Accordingly,
the forcing estimation method relies upon a model exhibiting a fairly linear climate response, and hence having a climate feedback parameter (and an effective climate sensitivity) that does not vary with time (in addition to having a temperature response that is proportional to forcing).
Not exact matches
The sensitivity, shown in Supplementary Table 6, of TCR
estimation using the difference
method to choice of base period when using a 2000 — 09 final period is explicable primarily by poor matching of volcanic
forcing when base periods other than 1861 — 80 are used.
However, Supplementary Figure 4 shows that the chosen difference
method provides stable
estimation of model TCRs provided that the final decade has, like the 1861 — 80 base period, low volcanic
forcing.
As discussed in some detail in LC15, sensitivity
estimation using an energy budget difference
method is sensitive to variations between the base and final periods in volcanic
forcing, due to its very low apparent efficacy, so periods with matching volcanism should be used.
Moreover, as the iRF
estimation method involves the climate state — including water vapour and clouds — being fixed in 1850, it does not appear that stratospheric water vapour
forcing would be included in Historical iRF (nor in GHG iRF).