Others, such as a new microsatellite system aiming to improve measurements of hurricane intensity and a highly anticipated new computer simulation that
forecasts hurricane paths and intensities, are still in the calibration phase.
Not exact matches
If you're currently pregnant and nearing your due date, you may be understandably concerned about the upcoming
forecast for
Hurricane Irma's
path towards North Carolina.
The so - called «Spaghetti model» from the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather
Forecasts shows a northerly
path moving up East Coast for
Hurricane Irma.
The National
Hurricane Center in Miami has generated a
forecast track for
Hurricane Joaquin that closely follows the
path Superstorm Sandy took, raising a New York City strike higher on the list of possibilities.
The 2017
hurricane season has highlighted the critical need to communicate a storm's impact
path and intensity accurately, but new research from the University of Utah shows significant misunderstandings of the two most commonly used storm
forecast visualization methods.
This type of risk assessment is inaccurate because
forecast scientists choose how many lines they want to show — meaning that ensemble
forecasts rarely show all the possible
paths the
hurricane could take.
But in the big picture,
hurricane models adeptly
forecasted Irma's ultimate
path to the Florida Keys nearly a week before it arrived there, says Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany in New York.
Powerful
hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria are also providing a testing ground for new tools that scientists hope will save lives by improving
forecasts in various ways, from narrowing a storm's future
path to capturing swift changes in the intensity of storm winds.
Irene's
forecast path gets more uncertain later on, so the
hurricane may move out to sea or move further inland.
And scientists may be better able to
forecast a storm's effects by comparing its projected
path and strength with those of
hurricanes that previously struck the coast.
Anyone planning a trip to the Bahamas should keep an eye on
forecasts for
Hurricane José, as its
path could potentially veer toward the Caribbean archipelago.
If you're currently pregnant and nearing your due date, you may be understandably concerned about the upcoming
forecast for
Hurricane Irma's
path towards North Carolina.
Hurricane forecast models (the same ones that were used to predict Katrina's
path) indicate a tendency for more intense (but not overall more frequent)
hurricanes when they are run for climate change scenarios (Fig. 1).
Meanwhile, high - resolution
hurricane models can
forecast the growth and
path of tropical storms, but would require much greater computer power or eons of time to simulate the large samples of storms required for climate - change studies.
We have a decent grasp of
forecasting tropical storm and
hurricane paths a few days in advance.