Not exact matches
This way, if a
bear market occurs, you have a year of cash becoming available at the maturity date so that you do not have to sell stocks,
and in a
bull market you can buy new bonds as the ones you own mature,
and you thereby benefit
from the higher interest rates that high quality bonds give versus cash or CDs.
An oft quoted line
from celebrated fund manager Sir John Templeton stated, «
Bull markets are
born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism,
and die on euphoria.»
Quoted
from Empiritrage.com: «We propose a model that is designed to identify
bull -
market and bear -
market regimes.
The first is
from Sir John Templeton: «
Bull markets are
born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism
and die on euphoria.»
Several countries» stock
markets entered corrections (i.e., declines in excess of 10 %),
and Japan's energetic
bull market quickly became a
bear market (down 20 %
from the peak).
Inflation remains very low, so unless it sharply accelerates
from here, it's unlikely to turn the ongoing expansion
and bull market into a contraction
and bear market.
The use of «
bull»
and «
bear» to describe
markets comes
from the way the animals attack their opponents.
Let explore them Your bread is not dependent on returns
from markets This is an obvious edge,
bear market or
bull market, you take home a salary thereby ensuring basic necessities of you
and your family is taken care of, you don't have to sell your shares in distress to pay bills.
There is nothing that we humans can do to avoid
bear markets and economic crises except to permit discussion of the last 36 years of peer - reviewed research in this field
and thereby prevent
bull markets from developing in the first place.
It is
bull markets that cause
bear markets (
and the economic crises that inevitably follow
from them).
The chart below captures a fairly simple filter of instances when the
market lost 5 % or more over a 2 - week period,
from a
market peak in the prior 6 weeks (within 5 % of the prior 52 - week high) that was characterized by a Shiller P / E over 19, more than 50 % advisory
bulls,
and fewer than 25 % advisory
bears.
Capacity reduction in Chinese metals has caused iron ore to recover
from a 5 - year
bear market,
and driven a
bull market in the metals.
The original idea was based on work by investor
and Forbes columnist Kenneth Fisher (his original idea is discussed in this article — How to Tell a
Bull Market from a
Bear Market Blip).
From the results, we can see that even after 38 years of consistent saving, you'll only have around $ 1,000,000 to $ 5,000,000 in your 401k in a realistic cycle of
bull and bear markets.
Looking at global oil demand, you can see it's been unrelenting through recessions, through
bull markets,
bear markets,
and it looks like it's going to continue to go up at a fairly steady level based on latest data
from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
This will be supported by displays of intensively recorded young
bulls and females
from the Kaiuroo seedstock herd, which
bear out the breeding objective of producing highly reproductive, fast growing animals which consistently comply with the organic
market.
My suggestion for using a moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments
and Avoid
Bear Markets and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting
from Trends in
Bull or
Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.
The chart below captures a fairly simple filter of instances when the
market lost 5 % or more over a 2 - week period,
from a
market peak in the prior 6 weeks (within 5 % of the prior 52 - week high) that was characterized by a Shiller P / E over 19, more than 50 % advisory
bulls,
and fewer than 25 % advisory
bears.
A big problem with locking yourself into a bond for a long period of time is that you can't protect yourself
from bull and bear bond
markets.
You might expect that when the
market is gradually working down
from a high level of overvaluation,
bull markets would tend to be shortened,
and bear markets would tend to be deeper.
The use of «
bull»
and «
bear» to describe
markets comes
from the way the animals attack their opponents.
The
bear market returns are generally comparable for all of the screens
and indexes; however, the Graham Enterprising Investor Revised screen has really shone during the most recent
bull market which was calculated
from the end of February 2009 through March 2012.
Rather than simply buying
and holding, many active managers try to predict when securities are over - or undervalued, moving in
and out of positions to avoid
bear markets and profit
from any subsequent
bull rally.
Finally, opponents of
market timing may argue that no
market timer can be correct 100 % of the time,
and the lost opportunity caused by missing a
bull market or the significant losses of getting caught in a
bear market require much more than 50 % of a
market timer's predictions to be correct in order to benefit
from the strategy.
What I also like was the quote about how to gradually move
from 75 % equities to 25 % starting in mid career - taking money off the table when there was a
bull market and standing pat when there was a
bear market.
We investors have been doing well the past few years as the economy
and stock
market recovered
from the Great Recession, When in a
bull market, the probability of making mistakes becomes lower than when one is in a volatile or
bear market.
For the purpose of the study below, we examined the S&P 500 price series
from Shiller's publicly available database to understand the duration
and magnitude of all
bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871.
This post is a little different
from the first three articles, because I got the data to extend the beginning of my study
from 1950 to 1928,
and I standardized my turning points using the standard
bull and bear market definitions of a 20 % rise or fall
from the last turning point.
This is a simply strategy used in various portfolio strategies made popular in books such as Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments
and Avoid
Bear Markets and by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting
from Trends in
Bull or
Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.
Helping investors to earn above average return consistently
from the equity
market across the
bull and the
bear scenario.
Earnings Growth Forecasts May Require a Robust Economic Recovery Secular
Bear Markets and the Volatility of Inflation Trading Volume Separates
Bull Markets from Bear Rallies A Stock
Market Rebound Closely Linked with Economic Data Surprises
Market Valuations During U.S. Recessions Stock
Market Valuations Following the Great Moderation Will Global
Markets Take Their Lead
from the U.S.?
Capacity reduction in Chinese metals has caused iron ore to recover
from a 5 - year
bear market,
and driven a
bull market in the metals.
This post is part 2 of last week's post about the duration
and magnitude of all
bull market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871, which used the S&P 500 price series from Shiller's publicly available database and the method adopted by Butler Philbrick Gordillo and Associates» post What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh A
bull market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871, which used the S&P 500 price series
from Shiller's publicly available database
and the method adopted by Butler Philbrick Gordillo
and Associates» post What the
Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh A
Bull Giveth, the
Bear Taketh Away.
Market Briefing: S&P 500
Bull &
Bear Markets And Corrections This compendium from Yardeni Research shows the length and depth of declines of all bear markets (declines of 20 % or better) and corrections (losses between 10 % and 20 %) from 1929 to mid-January 2
Bear Markets And Corrections This compendium from Yardeni Research shows the length and depth of declines of all bear markets (declines of 20 % or better) and corrections (losses between 10 % and 20 %) from 1929 to mid-Januar
Markets And Corrections This compendium from Yardeni Research shows the length and depth of declines of all bear markets (declines of 20 % or better) and corrections (losses between 10 % and 20 %) from 1929 to mid-January 20
And Corrections This compendium
from Yardeni Research shows the length
and depth of declines of all bear markets (declines of 20 % or better) and corrections (losses between 10 % and 20 %) from 1929 to mid-January 20
and depth of declines of all
bear markets (declines of 20 % or better) and corrections (losses between 10 % and 20 %) from 1929 to mid-January 2
bear markets (declines of 20 % or better) and corrections (losses between 10 % and 20 %) from 1929 to mid-Januar
markets (declines of 20 % or better)
and corrections (losses between 10 % and 20 %) from 1929 to mid-January 20
and corrections (losses between 10 %
and 20 %) from 1929 to mid-January 20
and 20 %)
from 1929 to mid-January 2016.
The IS dates will be
from 1/1/2002 to 12/31/2011, which gives us 10 years of data
and bull /
bear market cycle.
If you think we're going to bounce back
from this
bear and move directly into another decade - long
bull market, you won't want to pursue this strategy.
This may save investors
from losing a little here
and there in
bear markets, but they're also going to miss out on profits during
bull markets.
As you can see, this secular
bear market was typical of most secular
bear markets, such as the one
from 1966 - 1982, composed of mostly vicious cyclical
bull and bear markets that result in a mostly sideways long term movement.
We may have cyclical (shorter - term)
bull and bear markets within that period (as we have seen), but the odds are another great
bull (as
from 1982 — 2000) won't be here until, you read it correctly, 2017.
From the share price peak in 1905, we saw
bull and bear markets aplenty, but the
bear market of 1982 (
and the accompanying stagflation binge) saw share prices in real terms fall below the levels first reached in 1905 — a 77 - year span with no price appreciation in U.S. stocks.
This company has held strong through both
bull and bear markets —
and it consistently has received high ratings
from the insurer rating agencies.