The allocations to
the Force over the period for Capital Projects and Overhead Costs are as follows:
Note that orbital
forcing over the periods covered by these periods is made up of monotonic trends.
If only half the warming over 1976 - 2000 (linear trend 0.18 °C / decade) was indeed anthropogenic, and the IPCC AR5 best estimate of the change in anthropogenic
forcing over that period (linear trend 0.33Wm - 2 / decade) is accurate, then the transient climate response (TCR) would be little over 1 °C.
Does Judith really believe that 0.65 degC and zero degC rises are equally likely results of the changes in antho
forcing over the period 1950 - 2010?
Firstly
the forcings over this period are not as well known as in more recent times (solar, aerosols, especially black carbon).
The model simulations (upper right panel) driven by all known climate
forcings over the period in question show a very similar pattern of weakening.
That implies its TCR can be accurately estimated by comparing the GMST response and
forcing over that period.
Max, you write «Non-anthropogenic forcing was between 7 % (IPCC) and 50 % (several solar studies) of total
forcing over this period.
The IPCC statement that most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations» is very much dependent on what weighting was given to natural (mainly solar)
forcing over this period.
For the problem where there is strong integral
forcing over the period of say a half century (such as greenhouse gas forcing), this is more predictable, but trying to tie down a prediction on the timescale of a decade just doesn't work owing to the temporal - spatio chaos that is present.
To test this question, Dessler starts with the UNSUPPORTED ASSUMPTION that there was zero radiative -
forcing over the period, with the possible EXCEPTION of this absurd cloud forcing proposed by that fool Spencer.
To justify his calculation of cloud feedbacks Dessler 2010 NEEDS to assume a zero net
forcing over this period, and hence no warming.
Again, you are claiming that your construction of the net
forcings over this period is better than the published ones, but you do not seem to be making reference to any of the published papers to challenge their methodology and, as TC and Bob have pointed out, ignored important factors in aerosols.
Therefore, subtracting the ocean heat uptake, the total net anthropogenic
forcing over this period is somewhere between -0.07 and 2.15 W / m2, with a most likely value of 1.1 W / m2.
The satellite evidence says the net cloud radiative effect during late century warming was some 1.4 W / m2 — considerably greater than the increase in greenhouse gas
forcing over the period.
It's either that or he has to show that net natural climate
forcings over that period have been slightly less than zero, effectively canceling each other.
That leaves a measly -0.05 C attributable to all other climate
forcings over that period.
Meehl et al. (2004) provide a graph of the natural
forcings over the period in question (Figure 5).
«TCR is defined as the annual mean global surface temperature change at the time of CO2 doubling following a linear increase in CO ₂
forcing over a period of 70 years»
Ok, casting a very rough eye over the solar irradiance graph it looks to me that there has been no more than a 2 w / m2 increase in solar
forcing over the period from 1900 - 1940 (1364.5 to 1366.5 W / m2).
For example, the 1910 - 1945 warming, which explains half the 20th century temperature increase, is based on solar and volcanic (natural)
forcings over that period plus a small GHG increase.
The observed change in solar
forcing over that period, and especially over the last 50 years or so, has been small, and so the resulting hotspot from solar heating is small.
Second, one party was prepared to exert a constant
force over a period of months towards running the trial in an electronic environment.
Not exact matches
Hack the Air
Force — and get paid $ 12,500: That was the highest reward given out in the second go - round of the Air
Force's bug bounty program, which flushed out 3,000 vulnerabilities and paid
over $ 100,000 to white hats
over a 20 - day
period.
In 1997, a DoD IG report found that the Air
Force had failed to report 38 percent of fingerprint cards and 50 percent of criminal case outcomes to the FBI
over a six - month
period from 1995 to 1996, according to a Nov. 7 Associated Press report; a 2015 follow - up found the branch didn't report 39 percent of its fingerprint data
over a two year
period between 2010 and 2012.
The issue
over the
period ahead will be whether these latter
forces prove sufficient to contain inflation in an economy operating with little spare capacity.
Focusing on Canada, let's consider the possible impacts of cyclical and structural
forces on investment
over this
period.
Over a
period from 2013 through 2015, three leaders of an industry - leading Credit Suisse unit that packages mortgages and other loans into securities for sale to investors were
forced to give back a portion of their 2015 bonuses after the firm realized they had failed to complete required «eLearning modules» - computer - based training programs designed to keep employees up - to - date on the latest rules and procedures.
Japan's police
force has arrested 5 people from Tokyo and Hyogo on April 16th
over a fraudulent transaction of ¥ 190 mln ($ 1.7 mln) worth of Bitcoins.A total of 12 men have been arrested in association with this crime
over a
period of 11 months.
When aiming for quick stock gains of 10 - 15 %
over a 1 - 2 week
period, swing traders can often sell into strength, not be
forced to sit through an ugly market selloff.
Even more startling,
over 350,000 young workers left the labour
force entirely
over that same
period.
Unemployment has edged up
over the recent
period, reaching a rate of 8.7 per cent in March, and labour
force participation has come off the peaks recorded two years ago.
But if prices have gradually moved to where they are
over a long
period of time, in response to legitimate secular market
forces and conditions, if participants have had sufficient time to grow accustomed to them, to psychologically anchor to them, such that they see them as normal and appropriate, then the basis for questioning their sustainability isn't going to be as strong.
It's a busy travel season for me, so I read Christena Cleveland's book, Disunity in Christ: Uncovering the Hidden
Forces that Keep Us Apart,
over a
period of several months and mostly on airplanes, where I suspect my frantic underlining and audible «amens» may have made a few of my seatmates uncomfortable.
No doubt, too, if the President remains true to form, he must have «an important speech» scheduled sometime in this
period, perhaps to be delivered from a window of Air
Force One, thirty thousand feet above ground, to those bitter and benighted citizens of Western Pennsylvania
over whom he will be flying.
Only with the late medieval
period's renewed interest in the external world, in the laws of the natural world and in control
over the
forces of nature did civilization get back on track.
Even though this was a
period in which Turkish
forces captured Cyprus and Crete, were victorious
over Austria, and conquered Baghdad, their successes did not check the Empire's decline.
Pentagon documents refer to fighting a nuclear war «
over a protracted
period» and argue that American nuclear
forces «must prevail and be able to
force the Soviet Union to seek earliest termination on terms favorable to the United States.»
According to a Government Accounting Office study, the U.S. Air
Force spent $ 3.3 million on drug interdiction, using sophisticated AWACS surveillance planes
over a 15 - month
period ending in 1987.
Maybe the most obvious warning sign was the attack on General Eric Shinseki, who had suggested that an Iraq invasion would require a
force of several hundred thousand American troops
over a
period of several years.
The Italian dairy sector is starting to look up after a long
period of restructuring that
forced more than 30,000 farmers to shut down but tensions remain between producers and processors
over prices, according to a USDA report.
Both were brutally
forced to the ground where they struggled, terrified as they were trussed with rope
over a
period of many minutes until tightly bound, they had their throats cut by inexperienced slaughterers resulting in long, painful deaths.
Richardson has appeared in 73 games
over his five - year career and has a total of 19 sacks, 169 tackles and six
forced fumbles
over that
period.
When new moms are
forced to go back to work, it becomes much more difficult to breastfeed their children
over long
periods of time.
Ministers were
forced to abandon a key vote guaranteeing the passage of the Lords reform bill through the Commons
over a 14 - day
period after it became clear it would have been roundly defeated by Tory rebels voting with the Labour party.
This tracks Senator Schumer's movement pattern
over the same
period, showing that the national political trend is the moving
force.
On an issue of such constitutional importance, it is only right that it isn't rushed through, and a long and thoughtful
period of consultation is undertaken ensuring that the measure is balanced, fair, and comes into
force slightly after hell freezes
over.
Religious groups were given a 21 - month transition
period when the rules came into
force, after a row
over the issue alarmed then - prime minister Tony Blair, who became a Catholic shortly after leaving Downing Street.
We have seen hospitals consolidate; not - for - profits go extended
periods without regular reimbursements, and we have been
forced to make painful cuts to our assistance for our most vulnerable, all while closing more than $ 42 billion in deficit
over the last two years.
According to a deal struck earlier this year, the plant's operations will be phased out
over a four - year
period and its shutdown and subsequent impact on the regional economy and environment will be the subject of a governor's task
force consisting of both state and local lawmakers as well as various officials from Cuomo's administration.