Sentences with phrase «forcing estimates»

By the way, what is the basis for claiming that the negative aerosol forcing estimate has been reduced?

The magnitude of external forcings estimated using these same model may drop by that much or more.

The new forcing estimate comes about from a newer understanding of the role of aerosols as well as the additional radiative forcing from greenhouse gas emissions since 2005.

Current forcing estimates done by our own governments leading scientists are showing 1.9 W / m2.

Depending on how the prices are structured, the task force estimated that up to $ 1.5 billion could become available annually.

So, I would expect that the writing team would be interested to include an updated instrumental estimate based on the newest forcing estimates.

It is therefore unlikely that their total BC forcing estimate would be altered much through the introduction of improved emissions inventories.

I'm not sure whether the new black carbon forcing estimates would, in theory at least, make much difference - the BC effect is already in the observed temperatures.

The second shock occurred from 2000 - 2009, when the high Canadian dollar forced an estimated 20,000 manufacturing firms to shut down, with a loss of about 500,000 jobs.

A further consideration in assessing these results is the extent to which realistic forcing estimates were used, and whether forcing uncertainty was included.

Since the AR5 aerosol forcing best estimate for the 1850s was -0.19 W / m ², the adjustment required to bring the aerosol forcing estimates for the models into line with the AR5 best estimate is ~ 0.49 W / m ², not ~ 0.3 W / m ².

REA16 estimate the TCR of each CMIP5 model by comparing its global warming with forcing estimated in the same way as in Otto et al., using model - specific data where available and multimodel mean forcing otherwise.

We recently discussed this subject during our dialogue with Dr. Pielke Sr., and showed that using the CO2 radiative forcing estimate of Skeie et al. (2011) and the Padilla et al. (2011) 90 % confidence range for the transient climate sensitivity parameter, we can estimate a CO2 contribution of 0.64 to 1.28 °C, with a best estimate of 0.79 °C warming of average global surface temperature over the past ~ 150 years.

By IAN MUNDELLIn 1940 the US Air Force estimated that less than 10 per cent of the world was mapped in enough detail to make the charts its pilots needed.

In a recent study, the Clean Air Task Force estimated that finding and fixing leaks could reduce methane emissions by around 1.7 million metric tons per year, cutting leaks by at least 60 to 80 percent.

Bellouin goes on to make corrections for cloudy skies and changes in aerosols since pre-industrial times, giving a final direct forcing estimate of -0.3 W / m ^ 2, leading to a total figure of -0.7 W / m ^ 2, not -0.9 W / m ^ 2.

The CO2 minimum forcing estimate of 1.08 W / m2 by 2050 assumes flat emission growth (i.e. no further increases in CO2 emissions), and thus is the absolute minimum (and something I would be willing to bet against!).

With continued growth of emissions, forcing estimates rise to up to 1.54 W / m2 but may be somewhat less.

In addition, a wide range of forcing schemes designed to span the approximate range of uncertainties associated with anthropogenic climate forcing estimates were generated and implemented in order to assess what differences in effects exist between the «best guess» counter-anthropogenic geoengineering forcing scheme and other plausible schemes.

Figure 9.1 a is from the solar forcing estimated over this century from solar (a few tenths of W / m2).

Note, that there is another satellite based indirect forcing estimate (Penner et al..

It appears he doesn't understand that the underlying forcing estimates used in Otto et al. are not simple ERF values.

There is a minor technical detail which has to do with the «efficacies» of various forcings — our current forcing estimates are weighted by the efficacies calculated in the GCM and reported here.

However, with the EBM we were able to test the sensitivity of the results to a wide range of past published forcing estimates.

I spent quite a bit of time earlier this year trying to decode Hansen forcing estimates by GHG type (which is important) versus observed resulting in the following graphic — on the right is observed plus present A1B forecast.

At the end of 2013 — even before the Iraq crisis forced an estimated 1.8 million Iraqis from their homes — around 51.2 million people worldwide had been forcibly displaced due to «persecution, conflict, generalised violence or human rights violations», according to the UN News Centre.

In 1945 Henry L. Stimson, secretary of war, recommended to President Truman the use of nuclear weapons against Japan to hasten the end of the war and save the Allied forces an estimated 1 million casualties in an assault upon mainland Japan.

Now, they say that scientists have reason to trust the resistive force theory to give accurate force estimates through sand, and even pastier materials like mud and gels.

The IPCC emphasizes forcing estimates relative to 1750 since most of the important anthropogenic impacts are thought to have been small at that time (biomass burning may be an exception, but appears to have a relatively small net forcing).

However, Section 2.9 updates the Boucher and Haywood analysis for current radiative forcing estimates since 1750 and shows that it is extemely likely that the combined anthropogenic RF is both positive and substantial (best estimate: +1.6 W m — 2).

The post was written by Gavin Schmidt and describes why the earth system sensitivity (ESS) can not be estimated by regressing temperature and radiative forcing estimates across ice - age cycles.

Paul — Zero probability of 0.5 - 1.0 deg C does not exclude negative feedbacks, since the no - feedback forcing estimate yields a value of 1.2 C in most estimations.