
On the other side of the equation, the
albedo for sea -
ice is likely to be too large, since the
sea -
ice begins to melt and form ponds, which have properties much closer to that of open water.
Here's an interesting thought
for the
ice experts, maybe Andy could pick this up, since he's done a very decent job of following up on my question: I've read suggestions that increased
sea emissivity from the Arctic waters would gain relative to the loss of
albedo from increasingly
ice - free
seas.
For instance, the effect of soot making snow and
sea ice darker has a higher efficacy than an equivalent change in CO2 with the same forcing, mainly because there is a more important
ice -
albedo feedback in the soot case.
(57j)
For surface + tropospheric warming in general, there is (given a cold enough start) positive surface
albedo feedback, that is concentrated at higher latitudes and in some seasons (though the temperature response to reduced summer
sea ice cover tends to be realized more in winter when there is more heat that must be released before
ice forms).
A typo in mine at # 25 is where 40,000 m3 should read 400,000 m3, and an addendum is the reference
for the forcing from the
Albedo Loss feedback shown in the satellite record: «Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» See: http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-20
Albedo Loss feedback shown in the satellite record: «Observational determination of
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» See: http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-20
albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic
sea ice» See: http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf
Subject of some specific concern about global warming because of large temperature rises predicted
for the arctic, and because of some arctic - specific feedback effects (e.g. the
albedo feedback following loss of arctic
sea ice).
Global average temperature is lower during glacial periods
for two primary reasons: 1) there was only about 190 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, and other major greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) were also lower 2) the earth surface was more reflective, due to the presence of lots of
ice and snow on land, and lots more
sea ice than today (that is, the
albedo was higher).
Apart from these last concerns, the WAIS is much less worrying than the GIS, because the huge thermal inertia and
albedo effect of the EAIS, the antarctic continent itself, and the large amount of antarctic
sea ice in the southern winter, all act to reduce the degree of warming
for the WAIS (whereas the GIS is the victim of various unfortunate circumstances which amplify warming there).
I also believe that soot and all the other aerosols that combine and rain out has contributed to significant
albedo changes and is food
for localized warming from biochemical activity in the boreal north that has significantly contributed to the melting of land and
sea ice.
However, even a smaller figure (I had calculated about 0.17 W / m ^ 2 based on your inflated figure
for total planetary
albedo, but you can check it out) is still significant when compared with the total flux imbalance, which I think is a more informative comparison than an arbitrarily selected change in cloud cover, because it compares the
sea ice reduction with the effects of all climate variations that have been operating in recent years..
The high reflectivity of this new planetary layer, the Lucrosphere, will radically incease our planet's
albedo, and so compensate
for the loss of reflective Arctic
sea ice that threatens to accelerate global warming.
A simple method
for estimating the global radiative forcing caused by the
sea -
ice -
albedo feedback in the Arctic is presented.
The cryosphere derives its importance to the climate system from a variety of effects, including its high reflectivity (
albedo)
for solar radiation, its low thermal conductivity, its large thermal inertia, its potential
for affecting ocean circulation (through exchange of freshwater and heat) and atmospheric circulation (through topographic changes), its large potential
for affecting
sea level (through growth and melt of land
ice), and its potential
for affecting greenhouse gases (through changes in permafrost)(Chapter 4).
Even with near zero CO2, and the Sun 3 - 4 % dimmer than now, the tropics require
albedo help from clouds and encroaching
sea ice for global freeze - 0ver — hence, an interesting science problem that needs careful cold - climate cloud and ocean dynamics modeling.
Increasing austral - spring insolation combined with
sea -
ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible
for this warming.»
This study concluded that although there was a decrease in
sea ice in recent years there was an increase in cloudiness that more than made up
for the loss of
albedo from the
sea ice.
Poitou & Bréon do not explain why the
ice pack volume would be relevant
for the
albedo; according to Haas (2005)[47] the changes of the thickness of the
sea ice are small since they are correctly measured by an airborne radio apparatus, only over the Arctic.
The gains in Antarctic
sea ice — the
sea ice area that DOES MATTER to
albedo are 25 %, 30 % and as high as 43 % GREATER than the 1980 - 2010 «average»
sea ice for each day of the year.
For precisely the same core reason (apsidal precession) the opposite occurs in the southern hemisphere: less insolation at far southern latitudes,
sea ice melting delayed,
albedo increasing, less energy absorbed: growing
sea ice: the
ice albedo feedback effect acting negatively.
Hori et al.; 5.0 million square kilometers; Heuristic — remote sensing Basically, there is no change from last month except
for an additional rough estimation of the arctic
sea -
ice albedo.
Dekker (Public), 4.60, (4.15 - 5.05 standard deviation range), Statistical Arctic
sea ice decline has global implications
for Northern Hemisphere weather patterns and Arctic eco systems and wild life alike, and thus it is concerning that our global climate models so far appear to underestimate the observed rate of decline based on
albedo amplification of
sea ice alone.
The amount of
sea ice is rather sensitive to climate change: meltwater ponding,
for instance, dramatically increases the
albedo of
sea ice, leading to enhanced
ice melt.
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i)
for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal changes in climate; (ii)
for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the change in cloud radiative properties associated with a change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii)
for snow
albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv)
for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of
sea ice thickness.
Moreover, the loss of
sea ice would have altered the planetary
albedo, causing the planet to warm until clouds cover had increased enough
for the radiation balance at the TOA to be restored.
Seems to me David's mistake is not noticing that the rapid events are internal to the climate system, not external; they may cause fast changes in
albedo for example
for a while; and they are modeled, see Dr. Bitz's work on Arctic
sea ice, or any model including volcanos or Atlantic deep water currents etc..
When the Arctic
sea ice suddenly disppears the climate will warm until it settles into a new state where there is increased cloud to compensate
for the loss of
albedo from the
sea ice.
The NCAR Community Climate System model 20th century simulations
for CMIP5 (Gent et al. 2011) arguably qualifies as a completely forward calculation, with forcing data sets being selected a priori and no tuning of parameters to the 20th century climate other than the
sea ice albedo and the low cloud relative humidity threshold.
These runs are examined
for evidence of accelerated climate change associated with the removal of
sea ice, particularly due to increasing surface
albedo feedback.