The Fed is trying to rescue the economy
from asset deflation, much like 1990 - 1992, but will run into the buzzsaw of price inflation, and tighten a la 1994.
Not exact matches
In January the Bank of Japan, under pressure
from Abe to end years of
deflation, doubled its inflation target to 2 percent and made an open - ended pledge to buy
assets from next year.
Last month, the BOJ adopted a 2 percent inflation target and pledged to carry out an open - ended
asset purchase program
from next year, bowing to pressure
from Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to adopt an aggressive monetary policy to end years of
deflation.
(
From «It Never Rains in California,» 6/15)-- Stan Druckenmiller: «The Fed keeps talking about
deflation, but there is nothing more deflationary than creating a phony
asset bubble, having a bunch of investors plow into it and having it pop....
'' — Phase 4: Instability after 1929 caused by
deflation of
assets from overpriced levels and exacerbated by excessive debt levels, leading to depression of economic activity.
The question that I have at this point in the cycle is how low the Fed will get before they get scared about inflation, and flatten out policy to see which effect is larger —
deflation from overvalued housing
assets purchased with debt, or inflation of goods and services prices.
So diversify your
asset allocation into things that benefit
from inflation and
deflation — maybe you will keep something after the crisis hits.
The Permanent Portfolio concept attempts to balance the effects of inflation and
deflation, and capture returns
from the overshooting that these four
asset classes do.
Notes Starting
from January 14, 2006 Notes through April 18, 2006 covered the following topics: Great Letters,
Deflation and I - Bonds,
Asset Allocation and Long - Term Returns: An Empirical Approach, Valuation - Informed Indexing (Lucky 7) Calculators, Valuation - Informed Indexing (Lucky 7) SWR Translators, Mean Reversion Theory, Building Blocks, Two Baselines, Extracting Information, What Do I Really Think About Dividends?