For years, different approaches to projecting future sea level rise have arrived at different results, but the gap has recently been closing, which Mengel described as «a really good sign
for sea level science» — even if it's ominous news for humanity.
Not exact matches
According to the Center
for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS), an NSF
Science and Technology Center led by the University of Kansas, the melt from Greenland's ice sheet contributes to global
sea level rise at a rate of 0.52 millimeters annually.
«Previous projections, as summarised by IPCC, have not exaggerated but may in some respects even have underestimated the change, in particular
for sea level,» conclude the scientists, writing in
Science.
Map showing the Nile River delta with a
sea level rise of 1 meter (dark blue) and urban areas (hatched) courtesy of Center
for International Earth
Science Information Network / Columbia University
Elisabetta Pierazzo of the Planetary
Science Institute in Tucson, Arizona, and colleagues used a global climate model to study how water vapour and
sea salt thrown up from an impact will affect ozone
levels for years after the event.
«As length scales become smaller from several hundred miles to a few tens of miles, we discovered the point at which geostrophic balance becomes no longer valid — meaning that
sea level is no longer useful
for calculating ocean circulation,» said Qiu, professor at the UHM School of Ocean and Earth
Science and Technology (SOEST).
«This reassessment narrows the probable range of
sea level rise based on the latest
science,» said Donald Boesch, president of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and chair of the group of experts that assembled the
science,» said Donald Boesch, president of the University of Maryland Center
for Environmental
Science and chair of the group of experts that assembled the
Science and chair of the group of experts that assembled the report.
However, the city needs to be planning
for those types of huge barriers more as part of a longer - term plan, and as preparation
for the possibility that climate change and
sea -
level rise may be worse than expected, warns the analysis, published last week in
Science.
Scientific American editors Mark Fischetti, Dina Maron and Seth Fletcher talk about the info they picked up at the just - concluded annual meeting of the American Association
for the Advancement of
Science in Washington, D.C. Subjects covered include gravitational waves, whether there's really a war on science, the growing concern over Zika virus, sea level rise and advances in artificial intell
Science in Washington, D.C. Subjects covered include gravitational waves, whether there's really a war on
science, the growing concern over Zika virus, sea level rise and advances in artificial intell
science, the growing concern over Zika virus,
sea level rise and advances in artificial intelligence.
Governments agree they should focus most on cutting greenhouse gas emissions under the 2015 Paris agreement rather than on
science - fiction - like short - cuts to limit temperatures blamed
for causing more heatwaves, floods and rising
sea levels.
«The tide gauge measurements are essential
for determining the uncertainty in the GMSL (global mean
sea level) acceleration estimate,» said co-author Gary Mitchum, USF College of Marine
Science.
Mild oxygen
levels in shallow
seas but oxygen - poor deep oceans lasted
for some 1.3 billion years during a time that has been dubbed the «Boring Billion» but eventually led to the development of mitochondria that now power multicellular planet and animal life (Nick Lane, New Scientist, February 10, 2010; Rachel Ehrenberg,
Science News, September 29, 2009; Johnston et al, 2009; and H.D. Holland, 2006).
So far, the climate
science used in courts has focused mostly on overall trends and gradual processes such as
sea level rise, said Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center
for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School in New York, who said he has no financial stake in climate change litigation.
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For Keystone XL «Pause» New York Prepares for Up to 6 Feet of Sea Level R
For Keystone XL «Pause» New York Prepares
for Up to 6 Feet of Sea Level R
for Up to 6 Feet of
Sea Level Rise
Scientific knowledge input into process based models has much improved, reducing uncertainty of known
science for some components of
sea -
level rise (e.g. steric changes), but when considering other components (e.g. ice melt from ice sheets, terrestrial water contribution)
science is still emerging, and uncertainties remain high.
Glaciers and ice caps contributed 28 % of total
sea level rise compared to 14 % combined
for Greenland and Antarctica
for 1993 - 2003, using IPCC 4th assessment numbers, or GIC 33 % / Greenland and Antarctica 20 %
for 2006 using Meier et al (
Science 2007) numbers.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods
for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with
Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data
for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global
sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
Koenig's careful description of the
science and the uncertainty about what the future holds prompted a public spanking from the Center
for American Progress climate blogger Joe Romm, who charged her with «scientific reticence» — alluding to NASA scientist James Hansen's paper criticizing
sea -
level researchers
for being overly cautious in 2007 conclusions about the possible rate of
sea rise in this century.
The authors of the study — Ricarda Winkelmann and Anders Levermann from the Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research, Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution
for Science and Andy Ridgwell of the University of Bristol — find that the loss of the entire Antarctic ice sheet would take millenniums, but up to 100 feet of
sea level rise could result within 1,000 years, with the rate of the rise beginning to increase a century or two from now.
For those that are interested, I have posted some further discussion of the
sea level budget and the possibility of errors caused by the introduction of Argo data on Roger Pielke Sr.'s Climate
Science weblog.
Over the short time scales considered, the model uncertainty is larger than the uncertainty coming from the choice of emission scenario;
for sea level it completely dominates the uncertainty (see e.g. the graphs in our
Science paper).
The
science pointing to a rising human influence on the climate system is simply delineating the boundaries of the problem — and they are still very fuzzy boundaries on many important points (the extent of warming and pace of
sea level rise, just
for starters).
Rick believes that «accurate reporting on projections
for sea -
level rise by 2100 demonstrates a bright spot at the interface of climate
science and mass media».
-- Susan Solomon, Nature The Long Thaw is written
for anyone who wishes to know what cutting - edge
science tells us about the modern issue of global warming and its effects on the pathways of atmospheric chemistry, as well as global and regional temperatures, rainfall,
sea level, Arctic
sea - ice coverage, melting of the continental ice sheets, cyclonic storm frequency and intensity and ocean acidification.
Dr. Mörner attacked the
science of climate change, while claiming that he is mission on
Sea Level Change of INQUA (International nion
for Quaternary Research).
To meet urgent societal needs
for useful information on
sea level, WCRP has implemented the theme «Sea Level Rise and Regional Impacts», as one of its cross-cutting science questions, or Grand Challenges (GC), involving a cross section of core projects and working grou
sea level, WCRP has implemented the theme «Sea Level Rise and Regional Impacts», as one of its cross-cutting science questions, or Grand Challenges (GC), involving a cross section of core projects and working gr
level, WCRP has implemented the theme «
Sea Level Rise and Regional Impacts», as one of its cross-cutting science questions, or Grand Challenges (GC), involving a cross section of core projects and working grou
Sea Level Rise and Regional Impacts», as one of its cross-cutting science questions, or Grand Challenges (GC), involving a cross section of core projects and working gr
Level Rise and Regional Impacts», as one of its cross-cutting
science questions, or Grand Challenges (GC), involving a cross section of core projects and working groups.
For example, the state science panel report that provoked such official consternation describing the scientific basis for concerns about sea level rise was titled: «North Carolina Sea Level Rise Assessment Report.&raq
For example, the state
science panel report that provoked such official consternation describing the scientific basis
for concerns about sea level rise was titled: «North Carolina Sea Level Rise Assessment Report.&raq
for concerns about
sea level rise was titled: «North Carolina Sea Level Rise Assessment Report.&raq
sea level rise was titled: «North Carolina Sea Level Rise Assessment Report.&r
level rise was titled: «North Carolina
Sea Level Rise Assessment Report.&raq
Sea Level Rise Assessment Report.&r
Level Rise Assessment Report.»
available peer - reviewed,
science - based evidence to model the implications of their proposals
for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, global mean surface temperature,
sea level rise, and other climate change impacts at the global scale.
Requires the Director of the National
Science Foundation and the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to enter into an arrangements with NAS to study: (1) the current status of ice sheet melt, as caused by climate change, with implications for global sea level rise; and (2) the current state of the science on the potential impacts of climate change on patterns of hurricane and typhoon development and the implications for hurricane - prone and typhoon - prone coastal r
Science Foundation and the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to enter into an arrangements with NAS to study: (1) the current status of ice sheet melt, as caused by climate change, with implications
for global
sea level rise; and (2) the current state of the
science on the potential impacts of climate change on patterns of hurricane and typhoon development and the implications for hurricane - prone and typhoon - prone coastal r
science on the potential impacts of climate change on patterns of hurricane and typhoon development and the implications
for hurricane - prone and typhoon - prone coastal regions.
C: increase in atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial to present is anthropogenic (D / A) S: best guess
for likely climate sensitivity (NUM) s: 2 - sigma range of S (NUM) a: ocean acidification will be a problem (D / A) L: expected
sea level rise by 2100 in cm (all contributions)(NUM) B: climate change will be beneficial (D / A) R: CO2 emissions need to be reduced drastically by 2050 (D / A) T: technical advances will take care of any problems (D / A) r: the 20th century global temperature record is reliable (D / A) H: over the last 1000 years global temperature was hockey stick shaped (D / A) D: data has been intentionally distorted by scientist to support the idea of anthropogenic climate change (D / A) g: the CRU - mails are important
for the
science (D / A) G: the CRU - mails are important otherwise (D / A)
-- The Director of the National
Science Foundation and the Administrator of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shall enter into an arrangement with the National Academy of Sciences to complete a study of the current status of ice sheet melt, as caused by climate change, with implications
for global
sea level rise.
Lukovich et al. (Centre
for Earth Observation
Science, U. of Manitoba); 4.6; Heuristic - Dynamics Investigation of dynamical atmospheric contributions in spring to
sea ice conditions in fall, based on comparison of 2011 and 2007 stratospheric and surface winds and
sea level pressure (SLP) in April and May suggests regional differences in
sea ice extent in fall, in a manner consistent with recent studies highlighting the importance of coastal geometry in seasonal interpretations of
sea ice cover (Eisenman, 2010).
And people misuses simulation, as
for example the recent publication by
Science of a «study» which, on faith of simulation shows that
sea levels may rise up to 11 m by 2100 whereas the IPCC «consensus» talks of +60 to 80 cm values!
Their projections
for future
sea level rise were similar to those published in 2013 by scientists convened by the United Nations, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent assessment of climate
science.
In a world where the
sea -
level is rising, the oceans are heating, and the polar ice is melting — all without pause or evident limit — it's no wonder that more - and - more serious yet formerly skeptical scientists — like Dr. Petr Chylek and Adm David Titley
for example — are embracing James Hansen's climate -
science consensus!
Many more flawed or misleading presentations of Global Warming
science exist in the book, including those on Arctic
sea ice thinning, correction of land - based temperature measurements
for the urban heat island effect, satellite vs. ground - based measurements of Earth's warming, and controversies over
sea level rise estimates.
For example, science can identify how much monetary loss might occur if tropical cyclones grow more intense or heat waves more frequent, or identify the land that might be lost in coastal communities for various levels of higher se
For example,
science can identify how much monetary loss might occur if tropical cyclones grow more intense or heat waves more frequent, or identify the land that might be lost in coastal communities
for various levels of higher se
for various
levels of higher
seas.
Monbiot and Lynas's one sop to
science is to link to the official
sea level rise data
for the Maldives.
That's a
sea level rise contribution of about 0.23 mm / year since the 1990s, which is a canyon - sized divergence from the 61 mm / year that adherents of peer - reviewed, «consensus» climate
science have projected
for the coming decades.
Church, who is writing the chapter on
sea level rise
for the IPCC's 2013 update, told Australia's biannual climate
science conference just earlier this week that
sea levels are rising at the upper end of projections by the IPCC - meaning a rise of 60 - 80 cm by 2100.»
Taken together, the latest
science argues that the case
for rapid and disruptive
sea level rise is flimsy at best.
Based on what he's seen in the Arctic, and on the latest
science, Zukunft said he's planning
for six feet of
sea level rise by the end of the century, as polar ice sheets and glaciers melt.
The reality of climate change due to human activity has been widely accepted by climate scientists, and some experts worry that attempts to deny the
science could prevent states from preparing
for sea level rise, extreme weather and other effects of a warming planet.
New research from Virginia Institute of Marine
Science at the College of William & Mary indicates that by 2050
sea levels will exponentially grow
for certain cities on the east coast.
A research paper by two Australian climate
science deniers claimed the Permanent Service
for Mean
Sea Level (PSMSL), based at the UK's National Oceanography Center, had «arbitrarily» altered sea level data from Aden, in Yem
Sea Level (PSMSL), based at the UK's National Oceanography Center, had «arbitrarily» altered sea level data from Aden, in Y
Level (PSMSL), based at the UK's National Oceanography Center, had «arbitrarily» altered
sea level data from Aden, in Yem
sea level data from Aden, in Y
level data from Aden, in Yemen.
«[the CIA's] charter is not the
science of climate change, but the national security impact of phenomena such as desertification, rising
sea levels, population shifts, and heightened competition
for natural resources.
On Wednesday, a federal judge will hold a «climate
science tutorial» as part of San Francisco's and Oakland's nuisance cases against five oil giants
for damages related to
sea level rise.
«In the case of
sea level, society might want to know what is
science's best guess
for the future rise, but
for any practical purposes of coastal protection it is the worst case that is relevant.
In fact, rather than undermine the possibility that severe rises in
sea levels might occur in the future, the
Science studies that Easterbrook cited as evidence
for his point actually reinforce this scenario.
The discovery raises fresh questions about the speed at which
sea levels might rise in a warmer world due to the rate at which parts of the ice sheets slide from the land into the ocean, scientists said at the American Association
for the Advancement of
Science in San Francisco.