Sentences with phrase «forced ocean climate»

Since 2009, CORE - I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE - II have become the standard method to evaluate global ocean / sea - ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability.

Not exact matches

It was and remains the original North Coast ocean - exposure area, allowing for high acidity along with the growth restraints from the climate and soil type to force lots of flavor in the grapes.

The authors emphasize «the LIG record reveals that strong climate forcing is not required to yield major impacts on the ocean and ice caps.»

But this phenomenon, called «upwelling» has a very variable intensity due to the variability of the currents in the Pacific Basin, to which other ocean and climate forcing mechanisms are added.

By combining this data with Ridgwell's global climate model, the team deduced the amount of carbon added to the ocean and atmosphere and concluded that volcanic activity during the opening of the North Atlantic was the dominant force behind the PETM.

As climate change raises ocean temperatures, mussels may be forced to cooler waters.

This suggests that natural cycles — such as the succession of El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean — forced these climate anomalies.

The new findings of successful multi-year drought / fire predictions are based on a series of computer modeling experiments, using the state - of - the - art earth system model, the most detailed data on current ocean temperature and salinity conditions, and the climate responses to natural and human - linked radiative forcing.

Climatologists have suggested that the winds, known as the Greenland tip jet, could be a key force in driving the world's climate and the global ocean circulation by pushing cold, dense water to the ocean floor and triggering the thermohaline circulation.

Another massive undertaking, the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX), meanwhile, was specifically designed to see if climate forcing on the part of aerosol particles could be directly measured.

The researchers» forecasts are based on the AWI's BRIOS (Bremerhaven Regional Ice - Ocean Simulations) model, a coupled ice - ocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in ExOcean Simulations) model, a coupled ice - ocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in Exocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter.

The researchers used a climate model, a so - called coupled ocean - atmosphere model, which they forced with the observed wind data of the last decades.

The past climates that forced these changes in ice volume and sea level were reconstructed mainly from temperature - sensitive measurements in ocean cores from around the globe, and from ice cores.

g (acceleration due to gravity) G (gravitational constant) G star G1.9 +0.3 gabbro Gabor, Dennis (1900 — 1979) Gabriel's Horn Gacrux (Gamma Crucis) gadolinium Gagarin, Yuri Alexeyevich (1934 — 1968) Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center GAIA Gaia Hypothesis galactic anticenter galactic bulge galactic center Galactic Club galactic coordinates galactic disk galactic empire galactic equator galactic habitable zone galactic halo galactic magnetic field galactic noise galactic plane galactic rotation galactose Galatea GALAXIES galaxy galaxy cannibalism galaxy classification galaxy formation galaxy interaction galaxy merger Galaxy, The Galaxy satellite series Gale Crater Galen (c. AD 129 — c. 216) galena GALEX (Galaxy Evolution Explorer) Galilean satellites Galilean telescope Galileo (Galilei, Galileo)(1564 — 1642) Galileo (spacecraft) Galileo Europa Mission (GEM) Galileo satellite navigation system gall gall bladder Galle, Johann Gottfried (1812 — 1910) gallic acid gallium gallon gallstone Galois, Évariste (1811 — 1832) Galois theory Galton, Francis (1822 — 1911) Galvani, Luigi (1737 — 1798) galvanizing galvanometer game game theory GAMES AND PUZZLES gamete gametophyte Gamma (Soviet orbiting telescope) Gamma Cassiopeiae Gamma Cassiopeiae star gamma function gamma globulin gamma rays Gamma Velorum gamma - ray burst gamma - ray satellites Gamow, George (1904 — 1968) ganglion gangrene Ganswindt, Hermann (1856 — 1934) Ganymede «garbage theory», of the origin of life Gardner, Martin (1914 — 2010) Garneau, Marc (1949 ---RRB- garnet Garnet Star (Mu Cephei) Garnet Star Nebula (IC 1396) garnierite Garriott, Owen K. (1930 ---RRB- Garuda gas gas chromatography gas constant gas giant gas laws gas - bounded nebula gaseous nebula gaseous propellant gaseous - propellant rocket engine gasoline Gaspra (minor planet 951) Gassendi, Pierre (1592 — 1655) gastric juice gastrin gastrocnemius gastroenteritis gastrointestinal tract gastropod gastrulation Gatewood, George D. (1940 ---RRB- Gauer - Henry reflex gauge boson gauge theory gauss (unit) Gauss, Carl Friedrich (1777 — 1855) Gaussian distribution Gay - Lussac, Joseph Louis (1778 — 1850) GCOM (Global Change Observing Mission) Geber (c. 720 — 815) gegenschein Geiger, Hans Wilhelm (1882 — 1945) Geiger - Müller counter Giessler tube gel gelatin Gelfond's theorem Gell - Mann, Murray (1929 ---RRB- GEM «gemination,» of martian canals Geminga Gemini (constellation) Gemini Observatory Gemini Project Gemini - Titan II gemstone gene gene expression gene mapping gene pool gene therapy gene transfer General Catalogue of Variable Stars (GCVS) general precession general theory of relativity generation ship generator Genesis (inflatable orbiting module) Genesis (sample return probe) genetic code genetic counseling genetic disorder genetic drift genetic engineering genetic marker genetic material genetic pool genetic recombination genetics GENETICS AND HEREDITY Geneva Extrasolar Planet Search Program genome genome, interstellar transmission of genotype gentian violet genus geoboard geode geodesic geodesy geodesy satellites geodetic precession Geographos (minor planet 1620) geography GEOGRAPHY Geo - IK geologic time geology GEOLOGY AND PLANETARY SCIENCE geomagnetic field geomagnetic storm geometric mean geometric sequence geometry GEOMETRY geometry puzzles geophysics GEOS (Geodetic Earth Orbiting Satellite) Geosat geostationary orbit geosynchronous orbit geosynchronous / geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) geosyncline Geotail (satellite) geotropism germ germ cells Germain, Sophie (1776 — 1831) German Rocket Society germanium germination Gesner, Konrad von (1516 — 1565) gestation Get Off the Earth puzzle Gettier problem geyser g - force GFO (Geosat Follow - On) GFZ - 1 (GeoForschungsZentrum) ghost crater Ghost Head Nebula (NGC 2080) ghost image Ghost of Jupiter (NGC 3242) Giacconi, Riccardo (1931 ---RRB- Giacobini - Zinner, Comet (Comet 21P /) Giaever, Ivar (1929 ---RRB- giant branch Giant Magellan Telescope giant molecular cloud giant planet giant star Giant's Causeway Giauque, William Francis (1895 — 1982) gibberellins Gibbs, Josiah Willard (1839 — 1903) Gibbs free energy Gibson, Edward G. (1936 ---RRB- Gilbert, William (1544 — 1603) gilbert (unit) Gilbreath's conjecture gilding gill gill (unit) Gilruth, Robert R. (1913 — 2000) gilsonite gimbal Ginga ginkgo Giotto (ESA Halley probe) GIRD (Gruppa Isutcheniya Reaktivnovo Dvisheniya) girder glacial drift glacial groove glacier gland Glaser, Donald Arthur (1926 — 2013) Glashow, Sheldon (1932 ---RRB- glass GLAST (Gamma - ray Large Area Space Telescope) Glauber, Johann Rudolf (1607 — 1670) glaucoma glauconite Glenn, John Herschel, Jr. (1921 ---RRB- Glenn Research Center Glennan, T (homas) Keith (1905 — 1995) glenoid cavity glia glial cell glider Gliese 229B Gliese 581 Gliese 67 (HD 10307, HIP 7918) Gliese 710 (HD 168442, HIP 89825) Gliese 86 Gliese 876 Gliese Catalogue glioma glissette glitch Global Astrometric Interferometer for Astrophysics (GAIA) Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Globalstar globe Globigerina globular cluster globular proteins globule globulin globus pallidus GLOMR (Global Low Orbiting Message Relay) GLONASS (Global Navigation Satellite System) glossopharyngeal nerve Gloster E. 28/39 glottis glow - worm glucagon glucocorticoid glucose glucoside gluon Glushko, Valentin Petrovitch (1908 — 1989) glutamic acid glutamine gluten gluteus maximus glycerol glycine glycogen glycol glycolysis glycoprotein glycosidic bond glycosuria glyoxysome GMS (Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite) GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) Gnathostomata gneiss Go Go, No - go goblet cell GOCE (Gravity field and steady - state Ocean Circulation Explorer) God Goddard, Robert Hutchings (1882 — 1945) Goddard Institute for Space Studies Goddard Space Flight Center Gödel, Kurt (1906 — 1978) Gödel universe Godwin, Francis (1562 — 1633) GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) goethite goiter gold Gold, Thomas (1920 — 2004) Goldbach conjecture golden ratio (phi) Goldin, Daniel Saul (1940 ---RRB- gold - leaf electroscope Goldstone Tracking Facility Golgi, Camillo (1844 — 1926) Golgi apparatus Golomb, Solomon W. (1932 — 2016) golygon GOMS (Geostationary Operational Meteorological Satellite) gonad gonadotrophin - releasing hormone gonadotrophins Gondwanaland Gonets goniatite goniometer gonorrhea Goodricke, John (1764 — 1786) googol Gordian Knot Gordon, Richard Francis, Jr. (1929 — 2017) Gore, John Ellard (1845 — 1910) gorge gorilla Gorizont Gott loop Goudsmit, Samuel Abraham (1902 — 1978) Gould, Benjamin Apthorp (1824 — 1896) Gould, Stephen Jay (1941 — 2002) Gould Belt gout governor GPS (Global Positioning System) Graaf, Regnier de (1641 — 1673) Graafian follicle GRAB graben GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) graceful graph gradient Graham, Ronald (1935 ---RRB- Graham, Thomas (1805 — 1869) Graham's law of diffusion Graham's number GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) grain (cereal) grain (unit) gram gram - atom Gramme, Zénobe Théophile (1826 — 1901) gramophone Gram's stain Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) Granat Grand Tour grand unified theory (GUT) Grandfather Paradox Granit, Ragnar Arthur (1900 — 1991) granite granulation granule granulocyte graph graph theory graphene graphite GRAPHS AND GRAPH THEORY graptolite grass grassland gravel graveyard orbit gravimeter gravimetric analysis Gravitational Biology Facility gravitational collapse gravitational constant (G) gravitational instability gravitational lens gravitational life gravitational lock gravitational microlensing GRAVITATIONAL PHYSICS gravitational slingshot effect gravitational waves graviton gravity gravity gradient gravity gradient stabilization Gravity Probe A Gravity Probe B gravity - assist gray (Gy) gray goo gray matter grazing - incidence telescope Great Annihilator Great Attractor great circle Great Comets Great Hercules Cluster (M13, NGC 6205) Great Monad Great Observatories Great Red Spot Great Rift (in Milky Way) Great Rift Valley Great Square of Pegasus Great Wall greater omentum greatest elongation Green, George (1793 — 1841) Green, Nathaniel E. Green, Thomas Hill (1836 — 1882) green algae Green Bank Green Bank conference (1961) Green Bank Telescope green flash greenhouse effect greenhouse gases Green's theorem Greg, Percy (1836 — 1889) Gregorian calendar Grelling's paradox Griffith, George (1857 — 1906) Griffith Observatory Grignard, François Auguste Victor (1871 — 1935) Grignard reagent grike Grimaldi, Francesco Maria (1618 — 1663) Grissom, Virgil (1926 — 1967) grit gritstone Groom Lake Groombridge 34 Groombridge Catalogue gross ground, electrical ground state ground - track group group theory GROUPS AND GROUP THEORY growing season growth growth hormone growth hormone - releasing hormone growth plate Grudge, Project Gruithuisen, Franz von Paula (1774 — 1852) Grus (constellation) Grus Quartet (NGC 7552, NGC 7582, NGC 7590, and NGC 7599) GSLV (Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle) g - suit G - type asteroid Guericke, Otto von (1602 — 1686) guanine Guiana Space Centre guidance, inertial Guide Star Catalog (GSC) guided missile guided missiles, postwar development Guillaume, Charles Édouard (1861 — 1938) Gulf Stream (ocean current) Gulfstream (jet plane) Gullstrand, Allvar (1862 — 1930) gum Gum Nebula gun metal gunpowder Gurwin Gusev Crater gut Gutenberg, Johann (c. 1400 — 1468) Guy, Richard Kenneth (1916 ---RRB- guyot Guzman Prize gymnosperm gynecology gynoecium gypsum gyrocompass gyrofrequency gyropilot gyroscope gyrostabilizer Gyulbudagian's Nebula (HOcean Circulation Explorer) God Goddard, Robert Hutchings (1882 — 1945) Goddard Institute for Space Studies Goddard Space Flight Center Gödel, Kurt (1906 — 1978) Gödel universe Godwin, Francis (1562 — 1633) GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) goethite goiter gold Gold, Thomas (1920 — 2004) Goldbach conjecture golden ratio (phi) Goldin, Daniel Saul (1940 ---RRB- gold - leaf electroscope Goldstone Tracking Facility Golgi, Camillo (1844 — 1926) Golgi apparatus Golomb, Solomon W. (1932 — 2016) golygon GOMS (Geostationary Operational Meteorological Satellite) gonad gonadotrophin - releasing hormone gonadotrophins Gondwanaland Gonets goniatite goniometer gonorrhea Goodricke, John (1764 — 1786) googol Gordian Knot Gordon, Richard Francis, Jr. (1929 — 2017) Gore, John Ellard (1845 — 1910) gorge gorilla Gorizont Gott loop Goudsmit, Samuel Abraham (1902 — 1978) Gould, Benjamin Apthorp (1824 — 1896) Gould, Stephen Jay (1941 — 2002) Gould Belt gout governor GPS (Global Positioning System) Graaf, Regnier de (1641 — 1673) Graafian follicle GRAB graben GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) graceful graph gradient Graham, Ronald (1935 ---RRB- Graham, Thomas (1805 — 1869) Graham's law of diffusion Graham's number GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) grain (cereal) grain (unit) gram gram - atom Gramme, Zénobe Théophile (1826 — 1901) gramophone Gram's stain Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) Granat Grand Tour grand unified theory (GUT) Grandfather Paradox Granit, Ragnar Arthur (1900 — 1991) granite granulation granule granulocyte graph graph theory graphene graphite GRAPHS AND GRAPH THEORY graptolite grass grassland gravel graveyard orbit gravimeter gravimetric analysis Gravitational Biology Facility gravitational collapse gravitational constant (G) gravitational instability gravitational lens gravitational life gravitational lock gravitational microlensing GRAVITATIONAL PHYSICS gravitational slingshot effect gravitational waves graviton gravity gravity gradient gravity gradient stabilization Gravity Probe A Gravity Probe B gravity - assist gray (Gy) gray goo gray matter grazing - incidence telescope Great Annihilator Great Attractor great circle Great Comets Great Hercules Cluster (M13, NGC 6205) Great Monad Great Observatories Great Red Spot Great Rift (in Milky Way) Great Rift Valley Great Square of Pegasus Great Wall greater omentum greatest elongation Green, George (1793 — 1841) Green, Nathaniel E. Green, Thomas Hill (1836 — 1882) green algae Green Bank Green Bank conference (1961) Green Bank Telescope green flash greenhouse effect greenhouse gases Green's theorem Greg, Percy (1836 — 1889) Gregorian calendar Grelling's paradox Griffith, George (1857 — 1906) Griffith Observatory Grignard, François Auguste Victor (1871 — 1935) Grignard reagent grike Grimaldi, Francesco Maria (1618 — 1663) Grissom, Virgil (1926 — 1967) grit gritstone Groom Lake Groombridge 34 Groombridge Catalogue gross ground, electrical ground state ground - track group group theory GROUPS AND GROUP THEORY growing season growth growth hormone growth hormone - releasing hormone growth plate Grudge, Project Gruithuisen, Franz von Paula (1774 — 1852) Grus (constellation) Grus Quartet (NGC 7552, NGC 7582, NGC 7590, and NGC 7599) GSLV (Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle) g - suit G - type asteroid Guericke, Otto von (1602 — 1686) guanine Guiana Space Centre guidance, inertial Guide Star Catalog (GSC) guided missile guided missiles, postwar development Guillaume, Charles Édouard (1861 — 1938) Gulf Stream (ocean current) Gulfstream (jet plane) Gullstrand, Allvar (1862 — 1930) gum Gum Nebula gun metal gunpowder Gurwin Gusev Crater gut Gutenberg, Johann (c. 1400 — 1468) Guy, Richard Kenneth (1916 ---RRB- guyot Guzman Prize gymnosperm gynecology gynoecium gypsum gyrocompass gyrofrequency gyropilot gyroscope gyrostabilizer Gyulbudagian's Nebula (Hocean current) Gulfstream (jet plane) Gullstrand, Allvar (1862 — 1930) gum Gum Nebula gun metal gunpowder Gurwin Gusev Crater gut Gutenberg, Johann (c. 1400 — 1468) Guy, Richard Kenneth (1916 ---RRB- guyot Guzman Prize gymnosperm gynecology gynoecium gypsum gyrocompass gyrofrequency gyropilot gyroscope gyrostabilizer Gyulbudagian's Nebula (HH215)

Indeed, its a very important paper in the history of climate, linking observed cycles in ocean sediment cores to orbital forcing periodicities.

Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellclimate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, MiscellClimate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.

First, it probably needs to be made clearer that generally speaking radiative forcing and climate sensitivity are useful constructs that apply to a subsystem of the climate and are valid only for restricted timescales — the atmosphere and upper ocean on multi-decadal periods.

Similarly, if as a number of recent studies suggest, anthropogenic climate forcing leads to a greater tendency for the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)[or related «Arctic Oscillation» (AO)-RSB- pattern, we would expect increased baroclinicity and storminess over a substantial region of the mid-latitude North Atlantic ocean and neighboring western Europe..

This was accomplished using a stochastic climate model based on the concept that ocean temperature variability is a slow dynamical system, a red noise signal, generated by integrating stochastic atmospheric forcing, or white noise71.

The recurring wave pattern of intense rain and thunderstorms, followed by a dry phase as the force moves across the cooler Pacific Ocean occurs every 30 - 60 days, giving this atmospheric wave its unique stamp on the climate.

Hall, A., and R.J. Stouffer, 2001: An abrupt climate event in a coupled ocean - atmosphere simulation without external forcing.

At GISS, he is helping to develop the GISS ocean and coupled GCMs to improve the representation of the present day climate while investigating their response to external forcing.

The importance of heterogeneous human climate forcings does not diminish the important of added greenhouse gases, but does indicate that more attention needs to be given to these other human climate forcings, including how they can modify atmospheric and ocean circulation features.

The 1976 — 1977 climate shift occurred along with a phase shift of the PDO, and a concurrent change in the ocean (Section 3.6.3) that appears to contradict the Lindzen and Giannitsis (2002) assumption that the change was initiated by tropospheric forcing.

They got 10 pages in Science, which is a lot, but in it they cover radiation balance, 1D and 3D modelling, climate sensitivity, the main feedbacks (water vapour, lapse rate, clouds, ice - and vegetation albedo); solar and volcanic forcing; the uncertainties of aerosol forcings; and ocean heat uptake.

Gregory et al. (2002) used observed interior - ocean temperature changes, surface temperature changes measured since 1860, and estimates of anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing of the climate system to estimate its climate sensitivity.

Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.

Forest et al. (2006) demonstrate that the inclusion of natural forcing affects the estimated PDF of climate sensitivity since net negative natural forcing in the second half of the 20th century favours higher sensitivities than earlier results that disregarded natural forcing (Forest et al., 2002; see Figure 9.20), particularly if the same ocean warming estimates were used.

«[B] y making use of 21 CMIP5 coupled climate models, we study the contribution of external forcing to the Pacific Ocean regional sea level variability over 1993 — 2013, and show that according to climate models, externally forced and thereby the anthropogenic sea level fingerprint on regional sea level trends in the tropical Pacific is still too small to be observable by satellite altimetry.»

Some temperature reduction is possible if the climate forcing is reduced rapidly, before heat has penetrated into the deeper ocean.

The ocean's role in the transient response of climate to abrupt greenhouse gas forcing.

A water based system doesn't achieve much, as the oceans participate in weather and climate, but aren't the primary driving forces, which are global atmospheric circulation patterns and greenhouse gases etc..

Kolbert brilliantly and engagingly combines science and travel writing to fully reveal how our use of fossil fuels is rapidly changing the atmosphere, the oceans, and the climate, potentially forcing millions of species into extinction and putting our own future at risk.

The work, which first premiered at the 2015 Venice Biennale and will have its first New York presentation at the New Museum, focuses on the ocean as an environmental, cultural, and historical force, connecting literature and poetry, the history of slavery, and contemporary issues of migration and climate change.

However, effec - tive communication with the public of the urgency to stem human - caused climate change is hampered by the inertia of the climate system, especially the ocean and the ice sheets, which respond rather slowly to climate forcings, thus allow - ing future consequences to build up before broad public con - cern awakens.

Natural climate variability of the Arctic atmosphere, the impact of Greenland and PBL stability changes K. Dethloff *, A. Rinke *, W. Dorn *, D. Handorf *, J. H. Christensen ** * AWI Potsdam, ** DMI Copenhagen Unforced and forced long - term model integrations from 500 to 1000 years with global coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea - ice models have been analysed in order to find out whether the different models are able to simulate the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) similar to the real atmosphere.

Indeed, its a very important paper in the history of climate, linking observed cycles in ocean sediment cores to orbital forcing periodicities.

Whereas PPM Data is immediate and accurately measurable and comparable to the «real world» be it back to human emissions, be it sources, be it sinks, be it ocean acidity, be it climate forcing long term and more than anything the dynamics of PPM is easily explained and communicated as a Definitive Yardstick or success or failure in meeting Goals (imho).

Since OHC uptake efficiency associated with surface warming is low compared with the rate of radiative restoring (increase in energy loss to space as specified by the climate feedback parameter), an important internal contribution must lead to a loss rather than a gain of ocean heat; thus the observation of OHC increase requires a dominant role for external forcing.

The community [studying] seasonal and longer climate variability was (and still is) dominated by the ocean community and especially a decade ago [the El Niño Southern Oscillation] ENSO was the only boundary forcing that anyone was paying attention to.

Ice - sheet responses to decadal - scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long - term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.»

(«On decadal to century timescales, climate dynamics — the complex interplay of multiple external forcings (rapid and slow), the spectrum of atmospheric and ocean circulation oscillations, interactions with biosphere — determines variations in climate.»)

Because high latitudes are thought to be most sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing owing to, for example, ice - albedo feedbacks, we focus on the tropical Pacific Ocean to derive a minimum value for long - term climate sensitivity.

Some people might be willing to pay any price at all, in order to prevent sea level rise, ocean acidification, ice caps melting, agriculture and wildlife and ecosystems being disrupted, people forced to migrate due to climate, etc, etc..

Your attempt to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity from the 20th C won't work because a) the forcings are not that well known (so the error in your estimate is large), b) the climate is not in equilibrium — you need to account for the uptake of heat in the ocean at least.

Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.

It is not, in principle, impossible for coupled ocean - atmosphere climate to be chaotic, but all evidence so far points to the likelihood that the strength of the response to GHG radiative forcing changes overwhelms the effect of any chaos there may be in the system.

In these experiments the climate sensitivity was 2.7 deg C for a doubling of CO2, the net aerosol forcing from 1940 to 2000 was around -0.7 W / m2 (55 % of the total forcing, -1.27, from 1850 to 2000), and the ocean uptake of heat was well - matched to recent observations.

«Climate forcing results in an imbalance in the TOA radiation budget that has direct implications for global climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth's radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture.Climate forcing results in an imbalance in the TOA radiation budget that has direct implications for global climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth's radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture.climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth's radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture.»

Given those assumptions, looking at the forcing over a long - enough multi-decadal period and seeing the temperature response gives an estimate of the transient climate response (TCR) and, additionally if an estimate of the ocean heat content change is incorporated (which is a measure of the unrealised radiative imbalance), the ECS can be estimated too.