2016 Sea Ice Outlook predictions
from dynamical modeling contributions (labeled in blue and green fonts) and from all other methods (labeled in grey).
Sea Ice Outlook predictions
from dynamical modeling contributions are in blue (coupled) and green (ocean - sea ice).
Sea Ice Outlook predictions
from dynamical modeling contributions (blue and green) and from all other methods (grey) for the July Outlook.
Our orbital fits also favor low eccentricities, consistent with predictions
from dynamical modeling.
This year we received 14 June SIO submissions
from dynamical models, of which 3 were from ice - ocean models forced by atmospheric reanalysis or other atmospheric model output and 12 were from fully - coupled general circulation models.
We also received 3 submissions of sea ice probability (SIP) for the August report, two of
them from dynamical models (NRL - SSC / Metzger et al. and UK MetOffice / Peterson et al.) and one from a statistical model (Slater).
For the July report, we received 14 June SIO submissions
from dynamical models: 5 from ice - ocean models forced by atmospheric reanalysis or other atmospheric model output (in green in Figure 3) and 9 from fully coupled general circulation models (in blue in Figure 3).
Not exact matches
Historically, researchers have divided up data
from a
dynamical system through Markov partitions — a function that describes a point in space in relation to time, such as a
model that describes the swing of a pendulum.
LIGO's first detection of merging black holes is perfectly consistent with the
dynamical formation
model from the Northwestern research team and is what you would expect
from a globular cluster, the researchers say.
A global climate
model or general circulation
model aims to describe climate behavior by integrating a variety of fluid -
dynamical, chemical, or even biological equations that are either derived directly
from physical laws (e.g.
The highest prediction of 6.0 million square kilometers is based on a
dynamical model forecast using the US Navy Earth System Model (NESM), whereas the lowest prediction of 3.4 million square kilometers comes from a heuristic contribu
model forecast using the US Navy Earth System
Model (NESM), whereas the lowest prediction of 3.4 million square kilometers comes from a heuristic contribu
Model (NESM), whereas the lowest prediction of 3.4 million square kilometers comes
from a heuristic contribution.
To understand the structure and
dynamical properties of such systems, the research team headed by Ilya Shmulevich integrates data
from a variety of measurements using
models and techniques
from mathematics, physics, and engineering.
Four years later, another team of astronomers using the 2.5 - meter Isaac Newton Telescope at Roque de los Muchachos Observatory on La Palma (and relying on evidence supplied by their own
dynamical models of Sagittarius and on preliminary results
from the international Sloan Digital Sky Survey team) announced that they had found an excess of young stars belonging to a stellar system located at 183,000 ly (56,000 pc)
from the center of the Milky Way.
There may be reason to strongly suspect that in any sufficiently complicated
dynamical system
model (such as climate) with stochastic parameters (e.g., exactly when and where a lightning strike starts a major wildfire or a major submarine earthquake perturbs ocean circulation in a region or a major volcanic eruption introduces stratospheric aerosols), it is almost certain that any given run of the
model will have periods of significant deviation
from the mean of multiple runs.
Irreducible imprecision
from dynamical complexity can only be asessed by a systematically designed family of
models.
These results are obtained
from 16 global general circulation
models downscaled with different combinations of
dynamical methods... http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00766.1
A unified treatment of weather and climate
models (i.e. the same
dynamical cores for the atmosphere and ocean are used for
models across the range of time scales) transfers confidence
from the weather and seasonal climate forecast
models to the climate
models used in century scale simulations.
Spatial forecasts
from both a statistical
model submitted by Tivy and a
dynamical model submitted by Zhang are discussed in the following section on the Northwest Passage.
We employ
dynamical models for seasonal forecast because they have capability to resolve and predict details
from pan-Arctic to local scales in non-stationary and physically consistent manner.
Nine contributions stemmed
from fully - coupled
dynamical models, and five
from ocean - sea ice
models forced by atmospheric reanalyses or atmospheric
model output.
This study evaluates the hydrologic prediction skill of a
dynamical climate
model - driven hydrologic prediction system (CM - HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically - downscaled outputs
from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS).
July 2016 Sea Ice Outlook predictions of Sea Ice Probability (SIP)
from 5
dynamical models, the mean of the 5, and the standard deviation across the 5 SIP forecasts.
The latest
dynamical model forecasts are calling for well above average precipitation throughout California during the January - March period, and the recent forecasts
from the CFS
model have shifted towards a wet December as well.
''... Camargo and Wing write that (5) «efforts on
modeling improvements,
from convective parameterizations to new numerical methods and
dynamical cores, also need to continue to occur.»
In a series of Atlantic basin - specific
dynamical downscaling studies (Bender et al. 2010; Knutson et al. 2013), we attempted to address both of these limitations by letting the Atlantic basin regional
model of Knutson et al. (2008) provide the overall storm frequency information, and then downscaling each individual storm
from the regional
model study into the GFDL hurricane prediction system.
In other words, there is little evidence
from current
dynamical models that 21st century climate warming will lead to large (~ 300 %) increases in tropical storm numbers, hurricane numbers, or PDI in the Atlantic.
Separating out fully - coupled
dynamical models from ice - ocean
models shows that fully coupled
models give a slightly lower forecast with a median of 4.57 versus 4.62, yet have a larger spread (Figure 2).
Further, the absence of an increase in moderate duration tropical storm counts is consistent with expectations
from high - resolution
dynamical models of a modest (and possibly negative) sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical storm counts to increasing greenhouse gases (e.g., see Bengtsson et al 2007, Knutson et al 2008, FAQ on Knutson et al 2008, Zhao et al 2009, Emanuel et al 2008)