In the hierarchy of difficulty in terms of predicting the outcomes of certain markets, you would be hard - pressed to figure out a harder segment to
forecast than currencies.
Not exact matches
Sales growth and operating profit growth reported in Danish kroner are now expected to be 6 and 9 percentage points lower
than in local
currencies, respectively, compared with a previous
forecast of 7 and 10 percentage points lower.
A Chinese
currency devaluation is less of a concern
than a Chinese slowdown, with real GDP
forecast to be down 0.2 percentage points.
While acknowledging that my
currency forecasting prowess means I'm driving a desk rather
than tanning on a beach, the gyrations do seem to offer some valuable lessons.
The bank's chief
currency strategist Richard Grace made the
forecast changes to reflect a slightly quicker -
than - expected slowing in the global economy over the first quarter.
Australia's central bank signaled today it may resume cutting interest rates as soon as next month if weaker -
than -
forecast growth slows inflation, sending the local
currency and bond yields lower.
Conversely, the Iveco segment performed better
than we anticipated, as revenue declined less
than our
forecasts (and gained 9 % in constant
currency) while margins expanded.
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This is for no better reason
than people making market timing
forecasts about where that
currency may be headed short - term, based on random daily news and economic statistics.
This prediction is even more bullish
than our own Ethereum price
forecast, which shows the
currency reaching $ 1,000 in 2018.