Implications of North Atlantic sea surface salinity
for summer precipitation over the US Midwest: Mechanisms and predictive value (J. Climate)
Not exact matches
Apparently, winter
precipitation was more important than
summer temperature
for annual glacier balance when only considering subsets of years with high NAO index and negative AMO index.
In a recent study, Mathias Trachsel (Dept. of Biology, University of Bergen) and Atle Nesje (Dept. of Earth Science, University of Bergen and Uni Research Climate) used simple statistical models to assess and quantify the relative importance of
summer temperature and winter
precipitation for annual mass balances of eight Scandinavian glaciers.
The study demonstrates that winter
precipitation is more important
for maritime glaciers, whereas
summer temperature is more important
for annual balances of continental glaciers.
One climate model at Princeton University's Geo physical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory predicts that central India will have doubled
precipitation, while the centers of continents at middle latitudes — the midwestern United States,
for example — will actually have much drier
summers than they have now (this
summer's drought could, in other words, be a foretaste).
They also conclude that regional
precipitation projections
for warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C remain uncertain, «but the eastern U.S. is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and Northwest are projected to experience drier
summers in the future.»
The CONUS
precipitation total
for summer was 9.19 inches, 0.87 inch above average and the 16th wettest on record.
The end of
summer in the Southern Hemisphere was a dry one
for Australia, with February receiving just 49 percent of average monthly
precipitation, marking the country's 11th driest February on record.
By applying a regional model over a limited domain
for only two selected
summers, the team was not able to investigate the possible downstream
precipitation effect and the impact of irrigation on climatology.
For the Powder River near Locate, May - June precipitation accounts for close to half (43 %) of the annual variability in streamflow, probably because southeastern Montana receives the majority of its annual precipitation in the spring and early summ
For the Powder River near Locate, May - June
precipitation accounts
for close to half (43 %) of the annual variability in streamflow, probably because southeastern Montana receives the majority of its annual precipitation in the spring and early summ
for close to half (43 %) of the annual variability in streamflow, probably because southeastern Montana receives the majority of its annual
precipitation in the spring and early
summer.
We rank the average
summer temperature and
precipitation totals
for our Climate Matters markets.
Temperature and
precipitation data were gathered
for each market's period of record during meteorological
summer.
«Since we get most of our
precipitation from October to May, we really need the melting snow in the dry
summer months to keep streamflows at acceptable levels
for fish, water supply, recreation.»
The main climate ingredient
for wildfire activity in Northwest grasslands is ample winter
precipitation, while the main climate ingredient in forest fires is a hot, dry
summer.
July 4, 2017 • Fire officials warn that an abundance of fresh brush, the result of record - setting
precipitation this winter in California and the Southwest, could provide plenty of fuel
for wildfires this
summer.
In the U.S. Subaru is seen as a niche brand reserved
for the rugged duties of snowy northeast winters, but what shoppers fail to realize is that from rainy South Florida
summers to the constantly wet Northwest where
precipitation is an issue, these are also perfect places
for Subaru's symmetrical all wheel drive to shine.
Weather The weather in January feels like early
summer, with mild temperatures and little chance
for precipitations.
This paper demonstrates there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon
for new climate simulation technology to crack the difficult problem of projecting future
summer precipitation changes in continental interiors.
Most of the West's surface water comes from snowpack, which is declining as more
precipitation falls as rain and snowpack melts earlier, leaving less water available
for summer when it is needed most.
Heat waves, extreme
precipitation events and flooding or extreme droughts, are also what actually cause climate damage —
for instance lower agricultural productivity (as during the extremely hot 2003
summer in Western Europe) or biodiversity decline at ecosystem levels ranging from aquatic desert systems to entire rainforest biomes.
As
for how this could be — and in light of the findings of the references listed above — Rankl et al. reasoned that «considering increasing
precipitation in winter and decreasing
summer mean and minimum temperatures across the upper Indus Basin since the 1960s,» plus the «short response times of small glaciers,» it is only logical to conclude that these facts «suggest a shift from negative to balanced or positive mass budgets in the 1980s or 1990s or even earlier, induced by changing climatic conditions since the 1960s.»
These methods have been significantly improved by fully coupling the hydrologic cycle among land, lake, and atmosphere.94, 95 Without accounting
for that cycle of interactions, a study96 concluded that increases in
precipitation would be negated by increases in winter evaporation from less ice cover and by increases in
summer evaporation and evapotranspiration from warmer air temperatures, under a scenario of continued increases in global emissions (SRES A2 scenario).
Model projections
for precipitation changes are less certain than those
for temperature.12, 2 Under a higher emissions scenario (A2), global climate models (GCMs) project average winter and spring
precipitation by late this century (2071 - 2099) to increase 10 % to 20 % relative to 1971 - 2000, while changes in
summer and fall are not expected to be larger than natural variations.
The decreases in
precipitation are statistically significant
for both winter and
summer precipitation.
For example, in Siberia for the summer season during the years 1936 to 1994 there was a statistically significant decrease in total precipitation of 1.3 % / decade, but the number of days with precipitation also decreas
For example, in Siberia
for the summer season during the years 1936 to 1994 there was a statistically significant decrease in total precipitation of 1.3 % / decade, but the number of days with precipitation also decreas
for the
summer season during the years 1936 to 1994 there was a statistically significant decrease in total
precipitation of 1.3 % / decade, but the number of days with
precipitation also decreased.
Along with the hot
summer, annual
precipitation for 2003 was as much as 12 inches (300 millimeters) below normal, leaving most of Europe in a drought.21 Damages to the agricultural sector were estimated at more than U.S. $ 16 billion (more than $ 13 billion).3, 21 Many areas saw an increase in wildfires, while low water levels in major rivers led to problems ranging from irrigating crops to cooling power plants.4, 21,22
With regard to
precipitation anomalies in
summer, ERA - Interim shows above average rainfall
for Greece and the west of Turkey, whereas E-OBS indicates that these areas are below average.
Precipitation anomaly
for winter, spring,
summer and autumn 2017 relative to the respective seasonal average
for the period 1981 - 2010.
During
summer, most of northern Europe experienced above average
precipitation, as did the Alpine region and the north of Italy and Slovenia, with a number of heavy rainfall events heavily influencing the average
for the season and leading to wide - spread flooding events.
For the 2050s, the range of projected change in the Capital Regional District (CRD) is +1.3 °C to +2.6 °C in
summer, +0.8 °C to +2.4 °C in winter, -5 % to +17 % in winter
precipitation, and -30 % to +1 % in
summer precipitation.
For the 2050s, the range of projected change in Metro Vancouver is +1.4 °C to +2.8 °C in
summer, +0.8 °C to +2.7 °C in winter, -5 % to +16 % in winter
precipitation, and -25 % to +5 % in
summer precipitation.
Multi-model mean changes in surface air temperature (°C, left),
precipitation (mm day — 1, middle) and sea level pressure (hPa, right)
for boreal winter (DJF, top) and
summer (JJA, bottom).
This report discusses our current understanding of the mechanisms that link declines in Arctic sea ice cover, loss of high - latitude snow cover, changes in Arctic - region energy fluxes, atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events; possible implications of more severe loss of
summer Arctic sea ice upon weather patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps in our understanding, and observational and / or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations
for using Arctic sea ice predictions to assess the risk of temperature /
precipitation anomalies and extreme weather events over northern continents.
This is an important capability
for predicting
summer temperatures because observed daily temperatures are usually higher on rainless days and when
precipitation falls less frequently than normal.
Figure 3 shows the relationship between observed surface air temperature and observed
precipitation frequency
for 28
summers, demonstrating that
summers were hotter when it rained less often.
«Since the weather prediction model simulated the frequency and timing of
summer precipitation more reliably than the global model, its daily high temperature predictions
for the future are also believed to be more accurate,» added co-author Leonard Druyan, NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies and Columbia University.
A large fraction of
precipitation in the Amazon basin is recycled, and, therefore, simulations of Amazon deforestation typically generate ≈ 20 — 30 % reductions in
precipitation (78), lengthening of the dry season, and increases in
summer temperatures (79) that would make it difficult
for the forest to reestablish, and suggest the system may exhibit bistability.
In its projection
for South Asia, the technical summary of the report clearly points at «enhanced
summer monsoon
precipitation and increased rainfall extremes of landfall cyclones on the coasts of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea».
Although it is unclear how much of the water pool available
for photosynthesis is derived from winter versus
summer precipitation, research on oxygen isotopes in modern larch suggests that larch rely on spring snow melt and thus integrate the isotopic signal of annual
precipitation (Sugimoto et al., 2002).
Figure 3, above: Regional time series of boreal
summer (JJA) irrigation, ensemble - mean temperature anomalies, and ensemble - mean
precipitation anomalies
for Western North America (130 ° W - 100 ° W, 30 ° N - 50 ° N), India (68 ° E-88 ° E, 8 ° N -36 ° N), and China (98 ° E-122 ° E, 22 ° N - 42 ° N).
For South America, Rusticucci and Penalba (2000) showed that warm
summers are associated with low
precipitation, especially in northeast and central - western Argentina, southern Chile, and Paraguay.
Hot and humid
summers plus frigid winters and year - round
precipitation create risky weather
for Illinois homeowners insurance providers.