The data and the statistical analysis does not provide the evidence that the so called «pause», a time period with a lower trend estimate than the longer - term trend estimate, was more than just a short - term fluctuation around the median warming trend, mostly due to short - term unforced internal variability in the Earth system (and some contribution
from decreasing solar activity and increased reflecting aerosols in the atmosphere, counteracting the increased greenhose gas forcing to some degree), like the «acceleration» over the 16 - year period from 1992 to 2007 (e.g., UAH trend: 0.296 + / - 0.213 (2 sigma) deg.
Completely independently of this oceanographic data, a simple correlation analysis (Foster and Rahmstorf ERL 2011) showed that the flatter warming trend of the last 10 years was mostly a result of natural variability, namely the recently more frequent appearance of cold La Niña events in the tropical Pacific and a small contribution
from decreasing solar activity.
Not exact matches
«When these dates were compared with radiocarbon data
from tree rings, we noted
decreased levels of carbon - 14 — indicating increased levels of
solar activity — at these same points.»
«It could therefore be concluded that both the
decreasing correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic
activity, and the deviation of the global temperature temperature long - term trend
from solar activity as expressed by the sunspot index are due to the increased number of high speed streams of
solar wind on the
decreasing phase and the minimum of sunspot in the last decade.»
The correlation between the two quantities is 0.85 with p < 0.01 for the whole period studied.It could therefore be concluded that both the
decreasing correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic
activity, and the deviation of the global temperature long - term trend
from solar activity as expressed by sunspot index are due to the increased number of high - speed streams of
solar wind on the declining phase and in the minimum of sunspot cycle in the last decades.»
This time interval covered the
decrease in
solar activity from the maximum of
solar cycle 21 to
solar minimum and the onset of cycle 22.
Bull ---, are you capable of seeing that the time - integral of
solar activity decreased from 1940's to 1970's?
-- August 16, 2008 — Excerpt: An expert
from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that in about ten years the Earth will enter a «little ice age» which will last
from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the
decrease in
solar activity.
Note, for example, how the temperature trend in the first decade of the 21st century was generally flat because an upward push by anthropogenic forces was temporarily offset by a downward pull as
solar activity decreased and the oceans absorbed more heat than usual
from the atmosphere (sea water temperatures continued to rise).»
For example, the scientific explanation that temperatures have not risen since 2001 is because an «upward push by anthropogenic forces was temporarily offset by a downward pull as
solar activity decreased and the oceans absorbed more heat than usual
from the atmosphere (sea water temperatures continued to rise)».
Last year, a team of European researchers unveiled a scientific model at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales predicting a «mini ice age»
from 2030 to 2040 as a result of
decreased solar activity.
Anyway, the long term trend seen in the cosmic ray flux, after you average out the 11 - year
solar cycle, is an increase
from the 50's to the 70's (because of a
decreased solar activity), and then a
decrease from the 70's to 90's (i.e., increase in
solar activity.
You get the information to decide what parts of the astronomical cycles cause a
decrease in
solar activity from solar activity records, and then propose that those configurations cause a
decrease in
solar activity.
The root causes of warming for the medieval period, increased
solar irradiance coupled with
decreased volcanic
activity (38, 39), and in recent decades, anthropogenic
activities with some contribution
from solar irradiance (1), are not identical.
This pattern derives
from the fact that the cosmic ray flux record, which is inversely proportional to
solar magnetic
activity, presents a slight
decrease from about 1970 to 2000 (Scafetta 2013c, Fig. 20).