A big problem with locking yourself into a bond for a long period of time is that you can't protect
yourself from bull and bear bond markets.
Fundamentals: There is a tug - of - war
from the bulls and bears this morning as trade war tensions cool, but risks remain due to the FBI raiding the office of President Trump's lawyer, Michael Cohen, and as we await a response to the chemical attack in Syria.
Let's look at a few arguments
from the bulls and bears to get a better understanding of the business.
Not exact matches
Talley Léger is the co-author of our new book, the second (
and revised) edition of
From Bear to
Bull with ETFs.
The first thing I heard when I got in the business, not
from my mentor, was
bulls make money,
bears make money,
and pigs get slaughtered.
Bar 3 - Opening reversal up
from moving average, possible low of day, but low probability so swing or wait, but consecutive
bear bars, better to wait for a strong
bull breakout, or more buying pressure
and second entry buy
This way, if a
bear market occurs, you have a year of cash becoming available at the maturity date so that you do not have to sell stocks,
and in a
bull market you can buy new bonds as the ones you own mature,
and you thereby benefit
from the higher interest rates that high quality bonds give versus cash or CDs.
An oft quoted line
from celebrated fund manager Sir John Templeton stated, «
Bull markets are
born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism,
and die on euphoria.»
Jones ended up raising his
bear case to $ 175 (
from $ 50)
and reiterated his $ 511 price target for his
bull case.
Quoted
from Empiritrage.com: «We propose a model that is designed to identify
bull - market
and bear - market regimes.
Moreover, the spread between
bulls and bears surged to 31.2 %
from 23.1 % in just a week
and put it in «the dangerous territory around 30 %,» Investors Intelligence commented.
The first is
from Sir John Templeton: «
Bull markets are
born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism
and die on euphoria.»
Several countries» stock markets entered corrections (i.e., declines in excess of 10 %),
and Japan's energetic
bull market quickly became a
bear market (down 20 %
from the peak).
Inflation remains very low, so unless it sharply accelerates
from here, it's unlikely to turn the ongoing expansion
and bull market into a contraction
and bear market.
The use of «
bull»
and «
bear» to describe markets comes
from the way the animals attack their opponents.
Let explore them Your bread is not dependent on returns
from markets This is an obvious edge,
bear market or
bull market, you take home a salary thereby ensuring basic necessities of you
and your family is taken care of, you don't have to sell your shares in distress to pay bills.
There is nothing that we humans can do to avoid
bear markets
and economic crises except to permit discussion of the last 36 years of peer - reviewed research in this field
and thereby prevent
bull markets
from developing in the first place.
It is
bull markets that cause
bear markets (
and the economic crises that inevitably follow
from them).
The chart below captures a fairly simple filter of instances when the market lost 5 % or more over a 2 - week period,
from a market peak in the prior 6 weeks (within 5 % of the prior 52 - week high) that was characterized by a Shiller P / E over 19, more than 50 % advisory
bulls,
and fewer than 25 % advisory
bears.
AAII Survey: This chart
from the ever excellent Sentimentrader shows
bulls vs
bears ratio
from the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors)
and the bottom line is that it has reached the bottom end of the range.
Capacity reduction in Chinese metals has caused iron ore to recover
from a 5 - year
bear market,
and driven a
bull market in the metals.
The original idea was based on work by investor
and Forbes columnist Kenneth Fisher (his original idea is discussed in this article — How to Tell a
Bull Market
from a
Bear Market Blip).
From the results, we can see that even after 38 years of consistent saving, you'll only have around $ 1,000,000 to $ 5,000,000 in your 401k in a realistic cycle of
bull and bear markets.
Perhaps, the greatest risk to the
bear case,
and greatest hope for
bulls is that the company returns to its intelligent, organic growth strategy that drive economic earnings higher
from 2005 - 2013.
Looking at global oil demand, you can see it's been unrelenting through recessions, through
bull markets,
bear markets,
and it looks like it's going to continue to go up at a fairly steady level based on latest data
from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
This will be supported by displays of intensively recorded young
bulls and females
from the Kaiuroo seedstock herd, which
bear out the breeding objective of producing highly reproductive, fast growing animals which consistently comply with the organic market.
While the painted on
Bull does look cool, it's been the same
from the beginning
and nowadays I find it rather
boring.
I remember a set of ads
from that National Breast - feeding Awareness Campaign I mentioned that showed a hugely pregnant woman in a logrolling contest
and another one riding a mechanical
bull, with the slogan: «You wouldn't take risks before your baby is
born.
A warm, gorgeous reflection of the off - the - wall, very British sense of humour that suffuses all of Paul King's work,
from The Mighty Boosh to Bunny
And The Bull, there were great visual gags (Matt King's petty thief is pursued, literally, by bear) and jokes about London life (Matt Lucas» kidnapped cabbie advising Nicole Kidman not to take the Westway at this time of night) and British life (a recorded message tells Hugh Bonneville that his phone call is «moderately» importan
And The
Bull, there were great visual gags (Matt King's petty thief is pursued, literally, by
bear)
and jokes about London life (Matt Lucas» kidnapped cabbie advising Nicole Kidman not to take the Westway at this time of night) and British life (a recorded message tells Hugh Bonneville that his phone call is «moderately» importan
and jokes about London life (Matt Lucas» kidnapped cabbie advising Nicole Kidman not to take the Westway at this time of night)
and British life (a recorded message tells Hugh Bonneville that his phone call is «moderately» importan
and British life (a recorded message tells Hugh Bonneville that his phone call is «moderately» important).
And yes, that cast includes John Cena, who moves
from Ferdinand the
Bull to Yoshi the Polar
Bear, of course.
Ferdinand, although descended
from prime fighting stock
and born on the premier
bull ranch in Spain, shows a natural disinclination toward the ring.
The letters
bore horns
and a tail because «Miura» came
from Eduardo Miura, a breeder of exceptional fighting
bulls whose ranch in Seville Ferruccio had visited in 1962.
To clear up that question... this is a Mansory Torofeo
and no longer a Lamborghini Huracan, if you look closely at this car you will notice there is no Raging
Bull crest or Lamborghini script to be found anywhere... except on the engine, which in case of a Mansory Torofeo has been taken apart completely to be fitted with bespoke Mansory parts, two
bearing - mounted turbochargers
and a custom made exhaust system... the result is 1,250 hp at 8,250 rpm (
from 610 hp)
and an electronically limited torque of 1,000 Nm.
My suggestion for using a moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments
and Avoid
Bear Markets
and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting
from Trends in
Bull or
Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.
The chart below captures a fairly simple filter of instances when the market lost 5 % or more over a 2 - week period,
from a market peak in the prior 6 weeks (within 5 % of the prior 52 - week high) that was characterized by a Shiller P / E over 19, more than 50 % advisory
bulls,
and fewer than 25 % advisory
bears.
You might expect that when the market is gradually working down
from a high level of overvaluation,
bull markets would tend to be shortened,
and bear markets would tend to be deeper.
From that standpoint, there's no chance that the 2009 low was the beginning of a secular
bull, both because valuations weren't nearly low enough (prospective 10 - year returns briefly exceeded 10 % annually, but were nowhere close to those accompanying the beginning of previous secular
bulls),
and also because at present, valuations are already about the point where one would look for a secular
bear to start.
The use of «
bull»
and «
bear» to describe markets comes
from the way the animals attack their opponents.
The
bear market returns are generally comparable for all of the screens
and indexes; however, the Graham Enterprising Investor Revised screen has really shone during the most recent
bull market which was calculated
from the end of February 2009 through March 2012.
Rather than simply buying
and holding, many active managers try to predict when securities are over - or undervalued, moving in
and out of positions to avoid
bear markets
and profit
from any subsequent
bull rally.
The Investors Intelligence data shows a significant shift
from the «correction» camp to the bullish camp among investment advisors, with 45.6 %
bulls and 24.4 %
bears.
Finally, opponents of market timing may argue that no market timer can be correct 100 % of the time,
and the lost opportunity caused by missing a
bull market or the significant losses of getting caught in a
bear market require much more than 50 % of a market timer's predictions to be correct in order to benefit
from the strategy.
Jeff, Hello
from one Nerd to another Geek... stumbled upon your video on
Bear Spread call (Vertical)
and Bull Put spreads (Verticals) on you - tube..
What I also like was the quote about how to gradually move
from 75 % equities to 25 % starting in mid career - taking money off the table when there was a
bull market
and standing pat when there was a
bear market.
Aside
from technical chart patterns such as the head
and shoulders or
bull and bear flags, these candlesticks can offer you a chance to understand the sentiment that's driving -LSB-...]
We investors have been doing well the past few years as the economy
and stock market recovered
from the Great Recession, When in a
bull market, the probability of making mistakes becomes lower than when one is in a volatile or
bear market.
For the purpose of the study below, we examined the S&P 500 price series
from Shiller's publicly available database to understand the duration
and magnitude of all
bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871.
This post is a little different
from the first three articles, because I got the data to extend the beginning of my study
from 1950 to 1928,
and I standardized my turning points using the standard
bull and bear market definitions of a 20 % rise or fall
from the last turning point.
This is a simply strategy used in various portfolio strategies made popular in books such as Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments
and Avoid
Bear Markets
and by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting
from Trends in
Bull or
Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.
Many analysts may suggest you to remain away
from small cap stocks stating that small cap stocks move up faster during
bull - run
and also fall faster during
bear run.