While an aggressive exposure in precious metals most likely will require a reversal of long - term interest rate trends and some amount of
fresh economic weakness, our focus is not so much on the next Market Climate we may observe next but on the Climate we observe at present.
Still, my impression is that
fresh economic weakness could prove to be a tipping point, and that both investors and the public should understand that they are likely to pay terribly for the current abundance of apparently free lunches.
As I noted last week, a strong decline in Treasury yields would actually be a bad omen here, because it would signal a rush to quality in the face of rising default risks and possibly
fresh economic weakness.
Not exact matches
Following the British vote to exit the European Union, global
economic concerns, coupled with
weakness in the Japanese economy, drove interest rates in Britain, Europe and Japan to
fresh lows, prompting a burst of yield - seeking speculation that has driven the S&P 500 Index a few percent above its May 2015 peak.
We would infer a much higher probability of an
economic contraction if current
economic data was coupled with
fresh equity market
weakness.
In response to
fresh measures of
economic weakness last week, coupled with an elevated ratio of gold prices to gold equity prices and negative real interest rates, the Fund boosted its holdings of precious metals shares to about 10 % of assets.