Most climate models available to scientists like Emanuel are too coarse in resolution to simulate
the formation of hurricanes.
Anyone here know of an explanation for
the formation of hurricanes such as I give in Chapter 4A for eg 2017 & 2010 North Atlantic Hurricanes?
It is my understanding that
the formation of hurricanes is largely dependent on the presence of a baseline minimum (absolute) temperature.
So many factors contribute to
the formation of a hurricane.
Not exact matches
Temperature gradients make the atmosphere more unstable, and «a more unstable atmosphere is more conducive for deep thunderstorm
formation, which is the building blocks
of hurricanes,» Klotzbach says.
«NASA sees
formation of unusual North Atlantic
Hurricane Alex.» ScienceDaily.
Because a
hurricane cools surface water, it discourages the
formation of later storms in its wake, providing a form
of negative feedback that limits the
hurricane merging effect.
Such polygonal
formations have been observed in the center
of major
hurricanes on Earth, says Barbosa Aguiar, though they quickly dissipate.
El Niño conditions can also curb the
formation of powerful storms, and with no El Niño in the picture in 2017 — and with warmer - than - average ocean waters — last year's Atlantic
hurricane season was unusually active.
A confluence
of factors, including abundant sinking air and dry air, and possibly dust flowing out
of North Africa's Sahara desert, kept a lid on
hurricane formation in 2013, according to many cyclone experts.
For years, perhaps decades, Gray has been ascribing all sorts
of climate changes and
hurricane cycles to fluctuations in the Thermohaline Circulation (THC), an overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean associated with
formation of deep water in the North Atlantic.
This question stimulates a lively, thoughtful classroom discussion that is followed up by students in small groups researching the
formation, development, and effects
of hurricanes to make public service announcements (PSAs) that encourage residents to evacuate a community before a storm hits.
Possibly, this forming El Nino also had an impact on
formation of tropical storm systems in the Western Atlantic this past
hurricane season.
Is it the difference in temperature between the ocean surface and the atmosphere, or the absolute temperature
of the ocean surface that encourages
hurricane formation?
What I mean is that for a given amount
of wind shear what heat content must be present above the thermocline to overcome the shear and permit
hurricane formation?
My recently deceased father - in - law, Katsuyuki «Vic» Ooyama (scroll down to page 5 for a short bio), was a meteorological scientist and developer
of numerical computer models (some versions
of which are still being used today) regarding the
formation, development and tracking
of hurricanes.
As I summarize in the book: «global warming, which ought to intensify the average
hurricane, could also change the regions
of storm
formation or the numbers
of storms that form in the first place.
The perceptible (and perhaps measurable) impact
of global warming on
hurricanes in today's climate is arguably a pittance (or noise) compared to the reorganization and modulation
of hurricane formation locations and preferred tracks / intensification corridors dominated by ENSO (and other natural climate factors).
Hurricanes are likely to become fewer in number, but fiercer in nature according to two recent studies assessing the impact
of climate change on
hurricane formation.
Tropical Atlantic (10 ° N — 20 ° N) sea surface temperature annual anomalies (°C) in the region
of Atlantic
hurricane formation, relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean.
A key factor in the
formation of a tropical cyclone - a low - pressure region that can turn into a
hurricane - is sea - surface temperature, which has to be above about 27 degrees Celsius.
Earlier today, I posted an article about how — and even if — global warming is currently affecting the
formation, development, and strength
of tropical cyclones (
hurricanes and typhoons).
Dates indicate initial date
of hurricane formation.
The US CLIVAR
Hurricane Working Group was formed in January
of 2011 to coordinate efforts to produce a set
of model experiments designed to improve understanding
of the variability
of tropical cyclone
formation in climate models.
According to
hurricane historian Jay Barnes
of Pine Knoll Shores, North Carolina, ocean heat is the key ingredient for
hurricane formation.
Hurricane Humberto in (2007) spun up out
of nowhere, and we completely missed its
formation.
The Lesser Antilles intersect the «main development region» for Atlantic
hurricane formation, making storm data there «our best source for historical variability
of tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries,» the researchers explain.
The idea is that in a chaotic system, a small change like a butterfly flapping its wings in some distant part
of the globe can influence a large - scale effect, such as the
formation and trajectory
of a storm like the recent
Hurricane Sandy.
Would another consequence
of the AMOC collapse be the
formation of an Atlantic tropical warm pool comparable with that in the western Pacific that is the source
of the world's highest
hurricane frequency?
So, the physics should condense to a very simple relationship, if you put the intensive factor f * -LRB-(570-80/490) into equation 4 the fraction becomes dimensionless, where f is Fractional part
of ice / water in system, f = 1 assuming all water is converted to ice in the ascending wall, it would place a break to maximum wind speed but also slow down the
hurricane rate
of formation.
So if it becomes a permanent El Nino situation, you will still have the chaotic weather effects
of when the «
hurricane formation destroying» wind shear misses the formating
hurricane due to the shifting jet stream... and Voila...
Re # 205 My initial concerns were about the path functions for
hurricanes and not for the theoretical mechanisms
of hurricane formation nor for the predicted relations
of hurricane intensity with rising sst's etc..
The darkest orange areas indicate water temperatures
of 26.5 °C (80 °F) and higher — the temperatures required for the
formation and growth
of hurricanes.
a) sea surface temperatures; b) precipitation; c) heavy lines: frequency
of formation of tropical cyclones; light lines: frequency
of formation of tropical cyclones that reach
hurricane strength.
A rise in the world's sea surface temperatures was the primary contributor to the
formation of stronger
hurricanes since 1970, a new study reports.
In our «rotating radiative convective equilibrium» simulations, a realistic model is simplified by removing land surfaces and spherical geometry, and by assuming that the underlying ocean temperatures are spatially uniform, providing a relatively simple system in which to study the
formation and mature structure
of hurricanes.
Warm ocean temperatures are one
of the key factors that strengthen
hurricane development when overall conditions are conducive for their
formation and growth.
If weather events like
hurricanes are a function
of heat gradients, not
of heat content, then it follows that raising Tmin more than Tmax, via atmospheric CO2, will cause their
formation rates and their magnitude to fall
For example, when there are large changes in wind speed at different altitudes (also known as «vertical wind shear») above an area
of the ocean, those conditions can interfere with
hurricane formation.