The fact that in some such areas there may also be flooding
from extreme precipitation events is no cause for comfort.
Not exact matches
For instance, though about 30 percent of farmers surveyed agreed that
extreme weather
events will become more frequent in the future, 52 percent agreed that farmers should take additional steps to protect their land
from increased
precipitation.
Based on over a decade of asthma hospitalization data (115,923 cases
from 2000 - 2012), researchers observed higher risk of asthma hospitalization after
extreme heat or
extreme precipitation events.
Daniel Swain and colleagues model how the frequency of these rapid, year - to - year transitions
from extreme dry to wet conditions — which they dub «
precipitation whiplash
events» — may change in California's future as a consequence of man - made warming.
So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic influences on large scale increase in
precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread increase in heavy
precipitation could be due to an unusual
event of natural variability.The intensification of
extreme rainfall is expected with warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing
from climate variability — the separation will always be statistical in nature.
Changes in
precipitation regimes and
extreme events can cause ecosystem transitions, increase transport of nutrients and pollutants to downstream ecosystems, and overwhelm the ability of natural systems to mitigate harm to people
from these
events.
Heat waves,
extreme precipitation events and flooding or
extreme droughts, are also what actually cause climate damage — for instance lower agricultural productivity (as during the extremely hot 2003 summer in Western Europe) or biodiversity decline at ecosystem levels ranging
from aquatic desert systems to entire rainforest biomes.
Evidence that
extreme precipitation is increasing is based primarily on analysis1, 2,3 of hourly and daily
precipitation observations
from the U.S. Cooperative Observer Network, and is supported by observed increases in atmospheric water vapor.4 Recent publications have projected an increase in
extreme precipitation events, 1,5 with some areas getting larger increases6 and some getting decreases.7, 2
Northeast states can expect more climate change related heat waves — with significantly more days above 90 degrees F — and flooding
from sea level rise and
extreme precipitation events.
The IPCC reports that the risks associated with
extreme weather
events (heat waves,
extreme precipitation, and the like) are moderately increased with the approximately 1 °C warming that we have already experienced (the recent report
from the National Academies would support that conclusion) and that further warming will increase those risks.
Output
from global circulation models indicates that climate variability will continue to be an important characteristic of the region in the future [52], but that climate change may increase the risk of
extreme climatic
events such as multi-decade droughts and
extreme winter
precipitation [53], [54].
The report, written by 220 experts
from 62 countries, finds that climate change has already contributed to changes in
extreme events — such as heat waves, high temperatures, and heavy
precipitation — in many regions over the past 50 years.
It is instructive to compare these numbers with those characteristic of a set of the years during 1979 — 2012 with no or only one major regional
extreme event (in terms of land surface temperature and land
precipitation anomalies) in the NH midlatitudes,
from late April / early May to late September / early October, as reported yearly since 1993 in the World Meteorological Organization statements on the status of the global climate (see also ref.
In contrast, while many African countries experience a similar trend in rapid urban coastal growth, the level of economic development is generally lower and consequently the capacity to adapt is smaller Coastal industries, their supporting infrastructure including transport (ports, roads, rail and airports), power and water supply, storm water and sewerage are highly sensitive to a range of
extreme weather and climate
events including temporary and permanent flooding arising
from extreme precipitation, high winds, storm surges and sea level rise.
If the negative effects of climate change, the rising air temperatures, the changing
precipitation, the prevalence of
extreme weather
events, and the rising sea levels, become too disruptive or costly, we have the option to deploy certain climate altering technologies to remove greenhouse gases directly
from the air or reflect sunlight back out of the atmosphere before it warms the earth.
Indicators based on daily
precipitation data show more mixed patterns of change but significant increases have been seen in the
extreme amount derived
from wet spells and number of heavy rainfall
events.
Whilst the extent of climate change is often expressed in a single figure — global temperature — the effects of climate change (such as temperature,
precipitation and the frequency of
extreme weather
events) will vary greatly
from place to place.
9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate
from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme
Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2
Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in
extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions
Here is an excerpt of the research paper, «When It Rains It Pours»,
from Environment America, showing a statistically significant spike in flash flooding and other
extreme precipitation events since 1948: «Weather records show that storms with
extreme precipitation have become more frequent over the last 60 years.