Sentences with phrase «forcing scenario used»

Climate projections are distinguished from a href = «c.html #climate - predictions» > climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

Not exact matches

Should Parkin's nightmare scenario pan out, the blame would lie not so much with Carney but with Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve, who is bent on using the full force of monetary policy to boost the U.S. economy, consequences be damned.

In the first scenario drivers were given five laps to take Sergio Perez's Force India to the best possible result around Monza, with the final score being based on things like finishing time, assists used and how cleanly you drive.

The scenario contemplated then is very different from the situation that has emerged, and the language used, at least by the UK, does not hint at a use of force on the basis of national interest.

In the artificial scenario of a polling question you can link those two things and force people to consider them as one, you can use a form of tax people answering the question aren't so familiar with.

The Buffalo police's main shortcoming was its lack of scenario - based training, in which officers are placed in high - stress situations and have to make decisions about when and whether to use force.

Buffalo police do not undergo that kind of scenario - based training, where officers are put in life - like, adrenaline - inducing policing situations to practice making use of force decisions.

A study released last month in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres used three different models to run the same SSCE scenario in which sea - salt engineering was used in the low - latitude oceans to keep top - of - atmosphere radiative forcing at the 2020 level for 50 years and was then abruptly turned off for 20 years.

Once the driving force behind change at PIG was identified, future predictions could be made using different ocean condition scenarios, and the likelihood of significant retreat can be identified.

Note that the old GISS model had a climate sensitivity that was a little higher (4.2 ºC for a doubling of CO2) than the best estimate (~ 3ºC) and as stated in previous years, the actual forcings that occurred are not the same as those used in the different scenarios.

We noted in 2007, that Scenario B was running a little high compared with the forcings growth (by about 10 %) using estimated forcings up to 2003 (Scenario A was significantly higher, and Scenario C was lower), and we see no need to amend that conclusion now.

Methods: To understand the effects of economic forces from climate policy on terrestrial carbon and land use changes, the researchers used the MiniCAM, an integrated assessment model developed by the PNNL team over the last two decades, to compare different scenarios.

That empirical aerosol forcing assessment for the past decade is consistent with the climate forcings scenario (Fig. 8) that we use for the past century in the present and prior studies [64], [190].

In Figure 4, Huber and Knutti break down the anthropogenic and natural forcings into their individual components to quantify the amount of warming caused by each since the 1850s (Figure 4b), 1950s (4c), and projected from 2000 to 2050 using the IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario as business - as - usual (4d).

In that scenario, Amazon would be the one that behaved badly, by using its dominance in the e-book reader market to force publishers to cut their profits.

From basic rabble to archers, knights and even dragons (these can actually be controlled by the player and can be used to dispatch tactically placed volleys of flaming death upon your foes), your army can become quite large and multi-faceted, which is just as well really because at the end of a number of days the apocalypse kicks off and you have to lay the final smackdown on the forces of evil and unpleasantness in order to win the scenario.

One could use the responses of all three scenarios relative to their specific forcings to make an estimate of what the model would have given using the exact observed forcings, but just using scenario C — which has diverged significantly from the actual forcings — is not going to be useful.

You can also create your own scenarios «A», «B», «C» etc in a text file and use your own forcings as part of the simulated projections to see how the climate responds.

> The model simulations use observed forcings up until 2000 (or 2003 in a couple of cases) and > use a business - as - usual scenario subsequently (A1B).

The test of the model is whether, given the observed changes in forcing, it produces a skillful prediction using the scenario most closely related to the observations — which is B (once you acknowledge the slight overestimate in the forcings).

Regression analyses are performed as in Otto (2015), using natural and anthropogenic forcing timeseries (historical and the RCP8.5 scenario) with a regression constructed using data from 1850 - 2016 (for HadCRUT4), and from 1880 - 2016 (for GISTEMP).

First off, there is no way that Scenario A was more realistic — the proof is in figure 1 above which gives the real forcings used.

Using the business - as - usual scenario for GHG radiative forcing (RCP8.5) and their novel estimate of Earth's warm - phase climate sensitivity the authors find that the resulting warming during the 21st century overlaps with the upper range of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations.

This graph shows the forcings (CO2, and other stuff) used by Hansen in the model runs for each of his three future scenarios, plotted alongside the actual climate forcings that were observed.

MKL propose to adopt what appears to be a plausible but low - end scenario of future radiative forcing, whereas Houghton et al. (2001) indicates that even stronger radiative forcing scenarios than we use in KT04 are also plausible.

We will then proceed to describe the underlying socioeconomic assumptions that shape RCP4.5 and its associated reference scenario and discuss the characteristics of RCP4.5, highlighting the global energy, economic, land use, and land cover systems, as well as the mechanisms employed to limit radiative forcing to 4.5 W m − 2 and contrast RCP4.5 to its reference scenario.

They are used to investigate the processes responsible for maintaining the general circulation and its natural and forced variability (Chapter 8), to assess the role of various forcing factors in observed climate change (Chapter 9) and to provide projections of the response of the system to scenarios of future external forcing (Chapter 10).

Here are some references that may be of some use for looking at the individual forcings in the scenarios:

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long - term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short - lived species, and land - use - land - cover which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m − 2 (approximately 650 ppm CO2 - equivalent) in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.

a, Global mean temperature anomalies produced using an EBM forced by historical changes in well - mixed greenhouse gases and future increases based on the A1B scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios.

We used the multi-model mean warming associated with the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario (out to 2050) as a representation of the quickest rate of forced warming that could conceivably be occurring currently.

«Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long - term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short - lived species, and land - use - land - cover which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Watts per meter squared (W m - 2, approximately 650 ppm CO2 - equivalent) in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value.»

This project used a compiled set of emission and forcing scenarios called the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) to drive a group of the most complex climate available, so - called Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models.

As scenario analysis is mooted as a useful tool to understand the risks of the energy transition, it is clear that using a scenario with no changes in technology and policy (the CPS) or the new policy scenario (NPS)(AKA the «no new policies scenario»), which includes what is already known about and set to come into force does not help companies or their shareholders understand risk and opportunity.

So I asked Mr. Knappenberger to test the models» agreement with long - term observations using a new «third» scenario in which internal variability once again «enhances» the «externally forced trend» and global warming resumes at the 1984 - 1998 rate of 0.265 ºC / decade.

Clearly a «climate projection» IS a «climate prediction, using the IPCC definitions, when the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario actually has occurred.

Inverse modeling using Kaya's identity could identify the number of different pathways among the various combinations of possible input variables that could result in a specific radiative forcing scenario (say + / - 10 %).

The figure can be used if you know the radiative forcing, and is handy in light of e.g. the RCP scenarios which are given in terms of expected radiative forcing.

This is in particular relevant for scenario elements that are only indirectly coupled to the radiative forcing targets such as land use / land cover and air pollutant emissions.

Since there are some differences in the climate changes simulated by various models even if the same forcing scenario is used, the models are compared to assess the uncertainties in the responses.

For example, scenarios that rely on the results from GCM experiments alone may be able to represent some of the uncertainties that relate to the modelling of the climate response to a given radiative forcing, but might not embrace uncertainties caused by the modelling of atmospheric composition for a given emissions scenario, or those related to future land - use change.

We use all available models that conducted simulations for the period 2016 — 2065 under the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario.

In Figure 4, Huber and Knutti break down the anthropogenic and natural forcings into their individual components to quantify the amount of warming caused by each since the 1850s (Figure 4b), 1950s (4c), and projected from 2000 to 2050 using the IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario as business - as - usual (4d).

Using radiation modeling we estimated how strong the climate forcing would be for each scenario, and then ran general circulation models to see how that forcing would change the climate.

We make use of a 40 - member ensemble of climate change simulations under historical and RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenarios for the period 1920 — 2100 conducted with the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1; Hurrell et al. 2013).

The main purpose of the first phase (development of the RCPs) is to provide information on possible development trajectories for the main forcing agents of climate change, consistent with current scenario literature allowing subsequent analysis by both Climate models (CMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).1 Climate modelers will use the time series of future concentrations and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and land - use change from the four RCPs in order to conduct new climate model experiments and produce new climate scenarios as part of the parallel phase.

Using all 19 models, the average state in the last decade of the twenty - first century is projected under the SRES A1B forcing scenario to be conditions currently considered severe drought (PDSI < — 3) over much of the continental United States and extreme drought (PDSI < — 4) over much of Mexico.

The words «concentration pathway» are meant to emphasize that these RCPs are not the final new, fully integrated scenarios (i.e. they are not a complete package of socio - economic, emission and climate projections), but instead are internally consistent sets of projections of the components of radiative forcing that are used in subsequent phases.

Also, we use several extreme forcing scenarios.