Not exact matches
Last year, Microsoft Ventures chief Nagraj Kashyap told VentureBeat that the overwhelming majority
of startups the company invests in are
using clouds that compete with Azure at the time
of the deal, and the tech titan doesn't
force a change.
Using mathematical models
of the subtle
forces that knock them loose — the tug
of passing stars, interstellar gas
clouds, and especially the gravitational fields
of the galaxy itself — Harold Levison
of the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado, has estimated how many other objects populate the Oort
cloud.
As I understand it, there are at least four kinds
of climate change: natural variation, greenhouse
forcing, land -
use forcing, and particle
forcing (associated with
cloud formations that lead to cooling).
However, in view
of the fact that
cloud feedbacks are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the fact that the energy balance model
used by Schmittner et al can not compute changes in
cloud radiative
forcing is particularly serious.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been
used to infer the climate
forcing by aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a
forcing in the past decade
of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the direct aerosol
forcing and indirect effects via induced
cloud changes.
Since those who believed in Manifest Destiny also believed that Whites had the right to disregard treaties and rights
of the Native American, they were surprised at Red
Cloud's ability to
use his
forces as an effective military leader.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols,
cloud cover, land
use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition
of various
forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect
of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
Since many
of these processes result in non-symmetric time, location and temperature dependant feedbacks (eg water vapor,
clouds, CO2 washout, condensation, ice formation, radiative and convective heat transfer etc) then how can a model that
uses yearly average values for the
forcings accurately reflect the results?
These
forcings are spatially heterogeneous and include the effect
of aerosols on
clouds and associated precipitation [e.g., Rosenfeld et al., 2008], the influence
of aerosol deposition (e.g., black carbon (soot)[Flanner et al. 2007] and reactive nitrogen [Galloway et al., 2004]-RRB-, and the role
of changes in land
use / land cover [e.g., Takata et al., 2009].
The technique to be
used, presumably marine
cloud brightening (since it is the only way to apply a local
forcing) may or may not be effective in the summertime Gulf given the air quality and lack
of low
clouds.
Since the true impacts
of longer term natural variability are not known and the one confidence estimates
of aerosol and
cloud forcings used to tune the models to that «range
of comfort» are quite a bit more uncertain that previously considered, that it might just be time for a do over.
There should be support for things that will better define climate response to
forcing, like better quality aerosol data and better
cloud data, but much less for duplicative modeling efforts, studies that
use wildly uncertain models to make wildly uncertain predictions, and silly chicken - little scare - story studies
of utter doom.
In effect he is saying that it is almost impossible to differentiate the
forcing effect
of cloud cover from the feedback effect — and without being able to do this you can not quantify the feedback sensitvity
of the climate
using cloud cover data.
Instead
of changes in monthly values
of Temp and precip (and
cloud cover) changes in ANNUAL mean temperature were
used to
force LPJ.
The second is that it rebutts Dessler 2010, who
used a zero - lag regression
of flux derivative for clear - sky and all - sky data, under a stated assumption
of no significant radiative
forcing component during the period 2000 to 2010, to conclude that
cloud feedback really is positive.
You can always try to
use the magnitude
of the warming over the past century itself to constrain
cloud feedback, but this gets convolved with estimates
of aerosol
forcing and internal variability.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been
used to infer the climate
forcing by aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a
forcing in the past decade
of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the direct aerosol
forcing and indirect effects via induced
cloud changes.
Again I want to emphasize that my
use of the temperature change rate, rather than temperature, as the predicted variable is based upon the expectation that these natural modes
of climate variability represent
forcing mechanisms — I believe through changes in
cloud cover — which then cause a lagged temperature response.This is what Anthony and I are showing here:
Essentially, it's the average
cloud forcing error made by CMIP5 - level GCMs, when they were
used to hindcast 20 years
of satellite observations
of global
cloud cover (1985 - 2005).
Chuang et al. (2000b) estimated a radiative
forcing for in -
cloud BC
of +0.07 Wm - 2 for the soot concentrations predicted by their model and
using an effective medium approximation.
The model included a more comprehensive set
of natural and human - made climate
forcings than previous studies, including changes in solar radiation, volcanic particles, human - made greenhouse gases, fine particles such as soot, the effect
of the particles on
clouds and land
use.
These studies
use either three - dimensional observed fields
of for example,
clouds, relative humidity and surface reflectance (e.g., Kiehl and Briegleb, 1993; Myhre et al., 1998c), or GCM generated fields (e.g., Boucher and Anderson, 1995; Haywood et al., 1997a) together with the prescribed aerosol distributions from CTMs and detailed radiative transfer codes in calculating the radiative
forcing.
If we
use the Annan and Hargreaves value
of LGM temperature drop ~ 4 K, we get
forcing from
clouds must be
of magnitude ~ 2.76 W m - 2 - which is large, even with the smaller temperature drop.
Chuang et al. (1997)
use an on / off
cloud scheme and report a radiative
forcing lower than these two studies, but the hygroscopic growth is rather suppressed above a relative humidity
of 90 %.
The models do not
use a total
cloud cover, even though that parameter is implied in IPCC's definition
of its radiative
forcing paradigm.
Other types
of forcing that vary across the ensemble include solar variability, the indirect effects
of aerosols on
clouds and the effects
of land
use change on land surface albedo and other land surface properties (Table 10.1).
Using feedback parameters from Fig. 8.14, it can be estimated that in the presence
of water vapor, lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks, but in the absence
of cloud feedbacks, current GCMs would predict a climate sensitivity (± 1 standard deviation)
of roughly 1.9 °C ± 0.15 °C (ignoring spread from radiative
forcing differences).
For the «Aerosol -
Cloud Interaction» (ACI): There is a recent paper http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075280/full which shows that this effect is very small in the real world but models
use it «excessive» to generate a big negative aerosol
forcing (see fig. 2
of the main articel).
He proposes a relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and
clouds by considering a variety
of combinations
of initial ocean temperature, ocean thickness,
cloud feedback, and
forcing by
clouds (neglecting
forcing by CO2 and the water vapor feedback entirely) in a simple energy balance model, and finds a relationship between PDO and
clouds using 9 years
of satellite data.
Compute the surface radiative
forcing and its amplification by the atmospheric warming in a manner following Myhre and Stordal 1997,
using gridded global fields
of of the input variables obtained from observations (e.g. the ECMWF reanalysis, ISCCP
clouds, satellite ozone, some sort
of aerosol optical depth from satellite.
We
use the 9 climate variables
of surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pressure (SLP), precipitation (rain), the top
of atmosphere (TOA) shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) full - sky radiation, clear - sky radiation (CLR, radiative flux where
clouds do not exists), and
cloud radiative
forcing (CRF, radiative effect by
clouds diagnosed from the difference between full - sky and clear - sky radiation, Cess et al. 1990).
Cloud - based, or application - based, protecting privacy is nearly impossible
using any form
of technology -
forced solution.
Pre-loaded apps include less bloat, but a full spectrum
of useful Microsoft Apps: OneDrive with 100 GB free online storage in the
cloud; OneNote for notes and ideas (similar to Google Docs); Skype for online chat and calls (although we can't seem to deactivate it from background
use once signed in, there's no
Force Stop option); and Word, Excel and PowerPoint for those work tasks (all three
of which lacked from the earlier edge model).
Given the intended
use of the Arlo Go as a remote camera, this might not be the most efficient solution, but at a time when companies seem hell - bent on
forcing users into more expensive
cloud plans, it's still nice to have.