Not exact matches
Oil supply is the biggest
factor weighing on oil prices, and Iran's
return to the market appears to be one of the most difficult supply sources to
forecast.
This is basically a beta timing strategy: you are
forecasting a positive
return on the market
factor, and using the long SPY position to capture it.
All of these
factors are reflected in the Association's latest
forecasts, which expect construction output to fall by1.1 % in 2011 and 3.6 % in 2012, with no
return to growth until 2014.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the history of Hollywood production mirrors the history of venture capital in the United States, as each new film presents an idiosyncratic set of risk
factors, and each new production or distribution technology distorts
return forecasts for a new generation of film speculators.
Such statements reflect the current views of Barnes & Noble with respect to future events, the outcome of which is subject to certain risks, including, among others, the general economic environment and consumer spending patterns, decreased consumer demand for Barnes & Noble's products, low growth or declining sales and net income due to various
factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction of the device business, including possible reduction in sales of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that returns from consumers or channels of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the rate of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher interest rates, the performance of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews of strategic alternatives and the potential separation of the Company's businesses, the risk that the transactions with Microsoft and Pearson do not achieve the expected benefits for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion contemplated by the relationship with Microsoft, including that it is not successful or is delayed, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Microsoft and Pearson commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing of, and the material weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits of such efforts and associated risks and other factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with t
factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction of the device business, including possible reduction in sales of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational
forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that
returns from consumers or channels of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the rate of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher interest rates, the performance of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews of strategic alternatives and the potential separation of the Company's businesses, the risk that the transactions with Microsoft and Pearson do not achieve the expected benefits for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion contemplated by the relationship with Microsoft, including that it is not successful or is delayed, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Microsoft and Pearson commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing of, and the material weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits of such efforts and associated risks and other
factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with t
factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those
factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with t
factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk
Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with t
Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with the SEC.
Such statements reflect the current views of Barnes & Noble with respect to future events, the outcome of which is subject to certain risks, including, among others, the effect of the proposed separation of NOOK Media, the general economic environment and consumer spending patterns, decreased consumer demand for Barnes & Noble's products, low growth or declining sales and net income due to various
factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction of the device business, including possible reduction in sales of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that returns from consumers or channels of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the rate of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher interest rates, the performance of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, risks associated with the commercial agreement with Samsung, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews of strategic alternatives and the potential separation of the Company's businesses (including with respect to the timing of the completion thereof), the risk that the transactions with Pearson and Samsung do not achieve the expected benefits for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion previously undertaken, including any risks associated with a reduction of international operations following termination of the Microsoft commercial agreement, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Pearson and Samsung commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, the risks associated with the termination of Microsoft commercial agreement, including potential customer losses, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing of, and the material weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits of such efforts and associated risks and other factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended May 3, 2014, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with t
factors, possible disruptions in Barnes & Noble's computer systems, telephone systems or supply chain, possible risks associated with data privacy, information security and intellectual property, possible work stoppages or increases in labor costs, possible increases in shipping rates or interruptions in shipping service, effects of competition, possible risks that inventory in channels of distribution may be larger than able to be sold, possible risks associated with changes in the strategic direction of the device business, including possible reduction in sales of content, accessories and other merchandise and other adverse financial impacts, possible risk that component parts will be rendered obsolete or otherwise not be able to be effectively utilized in devices to be sold, possible risk that financial and operational
forecasts and projections are not achieved, possible risk that
returns from consumers or channels of distribution may be greater than estimated, the risk that digital sales growth is less than expectations and the risk that it does not exceed the rate of investment spend, higher - than - anticipated store closing or relocation costs, higher interest rates, the performance of Barnes & Noble's online, digital and other initiatives, the success of Barnes & Noble's strategic investments, unanticipated increases in merchandise, component or occupancy costs, unanticipated adverse litigation results or effects, product and component shortages, risks associated with the commercial agreement with Samsung, the potential adverse impact on the Company's businesses resulting from the Company's prior reviews of strategic alternatives and the potential separation of the Company's businesses (including with respect to the timing of the completion thereof), the risk that the transactions with Pearson and Samsung do not achieve the expected benefits for the parties or impose costs on the Company in excess of what the Company anticipates, including the risk that NOOK Media's applications are not commercially successful or that the expected distribution of those applications is not achieved, risks associated with the international expansion previously undertaken, including any risks associated with a reduction of international operations following termination of the Microsoft commercial agreement, the risk that NOOK Media is not able to perform its obligations under the Pearson and Samsung commercial agreements and the consequences thereof, the risks associated with the termination of Microsoft commercial agreement, including potential customer losses, risks associated with the restatement contained in, the delayed filing of, and the material weakness in internal controls described in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended April 27, 2013, risks associated with the SEC investigation disclosed in the quarterly report on Form 10 - Q for the fiscal quarter ended October 26, 2013, risks associated with the ongoing efforts to rationalize the NOOK business and the expected costs and benefits of such efforts and associated risks and other
factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended May 3, 2014, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with t
factors which may be outside of Barnes & Noble's control, including those
factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended May 3, 2014, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with t
factors discussed in detail in Item 1A, «Risk
Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended May 3, 2014, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with t
Factors,» in Barnes & Noble's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended May 3, 2014, and in Barnes & Noble's other filings made hereafter from time to time with the SEC.
The point of building a portfolio is to diversify away these
factor bets, which we can not control or
forecast, and focus our
returns on the performance of individual companies.
We observe that P / B - based valuation does a better job of
forecasting the
return of the value blend
factor, whereas the aggregate valuation measure does a better job of
forecasting the
return of the value strategy constructed based on B / P.
Five - Year
Forecasts We summarize the valuation ratios, historical
returns, historical
returns net of valuation changes, and expected
returns along with estimation errors for the most popular
factors and strategies in Table 2.
This model uses the most recent five - year performance of a
factor or strategy to
forecast its future
return.
I'm not going to argue about
forecasts for inflation or stock market
returns, because those
factors are very small compared to SAVINGS RATE, which is the whole point of this article.
Of course, these are
forecasts based on the benchmark
returns without any costs
factored in.
Forecasting what may most likely happen with these
factors over time (given the assumed fluctuations in the markets - which you can control every year by using different rates of
return on every investment for every year - including negative rates of
return, and being able to change your income goal every year) is much more important to model, than a one - dimensional probability number, to an actual investor's life.
This
forecast depends on the
factor exposures,
factor expected
returns (influenced by value), fees, and manager's ability to select securities within each style group.
market model, capital market theory, capital asset pricing model, market
returns, two
factor model, market
returns, diversification, market
forecasts, risk