So when I say, for example, that I estimate a probability of about 80 % of
fresh credit difficulties accompanied by a market plunge over the coming year, that figure is based on various combinations of historical evidence, and what has (and has not) happened afterward, and how often.
Presently, we are also at the peak of concern about the potential for
fresh credit difficulties to emerge, as we move into the first portion of the Alt - A / Option ARM reset schedule.