Their argument is that the mix of types of
forcing during the historical period underestimate ECS in their model, corresponding to a composite efficacy of less than one.
If that were the case in the real climate system, then estimates of ECS from observed changes in GMST and total
forcing during the historical period would underestimate true ECS, which relates to pure CO2 forcing.
(See Miller et al 2014 p. 449; this study has lots of good information about
forcing during the historical period in GISS ModelE2.
Not exact matches
This means the global mean temperature (GMST) response to the aggregate
forcing applying
during the
historical period (actually, 1906 — 2005) was identical, in the model, to the response to the same
forcing from CO2 only.
But CO2 was only 60 % of the positive
forcing during this
period, so we're actually talking about 0.5 ºC per 1500GtCO2 for the
historical record.
... it seems clear that no massive ocean temperature anomaly [i.e., cooling] did in fact develop
during the
historical period [due to Land Use
forcing].
Marvel et al could withdraw their paper and submit a new one, using more satisfactory methodology and providing more detail, after performing a set of simulations that showed how the GISS model responded to each type of
forcing as the climate state evolved
during the
historical period.