This lack of agreement is due to the fact that their models ignore major forcings — both from variations of solar activity and
from changes in ocean circulation.
Here we examine the hypothesis4 that CO2 variations arose
from changes in ocean circulation that affected the distribution of chemical properties and thus of P CO 2 in the surface waters of the world ocean.
There is also a natural variability of the climate system (about a zero reference point) that produces El Nino and La Nina effects arising
from changes in ocean circulation patterns that can make the global temperature increase or decrease, over and above the global warming due to CO2.
They range
from changes in ocean circulation patterns caused by glacial meltwater entering the ocean to the cosmic - impact theory.
Not exact matches
The foundation of the research involved tracking the
changes in ocean circulation in new detail by studying three sediment cores extracted
from the seafloor of the Gulf of Mexico
in 2010 during a scientific cruise.
Looking at shifts
in Manley's winter temperatures
from year to year, he says, gives a good reading of important natural cycles that influence climate, such as
changes in ocean circulation like the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Ongoing
changes in ocean circulation patterns, which are helping to drive warm water
from other parts of the sea closer to the Antarctic continent, are also believed to be a major factor.
«These conditions will cause
changes in phytoplankton growth and
ocean circulation around Antarctica, with the net effect of transferring nutrients
from the upper
ocean to the deep
ocean,» said lead author J. Keith Moore, UCI professor of Earth system science.
Retreating sea ice
in the Iceland and Greenland Seas may be
changing the
circulation of warm and cold water
in the Atlantic
Ocean, and could ultimately impact the climate
in Europe, says a new study by an atmospheric physicist
from the University of Toronto Mississauga (UTM) and his colleagues
in Great Britain, Norway and the United States.
In the North Atlantic, more heat has been retained at deep levels as a result of
changes to both the
ocean and atmospheric
circulations, which have led to the winter atmosphere extracting less heat
from the
ocean.
However, the name «El Niño», which originally has its origin
from changes in the
ocean, is linked to
changes in the atmospheric
circulation.
Dynamical effects (
changes in the winds and
ocean circulation) can have just as large an impact, locally as the radiative forcing
from greenhouse gases.
The Past and Future
Ocean Circulation from a Contemporary Perspective,
in AGU Monograph, 173, A. Schmittner, J. Chiang and S. Hemming, Eds., 53 - 74, (pdf)» Wunsch's publications page is great food - for - thought, I particularly enjoyed his papers on Ice Age
changes and the Milankovitch cycles.
As the planet warms
from the buildup of greenhouse gases, there may be a
change in the atmospheric
circulations near the equatorial Pacific
Ocean.
The main feedbacks between climate and the ice sheet arise
from changes in ice elevation, atmospheric and
ocean circulation, and sea - ice distribution.
You've got the radiative physics, the measurements of
ocean temperature and land temperature, the
changes in ocean heat content (Hint — upwards, whereas if if was just a matter of
circulation moving heat around you might expect something more simple) and of course observed predictions such as stratospheric cooling which you don't get when warming occurs
from oceanic
circulation.
«This expedition offered insights into Earth's history, ranging
from mountain - building
in New Zealand to the shifting movements of Earth's tectonic plates to
changes in ocean circulation and global climate.»
Changes in Southern Ocean circulation resulting from changes in Southern Ocean winds (23) or buoyancy fluxes (24) have been identified as the dominant cause of atmospheric CO2 changes (9,
Changes in Southern
Ocean circulation resulting
from changes in Southern Ocean winds (23) or buoyancy fluxes (24) have been identified as the dominant cause of atmospheric CO2 changes (9,
changes in Southern
Ocean winds (23) or buoyancy fluxes (24) have been identified as the dominant cause of atmospheric CO2
changes (9,
changes (9,10,25).
However, the name «El Niño», which originally has its origin
from changes in the
ocean, is linked to
changes in the atmospheric
circulation.
In attempting to substantiate this internal variability hypothesis, Spencer & Braswell (2011) assumed that the change in top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux due to cloud cover changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating of the climate system through ocean circulatio
In attempting to substantiate this internal variability hypothesis, Spencer & Braswell (2011) assumed that the
change in top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux due to cloud cover changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating of the climate system through ocean circulatio
in top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux due to cloud cover
changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating of the climate system through
ocean circulation.
Recent evidence
from ice - core drilling
in Greenland indicates that similar fluctuations also occurred during the previous interglacial period, possibly due to rapid
changes in ocean circulation.
Strong evidence
from ocean sediment data and from modelling links abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period and glacial - interglacial transition to changes in the Atlantic Ocean circula
ocean sediment data and
from modelling links abrupt climate
changes during the last glacial period and glacial - interglacial transition to
changes in the Atlantic
Ocean circula
Ocean circulation.
Another contributor is
changes in ocean circulation which cause less heat is transported upwards
from the deeper, warmer layer.
Energy budgets
change all the time
from large natural variations
in ocean and atmospheric
circulation.
Here a simple biologically and physically - based model of sapflow potential is used to assess observed
changes in sapflow across the Northeastern US
from 1980 to 2006; document the correspondence between these observations and independent downscaled atmosphere
ocean general
circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of conditions during this period; and quantify
changes in sapflow potential through 2100.
Spencer & Braswell (2011) assumed that the
change in top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy flux due to cloud cover
changes from 2000 to 2010 was twice as large as the heating of the climate system through
ocean circulation.
The cryosphere derives its importance to the climate system
from a variety of effects, including its high reflectivity (albedo) for solar radiation, its low thermal conductivity, its large thermal inertia, its potential for affecting
ocean circulation (through exchange of freshwater and heat) and atmospheric
circulation (through topographic
changes), its large potential for affecting sea level (through growth and melt of land ice), and its potential for affecting greenhouse gases (through
changes in permafrost)(Chapter 4).
This polar amplification is thought to be due largely to
changes in sea ice, with some contributions
from changes in snow cover, atmospheric and
ocean circulation, cloud cover and the presence of soot.
«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component
in predictability studies of both regional and global climate
change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes
in coupled climate models is an important «open question
in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific
Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies
from observations
in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate
change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future
changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus
in changes in either mode also affects confidence
in projected
changes in the overlying atmospheric
circulation.»»
That would
change the air
circulation patterns resulting
in the observed wind effect on the
ocean surfaces but would itself have been caused by
changes in the rate of release or absorption of energy
from the
ocean surfaces.
Evidence
from the Pacific and the Atlantic suggests that nutrient supply to the upper productive layer of the
ocean is declining due to reductions
in the Meridional Overturning
Circulation and upwelling (McPhaden and Zhang, 2002; Curry and Mauritzen, 2005) and
changes in the deposition of wind - borne nutrients.
Ongoing
changes in ocean circulation patterns, which are helping to drive warm water
from other parts of the sea closer to the Antarctic continent, are also believed to be a major factor.
Tropics affected: Konrad A. Hughen, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Scott J. Lehman, Michaele Kashgarian, John Southon, Larry C. Peterson, Richard Alley, & Daniel M. Sigman, «Deglacial
changes in ocean circulation from an extended radiocarbon calibration,» Nature 391:65 - 68 (1 January 1998).
«Feb. 25, 2008 — Predictions that the 21st century is safe
from major
circulation changes in the North Atlantic
Ocean may not be as comforting as they seem, according to a Penn State researcher.»
They concluded, «
ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO2 trends but rather that
circulation / biogeochemical
changes account for > 90 % of pH variability
in the Sargasso Sea and more variability
in the last century than would be predicted
from anthropogenic uptake of CO2 alone.»
The most natural type of long term variability is
in my view based on slowly varying
changes in ocean circulation, which doesn't necessarily involve major transfer of heat
from one place to another but influences cloudiness and other large scale weather patterns and through that the net energy flux of the Earth system.
These millennial - scale teleconnections resulted
from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic
Ocean related to changes in the ocean circula
Ocean related to
changes in the
ocean circula
ocean circulation.
To better understand these discrepancies, a recent study published
in Geophysical Research Letters investigates the drivers of
changes in deep
ocean circulation across a range of modern and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21000 years ago) climate simulations
from the latest Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP).
States that other feedbacks likely to emerge are those
in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases,
changes in the distribution of vegetation,
changes in surface soil moisture,
changes in atmospheric water vapor arising
from higher temperatures and greater areas of open
ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning
circulation of the
ocean, and
changes in Arctic clouds resulting
from changes in water vapor content
The workshop was organized to allow participants to take a global perspective and consider the influence of the Arctic
in the context of forcing
from other components of the climate system, such as
changes in the tropics,
ocean circulation, and mid-latitude sea surface temperature.
Independent evidence
from multiple sources suggest — if «real» — that recent warming was all cloud
changes associated with decadal
changes in ocean and atmospheric
circulation.
Some examples
from energy balance model calculations indicate that: (1) solar variability has a near - global response, with the amplitude of response slightly larger over land; (2) volcanism has a proportionately larger amplitude of response over land than over
ocean; and (3) the most oft - cited mode of internal variability,
changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline
circulation, has a hemispheric asymmetry
in response.
However, it remains a major scientific challenge to model and project the
changes of the magnitude and intensity of subsurface oxygen depletion because it depends on
changes in ocean circulation, rates of de-nitrification, and nutrient runoff
from land, and because global data coverage for chemical and biological parameters remains poor.
Although we focus on a hypothesized CR - cloud connection, we note that it is difficult to separate
changes in the CR flux
from accompanying variations
in solar irradiance and the solar wind, for which numerous causal links to climate have also been proposed, including: the influence of UV spectral irradiance on stratospheric heating and dynamic stratosphere - troposphere links (Haigh 1996); UV irradiance and radiative damage to phytoplankton influencing the release of volatile precursor compounds which form sulphate aerosols over
ocean environments (Kniveton et al. 2003); an amplification of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations by the addition of energy
in cloud - free regions enhancing tropospheric
circulation features (Meehl et al. 2008; Roy & Haigh 2010); numerous solar - related influences (including solar wind inputs) to the properties of the global electric circuit (GEC) and associated microphysical cloud
changes (Tinsley 2008).
The natural internal variability of the climate system arises
from factors such as El Niño, fluctuations
in the thermohaline
circulation, and
changes in ocean heat content.
Changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) with enhanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission have been hypothesized to induce a dynamic air /
ocean circulation response resulting
from stratospheric ozone production (Lean & Rind 1998).
It includes results
from a variety of different empirical approaches, including (1) time series analyses of the published temperature record; (2) examination of the response of the earth's outgoing radiation response to transient climate events; (3) calorimetric studies of the
ocean - atmosphere system; (4) mechanisms for secular climate
change arising
from ocean circulation systems and astronomical influences; and (4) radiative and convective heat transfer
in the
oceans and atmosphere.
Though more work is needed to fully understand these long term trends, especially what happens
from the mid-1970's, it is likely that
changes in ocean circulation involving some combination of the Atlantic meridional overtuning
circulation and the subtropical cells are required to explain the observations.
The air
circulation changes ensure that over time the energy radiated to space matches the energy received
from the sun despite disruptions
in the flow caused by the effects of the
ocean cycles or
changes in the composition of the air.
Driven by
changes in ocean circulation, the rapid sea level rise will bring increased risk of damage
from hurricanes and winter storm surges, researchers say.