Sentences with phrase «forcing changes in cycling»

Second off, streetcars are a waste of money, space, and time, not to mention forcing changes in cycling routes, how you have to use the lane, etc...

Not exact matches

But the succession is complicated by the changing demographics of the district, which forced Rangel and his allies to fight bare - knuckled campaigns against Espaillat in the last two election cycles.

External forces like abrupt changes in solar output or volcanism could have started and stopped the cycle, says Trouet, who hopes to pinpoint the trigger at a climatology workshop in May.

Taking factors such as sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases and natural aerosol particles into consideration, the researchers determined that changes in the concentration of black carbon could be the primary driving force behind the observed alterations to the hydrological cycle in the region.

Re 92 and 105: First I just want to reitterate more generally what 105 said — Milankovitch cycles have had climate signals, in ice ages or otherwise, — well probably ever since the Moon formed, although the signal from times past will not always reach us, but I've read of evidence of Milankovitch precession cycle forcing of monsoons in lakes in Pangea (PS over geologic time the periods of some of the Milankovitch cycles have changed as the Moon recedes from the Earth due to tides).

Suppose also that — DESPITE THIS STABILIZING MECHANISM some as - yet unknown ocean circulation cycle operates that is the sole cause of the Holocene centennial scale fluctuations, and that this cycle has reversed and is operating today, yielding a temperature change that happens to mimic what models give in response to radiative forcing changes.

The 11 years solar cycle acts an important driving force for variations in the space weather, ultimately giving rise to climatic changes.

Predicted changes in orbital forcing suggest that the next glacial period would begin at least 50,000 years from now, even in absence of human - made global warming (see Milankovitch cycles).

While Milankovitch forcing predicts that cyclic changes in the Earth's orbital parameters can be expressed in the glaciation record, additional explanations are necessary to explain which cycles are observed to be most important in the timing of glacial — interglacial periods.

The major mid-Holocene forcing relative to the present was due to orbital perturbations that led to large changes in the seasonal cycle of insolation.

Also, Tomb Raider has day and night, but it doesn't cycle automatically, you have to travel to different locations in order to force the day to change.

Ranging from sculpture that inhabits physical space in unusual ways in order to better understand and demonstrate force, motion, energy and matter, to works depicting the patterns of the earth and its cycles of change, the artists in this exhibit explore natural phenomena in ways both literal and conceptual.

While the local, seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (of the order 30 W / m2), the net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero in the global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like albedo or greenhouse gas anomalies) to force global - mean temperature change.

... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively small increases in CO2 concentration and global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the magnitude of zonally averaged surface temperature change at high latitudes exceeds the globally averaged temperature change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.

It is my understanding that the previous ice ages have ended in the past by a forcing from changes in tilt of the earth (i.e. Milankovitch cycles).

Given that the Milankovitch TSI forcing is less than + - 0.1 %, while nonetheless driving ice - age cycles, the current anthro forcing of > 0.85 W / m ^ 2 (> +0.2 %) can hardly be called «a small change in forcing».

Although the primary driver of glacial — interglacial cycles lies in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of incoming solar energy driven by changes in the geometry of the Earth's orbit around the Sun («orbital forcing»), reconstructions and simulations together show that the full magnitude of glacial — interglacial temperature and ice volume changes can not be explained without accounting for changes in atmospheric CO2 content and the associated climate feedbacks.

However, in the global mean, these changes sum to zero (or very close to it), and so the global mean sensitivity to global mean forcings is huge (or even undefined) and not very useful to understanding the eventual ice sheet growth or carbon cycle feedbacks.

Moreover, there is no mechanism that would force CO2 to change on its own (in preferred cycles) without any previous alterations to the climate.

The non linear nature of forcing is related more to positive feedbacks and changes that are still being studied, such as cyclic changes in moisture content and regional dispersion, the methane cycles in the ocean or the potential of methane clathrate / hydrate release, and of course the race to feed more people on a planet which will inevitably add more nitrous oxide to the atmosphere and create more dead zones in the oceans, droughts, floods, fires, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria....

Well, OK, but I would point out that CO2 in the past appears to act as an amplifier for orbitally forced climate change, so if anything, we might expect the carbon cycle in the future to amplify our own climate forcing, rather than counteract it.

Climate modelers are very thankful for the existence of the seasonal cycle, for providing such a beautiful data set with which we can test a models quantitative response to a well - defined change in external forcing.

The main changes in radiative forcing from the precessional cycle are in the latitudinal and seasonal distribution, not in the global mean, which is why the nature of the response can be expected to be different from doubling CO2.

Suppose also that — DESPITE THIS STABILIZING MECHANISM some as - yet unknown ocean circulation cycle operates that is the sole cause of the Holocene centennial scale fluctuations, and that this cycle has reversed and is operating today, yielding a temperature change that happens to mimic what models give in response to radiative forcing changes.

It's the same series of an initial forcing (change in insolation due to Milankovitch orbital cycles) being amplified by reinforcing feedbacks (change in albedo, change in temperature and partial pressure regulating both CO2 and H2O), but in reverse from an exit from a glacial period.

Starting from an old equilbrium, a change in radiative forcing results in a radiative imbalance, which results in energy accumulation or depletion, which causes a temperature response that approahes equilibrium when the remaining imbalance approaches zero — thus the equilibrium climatic response, in the global - time average (for a time period long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability), causes an opposite change in radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they occur) equal in magnitude to the sum of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings» caused by non-Planck feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent changes in optical properties, + etc.).)

A more reasonable natural variability / forcing argument might go something like this: 1) There is natural variability of climate due to solar activity 2) Climate is changing now 3) Forcing can result in climate change, but the response of the C cycle to forcing is poorly understood 4) Forcing is happening now 5) Forcing and / or solar activity could be to blame for current warming trends Is this unreasforcing argument might go something like this: 1) There is natural variability of climate due to solar activity 2) Climate is changing now 3) Forcing can result in climate change, but the response of the C cycle to forcing is poorly understood 4) Forcing is happening now 5) Forcing and / or solar activity could be to blame for current warming trends Is this unreasForcing can result in climate change, but the response of the C cycle to forcing is poorly understood 4) Forcing is happening now 5) Forcing and / or solar activity could be to blame for current warming trends Is this unreasforcing is poorly understood 4) Forcing is happening now 5) Forcing and / or solar activity could be to blame for current warming trends Is this unreasForcing is happening now 5) Forcing and / or solar activity could be to blame for current warming trends Is this unreasForcing and / or solar activity could be to blame for current warming trends Is this unreasonable?

Instead, to constrain the Charney sensitivity from the ice age cycle you need to specifically extract out those long term changes (in ice sheets, vegetation, sea level etc.) and then estimate the total radiative forcing including these changes as forcing, not responses.

For a 60 - year cycle, if the forcing appeared very quickly, effectively as a step change, this sudden appearance would give the climate all of the 30 - year half - cycle of BNO (R) to react, 30 - years to create the 0.31 °C change in temperature.

That the only part of Milankovitch cycle forcing that matters is the changes in NH Summer insolation, ignoring the entire season or the SH and in the process inflating the effect of MS around 20 fold.

By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the global mean surface temperature, the land - ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over land and the mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.

There is a couple tenths of a W / m2 of long - term solar forcing (warming) that is inferred the observed changes in the sunspot cycle (which we include in our climate simulations, including the UV variations).

Correct, when you look at the global temperature changes in 11 - year solar cycles, the sensitivity to the forcing change is almost 1 C per W / m2, and those are just transient.

It looks more like the orbital force change has more impact that solar cycle changes, especially in the North Atlantic region.

I think you dismiss the effect of quantitative things like forcing changes and imbalance, and even if I told you the much weaker 11 - year solar forcing cycle is detectable in the temperature record, you would dismiss that on the same principle despite the observations showing it.

The forcing change is already ten times what you get in a solar 11 - year cycle.

Personally I think that recent research (including several studies discussed in the above post, published after the IPCC AR5 cutoff date) make a strong case that internal variability (ocean cycles) are responsible for more of the slowdown in surface warming than changes in external forcings, but there's not a consensus about that yet.

The Milankovitch cycles are weak from the point of view of net solar forcing, but they affect the albedo through systematic changes in northern ice cover during the months when there is more daylight.

If let say 0.4 C of the 0.5 C of the 20th century warming was due to the high solar cycle, then we can expect a -0.8 C change (0.4 C high forcing is removed and -0.4 C due to the interrupt in solar cycle 24.)

The lighter shaded areas depict the change in this uncertainty range, if carbon cycle feedbacks are assumed to be lower or higher than in the medium setting... Global mean temperature results from the SCM for anthropogenic and natural forcing compare favourably with 20th - century observations (black line) as shown in the lower left panel (Folland et al., 2001; Jones et al., 2001; Jones and Moberg, 2003).

Variations in all the proxy series are periodic and reflect astronomically forced climate changes (i.e., Milankovitch cycles).

Once the sign of the solar effect on the stratosphere is reversed it becomes possible to propose a system of climate change arising simply from the latitudinal shifting of the air circulation systems in response to competing forces from variable oceanic and solar cycles.

It was mostly if not entirely a result of a change from a warm to a cold PDO cycle in 1939 (with a later assist from the AMO), and I get my negative sensitivities because the forcing estimates don't allow for the heating and cooling impacts of ocean cycles.

So in the Milankovitch cycle we have ZERO change in global average forcing and several degrees of temperature change.

My more important point is that the adjustments change little in terms of global trends, and in particular, don't throw additional light on putative cycles or other oscillations based on solar variation or other forcings.

CAS = Commission for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP = Climate Metrics and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS = Working Group on Data Assimilation and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land - Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF = Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate TC = Tropical cyclone WCRP = World Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Climate Extremes • Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice Change and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM = Working Group on Coupled Modelling WGSIP = Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year of Polar Prediction

In the case of the 100 kyr ice age cycles, that forcing is high northern latitude summer insolation driven by predictable changes in Earth's orbital and rotational parameters — aka, Milankovitch theory — which has the intial effect of melting glaciers, thereby reducing albedo at those latitudeIn the case of the 100 kyr ice age cycles, that forcing is high northern latitude summer insolation driven by predictable changes in Earth's orbital and rotational parameters — aka, Milankovitch theory — which has the intial effect of melting glaciers, thereby reducing albedo at those latitudein Earth's orbital and rotational parameters — aka, Milankovitch theory — which has the intial effect of melting glaciers, thereby reducing albedo at those latitudes.

Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

Yes in fact we know that the paradigm of only the globally average TOA radiative forcing mattering must be erroneous as it fails to explain how Milankovitch forcing (changes in insolation) causes the glacial interglacial cycles, when it is a forcing which is tiny on a global scale (even hemisphericaly completely out of phase!)

The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can change or reverse in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Ccycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch CyclesCycles.