In buildings, electric and natural gas efficiency annual incremental savings goals were increased
from the Baseline Scenario to an average of 2.5 % and 1.4 %, respectively across all states; heat pumps replaced fossil fuels for 13 % of residential building heating needs.
Not exact matches
The ACBC report forecasts — on a
baseline scenario — that by 2026 the services share of exports to China will have doubled,
from 9.6 per cent in 2015 to 19 per cent.
The need to import phosphorus also decreased compared to the
baseline demands by 6 % under the food waste recycling
scenario, but that is a theoretical maximum, and would only be true if the leftovers
from biogas processing could be perfectly returned to agricultural soils as fertilizer, which is currently not the practice today, Hamilton said.
The report also outlines a
baseline scenario, built around these trends, to size the business potential for passenger rail in 2020, and concludes with comments on how passenger rail operators can take advantage of the trends transforming the industry landscape, and position themselves to benefit
from opportunities that currently lie beyond their borders.
Pacala and Socolow (2004) assumed a
baseline scenario and then characterized what we need to do in terms of departure
from that
baseline.
From these data, we obtained four near - term and four long - term future climate
scenarios by adding the differential between future time periods and the
baseline time period for each model and emission
scenario to each current monthly
baseline climate map.
Using the growth rates
from the Assessed 2oC
Scenarios and a standard
baseline for 2010 demand, oil demand is estimated to decline on average
from about 95 million barrels per day in 2016 to about 78 million barrels per day in 2040.
Notice how the right panel's «
baseline climate» is flat; indicating that there was no underlying climate change in this hypothetical
scenario and all temperature variability came
from natural fluctuations9.
To develop the
Baseline Scenario, Acadia Center used the U.S. Energy Information Administration's 2016 Annual Energy Outlook as well as forecasts
from the New York and New England Independent System Operators, with changes to reflect recent policy actions by states.
If states continue on their current path as modeled in the
Baseline Scenario, they will reduce emissions only 30 %
from 1990 levels by 2030.
Three
scenarios were developed to assess the options that states have to reduce their emissions: (1) a
Baseline Scenario («business as usual») that projected emissions in 2030 without any policy changes, (2) the Primary
Scenario that will achieve the 45 % reduction
from 1990 levels, and (3) an Accelerated
Scenario that examines options for ambitious states that want to lead the region in reducing emissions.
Even so, and starting with a worldwide
baseline of 16 % undernourishment (people at risk
from hunger) in 1990 (and about 14 % today), they forecast its prevalence to decline sharply by 2080, to about 1 % to 1.5 % in all other
scenarios, and only 6 % for A2 (totally explained by the weird population assumptions in A2).
In the first
scenario, the investment could be directed to continue the transition in Europe
from gas (CCGT —
baseline) to renewables.
It would not include, for example, emissions
from China or India, which presumably continue through 2100 per the
baseline scenario.
Impacts
from the Study
Scenario are compared to a
Baseline Scenario in which wind capacity is fixed at 2013 levels.
The Central Study
Scenario results in a 16 % reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and 23 % by 2050
from the electricity sector relative to the
Baseline Scenario.
When using climate model results for
scenario construction, the
baseline also serves as the reference period
from which the modelled future change in climate is calculated.
Right there in the first sentence Teske (remember he was a lead author of this section) admits that his
scenario is based on just changing 2 assumptions
from the IEA 2009
Baseline assumption and one of those is a price on CO2
from 2010 onwards.
RCP 8.5 type temperature
scenarios will cause damages that amount to 1 - 1.2 % of GDP on an annual basis per 1C of temperature increase
from their 1980 - 2010
baseline.
In the
scenario where EPA counts new nuclear capacity in compliance calculations (CCPNUC), emissions cuts don't vary much
from the
baseline CPP case.
Lower case a-h refer to how the literature was addressed in terms of up / downscaling (a — clearly defined global impact for a specific ΔT against a specific
baseline, upscaling not necessary; b — clearly defined regional impact at a specific regional ΔT where no GCM used; c — clearly defined regional impact as a result of specific GCM
scenarios but study only used the regional ΔT; d — as c but impacts also the result of regional precipitation changes; e — as b but impacts also the result of regional precipitation change; f — regional temperature change is off - scale for upscaling with available GCM patterns to 2100, in which case upscaling is, where possible, approximated by using Figures 10.5 and 10.8
from Meehl et al., 2007; g — studies which estimate the range of possible outcomes in a given location or region considering a multi-model ensemble linked to a global temperature change.
BRDI estimated that a slight net reduction in total U.S. active cropland area would result by 2022 in most
scenarios, when compared with a
scenario developed
from USDA's so - called «
baseline» projections.
Changes in temperature and precipitation averaged over five sub-continental regions at 2100 were compared to those in a
baseline scenario based on 1 % / yr increase in CO2 concentrations
from 1990.
The historical
baseline dataset can be used in two ways in developing the 21st century
scenarios from climate model simulations: