Climate models are being subjected to more comprehensive tests, including, for example, evaluations of
forecasts on time scales from days to a year.
Not exact matches
Oct 30 (Reuters)- Hurricane Sandy appears to have easily caused more losses than last year's Hurricane Irene, but final totals will be hard to come by for some
time because of the
scale of the disaster, catastrophe
forecasting companies said
on Tuesday.
Predictions of weather and climate for months, seasons and decades ahead lie between normal weather
forecasts and climate projections for the coming century — concerning both what influences the climate
on these
time -
scales, and the methods required to make such predictions.
This approach complements traditional
forecast simulations, which are very accurate for a short period of
time but lose their reliability
on timescales that are required to understand the fate of the spill
on the
scale from days to weeks.»
«We're good at placing these
forecasts and probabilistic terms
on a geological
time scale, but we're not good at putting it at
scales that matter to you and me.»
The interactions
on intra-seasonal
time scales represent a potential source of predictability for weather
forecasting.
A few climate models have been tested for (and shown) capability in initial value predictions,
on time scales from weather
forecasting (a few days) to seasonal
forecasting (annual).
Pressing the frontiers of climate science and related research is vital, but it's wishful thinking to expect further science to substantially narrow uncertainties
on time scales that matter when it comes to regional or short - term climate
forecasting, the range of possible warming from a big buildup of carbon dioxide, the impact of greenhouse forcing
on rare extremes and the like.
If this
forecast is correct, it will take a long
time or big technological innovations
on the production side to induce large -
scale fossil - fuel production from high - cost areas such as the Arctic Ocean, regardless of sea - ice conditions.
So at best this is useful for seasonal
forecasts, unless someone is
forecasting sea ice extent
on longer
time scales.
From the perspective of business, weather
forecasts on the sub-seasonal
time scale provides an opportunity because it lies between the well - established application of daily weather
forecasts and the increasing use of seasonal
forecasts.
2) Soil moisture: memory in soil moisture can last several weeks which can influence the atmosphere through changes in evaporation and surface energy budget and can affect the
forecast of air temperature and precipitation in certain areas during certain
times of the year
on intraseasonal
time scales;
Many numerical weather prediction centers now use coupled ocean - atmosphere models to produce ensemble
forecasts on the subseasonal
time scale.
However,
forecasting on the subseasonal
time scale (two weeks to two months) has received much less attention, in part because this
time horizon has been considered a «predictability desert».
We need to focus more
on improving weather
forecasting on longer
time scales than the current 7 - 8 days so that vulnerable communities have more
time to prepare for adversity.
The climate models got scores far worse than a random walk, indicating a complete failure to provide valid
forecast information at the regional level, even
on long
time scales.
But
forecasts of an increase in amplitude or even a phase reversal of the AO can lead to improved temperature
forecasts on the weekly and monthly
time scales.
Now if we say area B has a great effect
on our
forecast area A, and see which line with up with that using a
time proportional
scale like a few weeks and pick those ones, then haven't we done about the same thing?
Modelling
on this
time scale involves much the same techniques as in the longer - term climate
forecasting.
What is more, she is trying to claim the models are wrong period by using data
on a decadal
time frame (full well knowing that they struggle
on such
time scales), but at the same
time is informing CFAN clients that they can provide
forecasts on a decadal
time scale.
PROFESSIONAL SUMMARY * Experiencing machine learning real word project of MS Azure Subscription Automation (auto
Scaling) for sequence to sequence
time series
forecasting, classifications and decision
on MS Azure machine learning platform and storage blobs.