Small additional biases, discussed above,
from changes in sea ice and differences in warming rates of SST and air just above the open ocean (which it appears the Cowtan and Way dataset does not adjust for) might push up the bias marginally.
To a large extent that is because the 9 % figure also includes an effect, when anomaly temperatures are used,
from changes in sea ice extent.
The environmental changes brought on by ocean acidification could pose a significant threat to Arctic ecosystems that are already facing challenges
from changes in sea ice distribution, warming and increased freshwater discharge.
There's plenty more in the report summary, of course, on everything
from changes in sea ice to ocean chemistry.
Not exact matches
We have much better — and more conclusive — evidence for climate
change from more boring sources like global temperature averages, or the extent of global
sea ice, or thousands of years» worth of C02 levels stored frozen
in ice cores.
In this dark place, so far
from human eyes, significant environmental
change may already be underway, which could impact how quickly the
ice sheet slips into the
sea and, subsequently, how quickly global
sea levels may rise.
After further analysis of the data, the scientists found that although a strong El Niño
changes wind patterns
in West Antarctica
in a way that promotes flow of warm ocean waters towards the
ice shelves to increase melting
from below, it also increases snowfall particularly along the Amundsen
Sea sector.
Changes in flow patterns of warm Pacific Ocean air
from the south were driving earlier spring snowmelt, while decreasing summer
sea ice had the greatest influence on later onset of snowpack
in the fall.
But the most recent report
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change — the evidence of 600 climate researchers
in 32 countries reporting
changes to Earth's atmosphere,
ice and
seas —
in 2013 stated «human influence on the climate system is clear.»
In late June, the U.S. Government Accountability Office released an assessment of how the consequences of climate change, from rising temperatures and sea levels to changes in precipitation patterns and sea ice cover, might impact the militar
In late June, the U.S. Government Accountability Office released an assessment of how the consequences of climate
change,
from rising temperatures and
sea levels to
changes in precipitation patterns and sea ice cover, might impact the militar
in precipitation patterns and
sea ice cover, might impact the military.
But the
ice core - derived climate records
from the Andes are also impacted
from the west — specifically by El Niño, a temporary
change in climate, which is driven by
sea surface temperatures
in the tropical Pacific.
The ongoing disappearance of
sea ice in the Arctic
from elevated temperatures is a factor to
changes in atmospheric pressure that control jet streams of air, explained James Overland, an oceanographer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.
Retreating
sea ice in the Iceland and Greenland
Seas may be
changing the circulation of warm and cold water
in the Atlantic Ocean, and could ultimately impact the climate
in Europe, says a new study by an atmospheric physicist
from the University of Toronto Mississauga (UTM) and his colleagues
in Great Britain, Norway and the United States.
The research concludes that for other
changes, such as regional warming and
sea ice changes, the observations over the satellite - era since 1979 are not yet long enough for the signal of human - induced climate
change to be clearly separated
from the strong natural variability
in the region
Understanding Antarctic climate
change is important not only because of the potential
sea level rise locked up
in the vast Antarctic
ice sheet, but also the shift
in the westerly winds has moved rainfall away
from southern Australia.
The publicly available report also divides the Arctic Ocean into 12 regions, and calculates the
changes in the dates of spring
sea ice retreat and fall freeze - up
from NASA satellite images taken between 1979 and 2013.
The past climates that forced these
changes in ice volume and
sea level were reconstructed mainly
from temperature - sensitive measurements
in ocean cores
from around the globe, and
from ice cores.
As global temperatures continue to increase, the hastening rise of those
seas as glaciers and
ice sheets melt threatens the very existence of the small island nation, Kiribati, whose corals offered up these vital clues
from the warming past — and of an even hotter future, shortly after the next
change in the winds.
From an altitude of just over 700 km, CryoSat will precisely monitor
changes in the thickness of
sea ice and variations
in the thickness of the
ice sheets on land.
It could be a
change in algae or other food for them, or it could be that
sea ice provides shelter
from predators, or affects the currents
in some way.
Furthermore, we must understand how
changes in sea ice cover affect the feeding ecology of humpback whales and their competitors
in the short - term and the dynamics of krill populations over the longer term, particularly given the increasing pressure
from commercial krill harvests [36].
The global mean temperature rise of less than 1 degree C
in the past century does not seem like much, but it is associated with a winter temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees C over most of the Arctic
in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss of
ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease of 15 to 20 %
in late summer
sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host of other measured signs of anomalous and rapid climate
change.
A researcher
from the Finnish Meteorological Institute has been participating
in a comparison of how well global ocean models respond to the
changes to
sea ice and close - to - surface water.
This effort is going on, with major projects such as the EU funded
Ice2
sea project, which has brought together researchers across disciplines,
from across Europe,
in order to address the challenges faced
in predicting the contribution of
ice sheets to future
sea level
change.
While a 14 % loss is not an insignificant amount, it's smaller than some of the
changes in Antarctic
sea ice recorded during the middle of the 20th century, as estimated
from whaling ship logbooks, the paper says.
When I talk to mets who question climate
change, I usually try to address the specific topics they are questioning (
sea ice, temp record, etc.) because they may be getting some misinformation
from out
in web land.
The space agency is launching these missions at a time when decades of observations
from the ground, air, and space have revealed signs of
change in Earth's
ice sheets,
sea ice, glaciers, snow cover and permafrost.
Positive energy content
change means an increase
in stored energy (i.e., heat content
in oceans, latent heat
from reduced
ice or
sea ice volumes, heat content
in the continents excluding latent heat
from permafrost
changes, and latent and sensible heat and potential and kinetic energy
in the atmosphere).
Rates of
sea - level rise calculated
from tide gauge data tend to exceed bottom - up estimates derived
from summing loss of
ice mass, thermal expansion and
changes in land storage.
Our new study, published today
in the journal Earth's Future, finds that — at least
from measurements of global
sea level and continental - scale Antarctic
ice - sheet
changes — scientists won't be able to tell which road the planet is on until the 2060s.
Given that the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet has a total sea level equivalent of 3.3 m1, with 1.5 m from Pine Island Glacier alone4, marine ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major changes in rates of sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred yea
Ice Sheet has a total
sea level equivalent of 3.3 m1, with 1.5 m
from Pine Island Glacier alone4, marine
ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major changes in rates of sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred yea
ice sheet collapse could be a significant challenge for future generations, with major
changes in rates of
sea level rise being possible within just the next couple of hundred years.
While it is often occurring
in remote regions, ongoing
change with the cryosphere has impacts on people all around the world:
sea level rise affects coastlines globally, billions of people rely on water
from snowpack, and the diminishing
sea ice that covers the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role
in Earth's climate and weather patterns.
Writing
in Nature Climate
Change, two scientists
from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) say the melting of quite a small volume of
ice on the East Antarctic shore could ultimately trigger a discharge of
ice into the ocean which would result
in unstoppable
sea - level rise for thousands of years ahead.
The main feedbacks between climate and the
ice sheet arise
from changes in ice elevation, atmospheric and ocean circulation, and
sea -
ice distribution.
During periods when
ice sheets have been relatively stable, such as the last several millennia (the late Holocene), sub-millennial
sea - level variability arose primarily
from changes in atmosphere / ocean dynamics.
Drawing
from actual recordings of Larsen C — the fourth largest
ice shelf
in Antarctica, which is rapidly melting — the artists created a haunting, contemplative soundtrack and immersive installation that reminds viewers of the threat of
sea level rise and climate
change.
Natural climate variability of the Arctic atmosphere, the impact of Greenland and PBL stability
changes K. Dethloff *, A. Rinke *, W. Dorn *, D. Handorf *, J. H. Christensen ** * AWI Potsdam, ** DMI Copenhagen Unforced and forced long - term model integrations
from 500 to 1000 years with global coupled atmosphere - ocean -
sea -
ice models have been analysed
in order to find out whether the different models are able to simulate the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) similar to the real atmosphere.
The first is to emphasize your point that degassing of CO2
from the oceans is not simply a matter of warmer water reducing CO2 solubility, and that important additional factors include
changes in wind patterns, reduction
in sea ice cover to reveal a larger surface for gas escape, and upwelling of CO2
from depths consequent to the
changing climate patterns.
Other factors would include: — albedo shifts (both
from ice > water, and
from increased biological activity, and
from edge melt revealing more land, and
from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct effect of CO2 on
ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly warm, rain fall on
ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting of
sea ice shelf increasing mobility of glaciers; —
sea water getting under parts of the
ice sheets where the base is below
sea level; — melt water lubricating the
ice sheet base; —
changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
More ground turns
from white reflective snow to black, heat absorbant dirt.The same effect occurs as
sea ice is lost.The corals blanch, and, as I stated last year on this site, the shutdown of the north Atlantic current will occur, since the salinity level studies I spoke of last year, off Greenland, continue to show that the upwelling mechanisms driving the North Atlanic current are
in severe jeapordy, because the
change in salinity levels effects the driver of the current, the upwelling and downwelling of different salinity levels off Greenland.
If I read the some of the conclusions
in the latest report on Abrupt Climate
Change from the US Climate
Change Science Program http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap3-4/final-report/default.htm,
in particular Chapter 2, it would seem possible to come up with multiple feet of
sea level rise due to the understanding of
ice dynamics.
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether mass loss from these ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more lik
From recent instrumental observations alone we are therefore unable to predict whether mass loss
from these ice sheets will vary linearly with changes in the rate of sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more lik
from these
ice sheets will vary linearly with
changes in the rate of
sea - level rise, or if a non-linear response is more likely.
«This uncertainty is illustrated by Pollard et al. (2015), who found that addition of hydro - fracturing and cliff failure into their
ice sheet model increased simulated
sea level rise
from 2 m to 17 m,
in response to only 2 °C ocean warming and accelerated the time for substantial
change from several centuries to several decades.»
Robert Bindschadler of NASA and Tad Pfeffer at the University of Colorado, both glacier specialists, told me that they saw scant evidence that a yards - per - century rise
in seas could be produced
from the
ice sheets that currently cloak Greenland and West Antarctica, which are very different than what existed
in past periods of fast
sea - level
changes.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work
in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations
in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike
in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence
in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation
in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel
in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role
in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST
changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published
in Nature),
in showing how
changes in radiative forcing
from volcanoes can affect ENSO,
in examining the role of solar variations
in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little
Ice Age, the relationship between the climate
changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global
sea level, and even a bit of work
in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
My take is that the tug of war over what's causing today's telegenic heat waves, floods, tempests — and even Arctic
sea -
ice retreats — distracts
from the high confidence scientists have
in the long - term (but less sexy) picture: that more CO2 will lead to centuries of climate and coastal
changes with big consequences for a growing human population (for better and worse
in the short run, and likely mostly for the worse
in the long run).
Peter Winsor of Woods Hole also provided more detail on why he sees no chance of
changes in sea ice from the volcanism far below:
The song took on new meaning for me
in 2003, when I accompanied a team of climate and ocean researchers on their annual expedition aimed at studying
changes in the Arctic Ocean beneath the shifting
sea ice just a few dozen miles
from the North Pole.
[ANDY REVKIN comments: The Antarctic has seen no
change in the extent of floating
sea ice in recent years,
in stark contrast to the situation
in the Arctic, and all of this shows the Earth's climate system, particularly at the poles, is not simple — and thus not likely to follow a simple trajectory under a greenhouse push
from humans.
From the still - violent Amazon frontier to the thawing North Pole
sea ice there are signs that science, education, transparency and global communication networks can foster progress even
in the face of rapid
change.