The current
forecast calls for Ophelia to strengthen gradually
during the week as it drifts toward the east and become a
hurricane on Friday, which would make it the 10th
hurricane of the 2017
season.
The figure above compares the average track
forecast errors in the Atlantic Ocean basin
during the past six
hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National Hurricane Center during thi
hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National
Hurricane Center during thi
Hurricane Center
during this period.
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004
hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent
seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had
forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years,
during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.
About Blog I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing
hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season and winter storm forecasts during th
hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic
Hurricane Season and winter storm forecasts during th
Hurricane Season and winter storm
forecasts during the winter.