Sentences with phrase «forcings over the historical period»

«[1] Projections of 21st century warming may be derived by using regression - based methods to scale a model's projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.

Gillett et al. derive the TCR by using a regression - based method to scale the model's projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.

They use a regression - based method to scale the model - projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.

The model's GMST response to the (negative) LU iRF forcing over the historical period, relative to what it would have been if the same forcing had been caused by changing the CO2 concentration (its transient efficacy), was almost four.

This new NASA paper builds upon those previous studies by better quantifying the efficiencies of different forcings over the historical period and the effect this has on energy budget approach climate sensitivity estimates.

Although Marvel et al. do not mention the very low efficacy of solar forcing in their simulations, this appears to have more effect on ERF efficacy for the sum of forcings over the historical period than does low volcanic efficacy.

Not exact matches

The recent paper by Kate Marvel and others (including me) in Nature Climate Change looks at the different forcings and their climate responses over the historical period in more detail than any previous modeling study.

Here we apply such a method using near surface air temperature observations over the 1851 — 2010 period, historical simulations of the response to changing greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings, and simulations of future climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathways from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2).

The two call the relationship «robust»: there might be all sorts of reasons why over a long historical period Arctic sea ice would vary from year to year, but as greenhouse gas levels rise, CO2 becomes the dominant force that makes the ice retreat.

Each simulation was subject to an identical scenario of historical «radiative forcing» (effectively an identical scenario of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase over the period) but each was started from a very slightly different atmospheric state — that is, with an almost infinitesimal difference in the initial value of global temperature.

In any event, Marvel use the single forcing runs to appraise how TCR and ECS estimated from observations over the historical period compare with actual, CO2 forced, TCR and ECS.

Marvel et al. reached this conclusion from analysing the response of the GISS - E2 - R climate model in simulations over the historical period (1850 — 2005) when driven by six individual forcings, and also by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical» shistorical period (1850 — 2005) when driven by six individual forcings, and also by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical» sHistorical» simulation.

They do this by simulations over the historical period (1850 — 2005) driven by individual forcings, and by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical» shistorical period (1850 — 2005) driven by individual forcings, and by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical» sHistorical» simulation.

Over the 1850 - 2005 period of the GISS - E2 - R historical simulations, the total reduction in downwelling solar forcing from eruptions is given as — 59 watt - years.

And they are: the standard deviation of the mean global temperature over the last 50 years of the historical period for the runs making up the simulation ensemble for each single forcing is 0.02 C or less.

Hansen 2005 concluded that, at least for climate forcing agents over the historical period, Fs was a good measure of the effective forcing (the product of a forcing, however defined, and the efficacy taken relative thereto), notwithstanding that some forcings had different spatial distributions from others.